Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

Synoptic characteristics of heavy snowfalls at Busan of Korea caused by polar lows over the East/Japan Sea

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The results of the present study prove that snowfall occurred due to the polar low (PL) in the Korean Peninsula and six cases of snowfall exceeding a snow...     

Climate change signal analysis for Northeast Asian surface temperature

Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO42- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the di     

Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO

The influence of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal winter Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and atmospheric—only model (AGCM). The AGCM is forced with daily SSTs interpolated from pentad mean CGCM SSTs. Forecast skill is examined using serial extended simulations spanning 26 different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days providing a total of 598 30-day simulations. By comparing both sets of experiments, which share the same atmospheric components, the influence of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes on the simulation and prediction of MJO can be studied. The mean MJO intensity possesses more realistic amplitude in the CGCM than in AGCM. In general, the ocean–atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the eastward propagating MJO and the phase relationship between convection (OLR) and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. Both the CGCM and observations exhibit a near-quadrature relationship between OLR and SST, with the former lagging by about two pentads. However, the AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. As the initial conditions are the same in both models, the additional forcing by SST anomalies in the CGCM extends the prediction skill beyond that of the AGCM. To test the applicability of the CGCM to real-time prediction, we compute the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and compared it with the index computed from observations. RMM1 (RMM2) falls away rapidly to 0.5 after 17–18 (15–16) days in the AGCM and 18–19 (16–17) days in the CGCM. The prediction skill is phase dependent in both the CGCM and AGCM.     

Low-latitude control of interhemispheric sea-surface temperature contrast in the tropical Atlantic over the past 21 kyears: the possible role of SE trade winds

To stimulate a discussion on the role of tropical atmospheric circulation versus thermohaline circulation changes for tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variations, we present a record of the SST contrast (SST) between the tropical northwest and southeast Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Late Holocene. The SST was calculated from two alkenone-derived SST records; one from the Caribbean Sea and the other from the Angola Basin. Changes in the cross-equatorial SST were then compared with an abundance record of Florisphaera profunda from the equatorial Atlantic, which is indicative of SE trade-wind induced variations in thermocline depth in the equatorial divergence zone. This comparison implies that the Last Glacial Maximum, the Younger Dryas, and the Mid to Late Holocene were periods of strong SE trade winds, which led to an intense upwelling-related cooling in the southeast Atlantic and concurrently enhanced advection of warm tropical South Atlantic waters into the western tropical Atlantic. Accordingly, a coupled ocean-atmospheric process has probably created a dipole-like SST distribution pattern in the tropical Atlantic during these three distinct climatic periods. In contrast, Heinrich Event 1, the Bølling-Allerød, and the Early Holocene were intervals of weakened SE trade winds, causing a warming in the southeast Atlantic. However, synchronous warming in both regions during Heinrich Event 1 can be partially attributed to a weakening of thermohaline overturning which caused a reduced northward heat transport from the low-latitude to the high-latitude North Atlantic.     

The effect of aerosol representation on cloud microphysical properties in Northeast Asia

This study performed a three-dimensional regional-scale simulation of aerosol and cloud fields using a meso-scale non-hydrostatic model with a bin-based cloud microphysics. The representation of aerosols in the model has been improved to account for more realistic multi-modal size distribution and multiple chemical compositions. Two case studies for shallow stratocumulus over Northeast Asia in March 2005 were conducted with different aerosol conditions to evaluate model performance. Improved condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are attributable to the newly constructed aerosol size distribution. The simulated results of cloud microphysical properties (cloud droplet effective radius, liquid water path, and optical thickness) with improved CN/CCN number are close to the retrievals from satellite-based observation. The effects of aerosol on the microphysical properties of shallow stratocumulus are investigated by model simulation, in terms of columnar aerosol number concentration. Enhanced aerosol number concentration results in increased liquid water path in humid case, but invariant liquid water path in dry case primarily due to precipitation occurrence. The changes of cloud microphysical properties are more predominant for small aerosol burden than for large aerosol burden with the retarded changes in cloud mass and size due to inactive condensation and collision-coalescence processes. Quantitative evaluation of sensitivity factor between aerosol and cloud microphysical properties indicates a strong aerosol-cloud interaction in Northeast Asian region.     

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in PMIP2 simulations of the last glacial maximum

The increasing trend of the Southern Annular Mode （SAM） in recent decades has influenced climate change in the Southem Hemisphere （SH）.How the SAM will respond increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the future remains uncertain.Understanding the variability of the SAM in the past under a colder climate such as during the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM） might provide some understanding of the response of the SAM under a future warmer climate.We analyzed the changes in the SAM during the LGM in comparison to pre-industrial （PI） simulations using five coupled ocean-atmosphere models （CCSM,FGOALS,IPSL,MIROC,HadCM） from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project （PMIP2）.In CCSM,MIROC,IPSL,and FGOALS,the variability of the simulated SAM appears to be reduced in the LGM compared to the PI simulations,with a decrease in the standard deviation of the SAM index.Overall,four out of the five models suggest a weaker SAM amplitude in the LGM consistent with a weaker SH polar vortex and westerly winds found in some proxy records and model analyses.The weakening of the SAM in the LGM was associated with an increase in the vertical propagation of Rossby waves in southern high latitudes.     

Recent climate variation in the Bering and Chukchi Seas and its linkages to large-scale circulation in the Pacific

The thermal state of the Bering Sea exhibits interdecadal variations, with distinct changes occurred in 1997–1998. After the unusual thermal condition of the Bering Sea in 1997–1998, we found that the recent climate variability (1999–2010) in the Bering Sea is closely related to Pacific basin-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Specifically, warming in the Bering and Chukchi Seas in this period involves sea ice reduction and stronger oceanic heat flux to the atmosphere in winter. The atmospheric response to the recent warming in the Bering and Chukchi Seas resembles the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) pattern. Further analysis reveals that the recent climate variability in the Bering and Chukchi Seas has strong covariability with large-scale climate modes in the Pacific, that is, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and the central Pacific El Niño. In this study, physical connections among the recent climate variations in the Bering and Chukchi Seas, the NPO pattern and the Pacific large-scale climate patterns are investigated via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis. An additional model experiment using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model, version 3, is conducted to support the robustness of the results.     

Future climate change scenarios over Korea using a multi-nested downscaling system: A pilot study

This study examines a scenario of future summer climate change for the Korean peninsula using a multi-nested regional climate system. The global-scale scenario from the ECHAM5, which has a 200 km grid, was downscaled to a 50 km grid over Asia using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). This allowed us to obtain large-scale forcing information for a one-way, double-nested Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model that consists of a 12 km grid over Korea and a 3 km grid near Seoul. As a pilot study prior to the multi-year simulation work the years 1995 and 2055 were selected for the present and future summers. This RSM-WRF multi-nested downscaling system was evaluated by examining a downscaled climatology in 1995 with the largescale forcing from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The changes in monsoonal flows over East Asia and the associated precipitation change scenario over Korea are highlighted. It is found that the RSM-WRF system is capable of reproducing large-scale features associated with the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its associated hydro-climate when it is nested by the NCEP/DOE reanalysis. The ECHAM5-based downscaled climate for the present (1995) summer is found to suffer from a weakening of the low-level jet and sub-tropical high when compared the reanalysis-based climate. Predicted changes in summer monsoon circulations between 1995 and 2055 include a strengthened subtropical high and an intensified mid-level trough. The resulting projected summer precipitation is doubled over much of South Korea, accompanied by a pronounced surface warming with a maximum of about 2 K. It is suggested that downscaling strategy of this study, with its cloud-resolving scale, makes it suitable for providing high-resolution meteorological data with which to derive hydrology or air pollution models.