使用SVM进行短期气候预测的应用试验

从气象角度介绍了利用SVM方法的预报原理,对西安短期气候预测做了实验,并分析预报结果,得出SVM方法在天气预报领域有一定的使用空间的结论。     

浅谈县级气象局学习气象事业发展战略的几点思考

结合学习中国气象事业发展战略研究成果,深入分析了县级气象局的基本状况、社会地位以及存在的困难和问题与中国气象事业发展战略要求的差距,阐述了当前适合县级气象局发展的思路和对策.     

福泉市推广种植金谷福梨气候条件分析

根据福泉市气候资源优势,结合土壤特点,对福泉市金谷福梨种植适宜区进行分析,并提出金谷福梨栽培过程中需要注意的问题。     

机房和场地安全问题探讨

影响地(市)、县级气象台(站)计算机系统机房和场地安全的主要原因可归纳为以下3个方面的问题。1环境导致的安全问题机房和场地物理环境方面对计算机系统造成的影响,主要体现在计算机设备机房温度、湿度、尘埃、腐蚀性气体、电磁场、静电、冲击振动等方面的要求上。机房环境条件的好坏,对充分发挥计算机系统的性能,延长机器使用寿命等方面都是非常重要的问题。在计算机加电工作时,环境温度的升高对正常工作造成影响,当温度过高时,可能会使某些元器件不能正常工作甚至完全失去作用,从而导致计算机设备的故障。高湿度时水蒸气在元器件或由介质…     

玉米的产量因素分析

本文通过对玉米产量和玉米各生育期长度、茎杆重、籽粒茎杆比等产量因素的分析,找到影响玉米最终产量形成的主要因素是乳熟至成熟期长度及茎杆重,即只有经过充分营养生长且有足够籽粒成熟时间的玉米才能获得高产。     

LCA简介及小城镇生活垃圾治理以及在环境评价中的应用

针对当前小城镇生活垃圾的特点,根据SETAC和ISO14000关于生命周期评价的技术框架,应用生命周期评价对小城镇生活垃圾生命周期各个阶段成本消耗和环境影响进行定量化分析和评估,同时结合复合生态学理论,提出小城镇的生活垃圾的治理途径,保证小城镇生态建设规划的实施。     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.     

测绘标准管理信息系统的设计与实现

测绘标准管理信息系统是标准信息化建设的主要内容，是测绘标准信息管理、应用及服务的重要基础支撑平台。本文结合开展测绘标准管理信息系统研究和建立的实际经验，根据标准信息建设与服务的技术现状和发展趋势，从设计要求、系统功能框架、标准信息管理、标准化工作管理、安全性和数据备份等方面介绍了测绘标准管理信息系统的设计思路，并就其实现方法和所采用的相应技术作了简单的叙述。     

山西省及邻区洞体形变异常指标的研究

利用山西省及部分邻区近几年的洞体形变观测资料,分析了在几次中强地震前观测数据的分量均值、倾斜矢量、潮汐因子变化等不同指标的异常特征,找出了区域地震前倾斜的共性异常特征和个体异常特征,并与数字观测资料进行了对比研究,指出了数字观测资料在今后地震预报中的应用前景。     

"地震数值模拟的数据库应用平台"项目成果介绍

利用计算机模拟复杂的系统和过程,是当今世界科技发展的新潮流,在地学领域,数值模拟已经渗透到地学研究的各个重大领域。本项目提出建立一个用于地震模拟和预报的数据库应用平台,以地壳动力学研究和强震机理研究为应用核心,将地震地质研究、地形变研究、地应力研究、地球内部结构研究等多种相关的学科手段的观测资料、实验结果和理论分析有机地结合起来,实现技术和数据资源的共享。利用这些信息构建比较合理的地球模型和尽可能多的约束条件,并在有限元分析系统上进行地壳形变和地震过程的数值模拟。