Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Groundwater quality and its suitability for drinking and agricultural use in Chithar River Basin, Tamil Nadu, India

Hydrochemistry of groundwater in Chithar Basin, Tamil Nadu, India was used to assess the quality of groundwater for determining its suitability for drinking and agricultural purposes. Physical and chemical parameters of groundwater such as electrical conductivity, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^–, HCO₃^–, CO₃^2–, SO₄^2–, NO^–₃, F^–, B^– and SiO₂ were determined. Concentrations of the chemical constituents in groundwater vary spatially and temporarily. Interpretation of analytical data shows that mixed Ca–Mg–Cl, Ca–Cl and Na–Cl are the dominant hydrochemical facies in the study area. Alkali earths (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺) and strong acids (Cl^–, SO₄^2–) are slightly dominating over alkalis (Na⁺, K⁺) and weak acids (HCO₃^–, CO₃^2–). The abundance of the major ions is as follows: Na⁺ Ca²⁺ Mg²⁺ > K⁺ = Cl^– > HCO₃^–> SO₄^2– > NO₃^– > CO₃^2– . Groundwater in the area is generally hard, fresh to brackish, high to very high saline and low alkaline in nature. High total hardness and TDS in a few places identify the unsuitability of groundwater for drinking and irrigation. Such areas require special care to provide adequate drainage and introduce alternative salt tolerance cropping. Fluoride and boron are within the permissible limits for human consumption and crops as per the international standards.     

The petroleum evaluation of a tectonically complex area: The western margin of the Southeast Basin (France)

The Southeast Basin of France is the thickest onshore French sedimentary basin which contains locally as much as 10 km of Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediment. Basin development occurred in several stages between late Carboniferous and late Cretaceous times. Partial tectonic inversion took place during two compressive events, the so-called ‘Pyrenean’ and ‘Alpine’ phases of late Cretaceous-early Tertiary and late Tertiary ages respectively. They are separated by an intervening stretching event of Oligocene age, which further south resulted in the opening of the western Mediterranean oceanic basin. As a result of this complex tectonic history, structural traps were difficult to image on the seismic data shot during the first phase of exploration prior to 1980. Oil and gas natural seeps, and shows in several wells, indicate that some petroleum systems are, or have been active, at least in some places.The present erosional western margin of the basin is more or less superimposed on the initial Triassic-Jurassic margin. Margin subsidence and Tertiary inversion are discussed using regional sections on which the polyphase history of the entire basin is well shown. These sections are located on three major segments where the Mesozoic margin is either partly preserved (Ardèche), or has been partly inverted in late Tertiary times (Vercors-Chartreuse), or has been completely inverted in early Tertiary times (Corbières-eastern Pyrenees). 1-D ‘Genex’ basin modelling on the Ardèche segment, and 2-D ‘Thrustpack’ structural-maturity modelling in the Vercors-Chartreuse segment are used to further assess the remaining petroleum plays.     

Dust-acoustic soliton in a plasma with multi-species ions and kappa-distributed electrons

In this work, we consider the formation of electrostatic, dust-acoustic solitary structure in a unmagnetized plasma with Lorentzian electrons (kappa-distributed) and more than one species of thermal ions (Maxwellian). The work is inspired by results of different space-based observations of electrostatic solitary waves (ESW) in the near-earth and magnetospheric plasmas and recent experimental realization of existence of superthermal electron component in various space plasmas. We have, in this work, shown that existence of compressive potential structure is possible only with more than one species of thermal ions. Besides, formation of compressive double layers is also possible which depends on the amount of deviation of the electron thermal velocities from a Maxwellian distribution. We show that both dust-temperature and super-thermal electrons lead to a decrease in the soliton amplitude.     

Tropospheric Ozone in a Global-Scale Three-Dimensional Lagrangian Model and Its Response to NOX Emission Controls

A three-dimensional Lagrangian tropospheric chemistry modelis used toinvestigate the impact of human activities on the tropospheric distributionofozone and hydroxyl radicals. The model describes the behaviour of 50 speciesincluding methane, carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide andnineorganic compounds emitted from human activities and a range of other sources.Thechemical mechanism involves about 100 chemical reactions of which 16 arephotochemical reactions whose diurnal dependence is treated in full. The modelutilises a five minute chemistry time step and a three hour advection timestepfor the 50,000 air parcels. Meteorological data for the winds, temperatures,clouds and so on are taken from the UK Meteorological Office global model for1994 onwards. The impacts of a 50% reduction in European NO_Xemissions onglobal ozone concentrations are assessed. Surface ozoneconcentrations decrease in summertime and rise in wintertime, but to differentextents.     

2009年意大利中部阿奎拉地震DInSAR同震位移的有限断层反演

根据环境卫星Envisat和COSMO—SkyMed模型（为同震位错研究而首次设计的X波段反演干涉图）的DInSAR干涉图,确定了2009年4月6日阿奎拉Mw=6．3级地震时激发的断层几何形状及运动特征。我们的主震最佳拟合解为一个约16km长、12km宽的正断层,存在小的右旋分量,向西南倾斜47°,最大滑动约90cm。虽然地震位错可能只有1km深,但是断层面的上倾投影与标绘的帕加尼卡-南德米特里奥断层的北段相符合,在现场观察到了该断层地表破裂的迹线。该断层在现有震源目录中的缺失表明,需要对具体的地表和地下进行进一步的地质和地球物理勘测,以便对局部规模的地震危险性做出更准确的评估。     

A Preliminary Analysis of Disturbance Tracksover the Mediterranean Basin

Summary  The Mediterranean basin experiences considerable cyclone activity mostly during fall, winter and spring and diminished activity during summer. In this study we present results of synoptic disturbance track analysis for two contrasting winter months and two, near average, summer months over the eastern Mediterranean. The surface and 500 hPa disturbance tracks were subjectively analyzed from two points of view. First, looking at tracks of conventionally defined cyclone centers (eddies) based on actual pressure and height distribution and second, looking at tracks of transient cyclonic disturbances (TRADs), defined as centers of negative deviations from the time mean. The second type of analysis demonstrated a considerable increase in the number of detectable tracks. Over the Mediterranean and vicinity the ratio between the number of surface TRAD tracks to cyclone tracks is, about 2, whereas at 500 hPa the ratio is much higher, about 5. However, the average life span of transient disturbances was only slightly longer than that of conventional cyclones (mainly at 500 hPa). At the surface and at 500 hPa about 50% of the cyclone tracks coincided to a certain extent with TRAD tracks. In summer, when conventional analysis over the eastern Mediterranean yields mostly quasi‐stationary low pressure centers associated with the Persian Gulf Trough, we detected clear signs of transient disturbances. Some interpretations of the differences between cyclones and TRADs in terms of weather in the eastern Mediterranean are also made. Received January 19, 1999Revised June 23, 1999     

A NEW APPROACH TO THE INVERSION OF SEISMIC DATA*

A new inversion method for seismic reflection data is based on impedance concepts and uses transformations to reduce the essentially non-linear problem to a linear eigenvalue formulation without approximation. A set of reflection data has been inverted using this method. The characteristic impedances of the layers so determined are compared with log data from a reference borehole.     

Basic equations for constructing geopotential models from the gravitational potential derivatives of the first and second orders in the terrestrial reference frame

This research represents a continuation of the investigation carried out in the paper of Petrovskaya and Vershkov (J Geod 84(3):165–178, 2010) where conventional spherical harmonic series are constructed for arbitrary order derivatives of the Earth gravitational potential in the terrestrial reference frame. The problem of converting the potential derivatives of the first and second orders into geopotential models is studied. Two kinds of basic equations for solving this problem are derived. The equations of the first kind represent new non-singular non-orthogonal series for the geopotential derivatives, which are constructed by means of transforming the intermediate expressions for these derivatives from the above-mentioned paper. In contrast to the spherical harmonic expansions, these alternative series directly depend on the geopotential coefficients ${\bar{{C}}_{n,m}}$ and ${\bar{{S}}_{n,m}}$ . Each term of the series for the first-order derivatives is represented by a sum of these coefficients, which are multiplied by linear combinations of at most two spherical harmonics. For the second-order derivatives, the geopotential coefficients are multiplied by linear combinations of at most three spherical harmonics. As compared to existing non-singular expressions for the geopotential derivatives, the new expressions have a more simple structure. They depend only on the conventional spherical harmonics and do not depend on the first- and second-order derivatives of the associated Legendre functions. The basic equations of the second kind are inferred from the linear equations, constructed in the cited paper, which express the coefficients of the spherical harmonic series for the first- and second-order derivatives in terms of the geopotential coefficients. These equations are converted into recurrent relations from which the coefficients ${\bar{{C}}_{n,m}}$ and ${\bar{{S}}_{n,m}}$ are determined on the basis of the spherical harmonic coefficients of each derivative. The latter coefficients can be estimated from the values of the geopotential derivatives by the quadrature formulas or the least-squares approach. The new expressions of two kinds can be applied for spherical harmonic synthesis and analysis. In particular, they might be incorporated in geopotential modeling on the basis of the orbit data from the CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE missions, and the gradiometry data from the GOCE mission.     

Impact of Pastoral Practices on Forest Cover and Regeneration in the Outer Fringes of Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary,Western Himalaya

The study reports the impact of migratory livestock in the buffer area of Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary. The cumulative impacts of livestock grazing, fuel wood extraction and other anthropogenic pressures on forest cover in and around camping sites have been analyzed using satellite data and field observations. Multi-date satellite data were used to map the forest cover around 16 seasonal livestock camps. An annual loss of about 7.25 ha of forest covers during 1976–1990, 13.57 ha during 1990–1999 and 11.46 ha during 1999–2005 are recorded. A loss of 108.53 ha of forestland has been estimated during 1976–1990, about 122.16 ha during 1990–1999 and 68.78 ha during 1999–2005. It is also observed that many of the isolated camping sites are now connected due to loss of vegetation. Phytosociological analysis indicates that the number of seedlings and saplings in three species of Quercus (Q. leucotrichophora, Q. floribunda and Q. semecarpifolia) as compared to mature tress is very less around cattle camping sites. The ratio of number of sapling with seedling and trees indicates that the status of sapling is nil to very poor, an indication of loss of saplings due to either trampling or grazing.