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91.
Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Xiangwen Liu Song Yang Qiaoping Li Arun Kumar Scott Weaver Shi Liu 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1487-1508
Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions. 相似文献
92.
The real-time forecasting of monsoon activity over India on extended range time scale (about 3 weeks) is analyzed for the monsoon season of 2012 during June to September (JJAS) by using the outputs from latest (CFSv2 [Climate Forecast System version 2]) and previous version (CFSv1 [Climate Forecast System version 1]) of NCEP coupled modeling system. The skill of monsoon rainfall forecast is found to be much better in CFSv2 than CFSv1. For the country as a whole the correlation coefficient (CC) between weekly observed and forecast rainfall departure was found to be statistically significant (99 % level) at least for 2 weeks (up to 18 days) and also having positive CC during week 3 (days 19–25) in CFSv2. The other skill scores like the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) also had better performance in CFSv2 compared to that of CFSv1. Over the four homogeneous regions of India the forecast skill is found to be better in CFSv2 with almost all four regions with CC significant at 95 % level up to 2 weeks, whereas the CFSv1 forecast had significant CC only over northwest India during week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. The improvement in CFSv2 was very prominent over central India and northwest India compared to other two regions. On the meteorological subdivision level (India is divided into 36 meteorological subdivisions) the percentage of correct category forecast was found to be much higher than the climatology normal forecast in CFSv2 as well as in CFSv1, with CFSv2 being 8–10 % higher in the category of correct to partially correct (one category out) forecast compared to that in CFSv1. Thus, it is concluded that the latest version of CFS coupled model has higher skill in predicting Indian monsoon rainfall on extended range time scale up to about 25 days. 相似文献
93.
Winter fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: mapping and modelling using remote sensing and GIS 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Arun K. Saraf Ajoy K. Bora Josodhir Das Vineeta Rawat Kanika Sharma Sanjay K. Jain 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):199-220
Almost every year in the winter months (December–February), the vast Indo-Gangetic Plain south of the Himalaya is affected
by dense fog. This fog is considered as radiational fog, and sometime it becomes smog (when it mixes with smoke). The typical
meteorological, topographic and increasing pollution conditions over the Indo-Gangetic Plain are perhaps the common contributing
factors for fog formation. In the present study, the North Indian fog has been successfully mapped and analysed using NOAA-AVHRR
satellite data. In the winter seasons of 2005–06, 2006–07 and 2007–08, the fog-affected area has been found to cover about
575,800 km2, 594,100 km2 and 478,000 km2, respectively. Less fog in 2007–08 may be the consequence of high fluctuations in the meteorological parameters like temperature,
relative humidity and wind speed as related to the prevailing synoptic regime for that season. The dissipation and migration
pattern of fog in the study area has also been interpreted on the basis of the analysis of both meteorological and satellite
data. Further analysis of the fog-affected area allowed identifying more fog-prone regions. Analysis of past fog-affected
days and corresponding meteorological conditions enabled us to identify favourable conditions for fog formation viz. air temperature
3–13°C, relative humidity >87%, wind speed <2 m/s and elevation <300 m. Based on the observations of past fog formation and
corresponding governing parameters, fog for few selected days could be predicted in hind-sight and later verified with NOAA
images. 相似文献
94.
B. S. K. REDDY K. R. KUMAR G. BALAKRISHNAIAH K. R. GOPAL R. R. REDDY V. SIVAKUMAR S. Md. ARAFATH A. P. LINGASWAMY S. PAVANKUMARI K. UMADEVI Y. N. AHAMMED 《大气科学进展》2013,30(1):235-246
Surface measurements of aerosol physical properties were made at Anantapur(14.62°N,77.65 °E,331 m a.s.l),a semiarid rural site in India,during August 2008-July 2009.Measurements included the segregated sizes of aerosolsas as well as total mass concentration and size distributions of aerosols measured at low relative humidity(RH<75%) using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance(QCM) in the 25-0.05 μm aerodynamic diameter range.The hourly average total surface aerosol mass concentration in a day varied from 15 to 70 μg m-3,with a mean value of 34.02±9.05μgm-3 for the entire study period.A clear diurnal pattern appeared in coarse,accumulation and nucleation-mode particle concentrations,with two local maxima occurring in early morning and late evening hours.The concentration of coarse-mode particles was high during the summer season,with a maximum concentration of 11.81±0.98μgm-3 in the month of April,whereas accumulationmode concentration was observed to be high in the winter period contributed >68% to the total aerosol mass concentration.Accumulation aerosol mass fraction,A f(=Ma/Mt) was highest during winter(mean value of Af~0.80) and lowest(Af~0.64) during the monsoon season.The regression analysis shows that both R eff and R m are dependent on coarse-mode aerosols.The relationship between the simultaneous measurements of daily mean aerosol optical depth at 500 nm(AOD500) and PM 2.5 mass concentration([PM2.5]) shows that surface-level aerosol mass concentration increases with the increase in columnar aerosol optical depth over the observation period. 相似文献
95.
Emily E. Riddle Amy H. Butler Jason C. Furtado Judah L. Cohen Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):1099-1116
Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS. 相似文献
96.
K.A. Jayaraj P. Sheeba Josia Jacob C. Revichandran P.K. Arun K.S. Praseeda P.A. Nisha K.A. Rasheed 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,77(4):743-754
Surficial sediment samples, collected from the continental margin of the southwest coast of India in July 2004, were examined for the grain size and soft-bottom macrobenthic fauna, to understand the sediment granulometry and its effect on the faunal distribution. Samples were collected using Smith-McIntyre Grab, from 20 to 200 m depth range, consisting of mid-shelf, outer shelf and slope. Fine-grained sediment located in the mid shelf and supported low faunal abundance. Polychaetes constituted the bulk of the fauna. Feeding guild changed with depth and sediment granulometry. Coexistence of deposit feeders and carnivores in outer shelf and deposit feeders and filter feeders in the slope region indicated the effective utilization of different food resources. In general, richness and diversity were high in the southern region. Depth wise, the diversity and abundance were relatively high in the 50–75 m depth range. Correlation and BIO-ENV analysis showed that combination of different factors such as sediment texture, sediment sorting and depth were found to influence the distribution of macrobenthos. Hence, spatial variations observed in benthic community were presumably linked to the variations in sediment granulometry and the energy level conditions prevailing in the area. 相似文献
97.
General relativistic spectra of accretion discs around rapidly rotating neutron stars: effect of light bending 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sudip Bhattacharyya Dipankar Bhattacharya Arun V. Thampan 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,325(3):989-994
We present computed spectra, as seen by a distant observer, from the accretion disc around a rapidly rotating neutron star. Our calculations are carried out in a fully general relativistic framework, with an exact treatment of rotation. We take into account the Doppler shift, gravitational redshift and light-bending effects in order to compute the observed spectrum. We find that light bending significantly modifies the high-energy part of the spectrum. Computed spectra for slowly rotating neutron stars are also presented. These results would be important for modelling the observed X-ray spectra of low-mass X-ray binaries containing fast-spinning neutron stars. 相似文献
98.
Journal of Seismology - 相似文献
99.
Har Amrit Singh Sandhu Hemendra Singh Gusain Manoj Kumar Arora Arun Bawa 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(11):1835-1840
Dokriani Glacier is regarded as one of the important glaciers of Bhagirathi River basin, which fed river Ganges. The length of the glacier is about 4.6 km, and snout elevation is about 4028 m m.s.l. The mass balance of this glacier was calculated using field-based measurements for few years during 1994 to 2000. However, due to remote and poor accessibility, the field-based measurements could not continue; thus, remote sensing-based methods become useful tool to estimate the long-term mass balance of the glacier. In this study, glacier mass balance has been determined using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method. Remote sensing data sets, e.g. Landsat TM, ETM?+?and OLI, have been used to estimate AAR for different years from 1994 to 2014. An attempt has also been made to develop a mathematical relationship between remote sensing-derived AAR and field-observed mass balance data of the glacier. Further, this relationship has been used to estimate mass balance of the glacier for different years using remote sensing-derived AAR. Estimated mass balance was validated from ground-observed mass balance for few years. The field-observed and remote sensing-derived mass balance data are compared and showed high correlation. It has been observed that AAR for the Dokriani Glacier varies from 0.64 to 0.71. Mass balance of the glacier was observed between ??15.54 cm and ??50.95 cm during the study period. The study highlights the application of remote sensing in mass balance study of the glaciers and impact of climate change in glaciers of Central Indian Himalaya. 相似文献
100.
Shailesh S. Deshpande Arun B. Inamdar Krishna Mohan Buddhiraju 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(3):337-344
We present a critical modification to improved dark object technique for correcting hyperspectral data (EO1-Hyperion). The modification is required in improved dark object technique as the original method does not take into account overlap of spectral response functions of two adjacent bands of hyperspectral sensor. We used weighted deconvolution for correcting the original overlap affected path radiance correction propagation factors. Further, we compared the reduction in correction factors—in different conditions—because of the overlap. We calculated the path radiance for April 22 Hyperion image and compared it with other methods such as 6SV. We found noticeable difference in corrected and uncorrected path radiance propagation factors with “clear” to “very clear” atmospheric models. For the other models (“moderate”, “hazy”, “very hazy”), the difference is negligible and can be ignored and improved dark object technique can be applied without any overlap correction. 相似文献