Movement of seasonal eddies and its relation with cyclonic heat potential and cyclogenesis points in the Bay of Bengal

Movement of seasonal eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and its relation with cyclonic heat potential (CHP) and cyclogenesis points have been investigated in this study using 6 years (2002–2007) of global ocean monthly analysis datasets based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package (SODA v2.0.4) of Carton et al. (2005) and Indian Meteorological Department cyclogenesis points. The region dominated by anticyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 70 × 10⁷ J/m² as well as good correlations (>0.9) with sea surface height (SSH) and 26°C isothermal depth (D ₂₆) can be a potential region of cyclogenesis. The region dominated by cyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 50 × 10⁷ J/m² and good correlation (>0.9) with both SSH and D ₂₆ can serve as a potential region of high-level depression. Potential cyclogenesis regions are the southern BOB (5°N–12°N) for the post-monsoon season and the head of BOB (north of 15°N) during southwest monsoon. Seven potential regions are identified for the eddy formation for different seasons, which are consistent with the cyclogenesis points. The CHP distributions alone are able to explain the cyclone tracks for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but not for the monsoon season.     

On the planar motion in the full two-body problem with inertial symmetry

Relative motion of binary asteroids, modeled as the full two-body planar problem, is studied, taking into account the shape and mass distribution of the bodies. Using the Lagrangian approach, the equations governing the motion are derived. The resulting system of four equations is nonlinear and coupled. These equations are solved numerically. In the particular case where the bodies have inertial symmetry, these equations can be reduced to a single equation, with small nonlinearity. The method of multiple scales is used to obtain a first-order solution for the reduced nonlinear equation. The solution is shown to be sufficient when compared with the numerical solution. Numerical results are provided for different example cases, including truncated-cone-shaped and peanut-shaped bodies.     

Benthic denitrification and organic matter mineralization in intertidal flats of an enclosed coastal inlet, Ago Bay, Japan

Denitrification (as N(2) flux) and organic matter mineralization (as O(2) uptake) were simultaneously measured in the same set of core sediments from a natural sandy and a constructed muddy tidal flat of Ago Bay, Japan. Denitrification rates at both tidal flats fluctuated between ca. 2-20 micromol N(2)m(-2)h(-1) without showing a clear seasonal pattern, and appeared to be substrate limited as NO(3)(-) enrichment (final concentration ca. 225 microM) caused prompt and similar enhancements of ca. 10-folds. Organic matter mineralization rates were markedly higher at constructed muddy flat compared to those of natural sandy flat, especially in summer, and exhibited pronounced temperature dependent (p<0.01) seasonality for both tidal flats. O(2) uptake rates were generally ca. 2-3 order greater than respective denitrification rates indicating dominance of mineralization processes over N(2) losses.     

Is the interdecadal variation of the summer rainfall over eastern China associated with SST?

The present study examined the major features of the interdecadal variation of the summer rainfall over eastern China (IVRC) and the possible association with sea surface temperature (SST). We noted that the first leading mode of IVRC (accounting for nearly half of the total variance and with maximum loading for the summer rainfall anomalies over South China) may be not forced by SST. On the other hand, the second and third leading modes [accounting for 17.1 and 13.6 % of the total variance and mainly associated with the summer rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and North China, respectively] in some extent are forced by SST anomalies. These observational results are confirmed by atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by observed SST. By eliminating the internal dynamical process driven rainfall though ensemble mean, the simulations further suggest an overall enhancement of the intensity of IVRC in the corresponding ensemble mean, especially in the YRV and North China regions, but not in South China. That implies the different role of SST in driving IVRC over different regions.     

Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.     

Planetary-Scale Wave Structures of the Earth’s Atmosphere Revealed from the COSMIC Observations

GPS radio occultation（GPS RO） method,an active satellite-to-satellite remote sensing technique,is capable of producing accurate,all-weather,round the clock,global refractive index,density,pressure,and temperature profiles of the troposphere and stratosphere.This study presents planetary-scale equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in temperature profiles retrieved using COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate） satellites during 2006-2009 and their interactions with background atmospheric conditions.It is found that the Kelvin waves are not only associated with wave periods of higher than 10 days（slow Kelvin waves） with higher zonal wave numbers（either 1 or 2）,but also possessing downward phase progression,giving evidence that the source regions of them are located at lower altitudes.A thorough verification of outgoing longwave radiation（OLR） reveals that deep convection activity has developed regularly over the Indonesian region,suggesting that the Kelvin waves are driven by the convective activity.The derived Kelvin waves show enhanced（diminished） tendencies during westward（eastward） phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation（QBO） in zonal winds,implying a mutual relation between both of them.The El Nino and Southern Oscillation（ENSO） below 18 km and the QBO features between 18 and 27km in temperature profiles are observed during May 2006-May 2010 with the help of an adaptive data analysis technique known as Hilbert Huang Transform（HHT）.Further,temperature anomalies computed using COSMIC retrieved temperatures are critically evaluated during different phases of ENSO,which has revealed interesting results and are discussed in light of available literature.     

An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30?C40?days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability.