Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.     

Crystal structure and growth fabric of length-fast chalcedony

Chalcedony from Brazilian agates, has been investigated by using transmission-electron microscopy, X-ray-diffraction, thermogravimetry and optical techniques. The quartz fibers of length-fast chalcedony are composed of submicroscopical polysynthetic, lamellar-twinned right- and lefthanded crystals, according to the Brazil law. This very narrow twinning causes 3 systems of diffuse diffraction streaks (corresponding to the three-fold symmetry) parallel to 〈10.1〉, very frequently possessing an intensity maximum at h±1/2, k, l±1/2. These extra reflections were detected both in electron- and X-ray-diffraction patterns. Wall-lining chalcedony is parallel fibrous consisting of smaller crystallites with a higher total water content (0.06±0.01 μm and 1.2±0.1 wt %) than spherulitic chalcedony in horizontal agate bands (ca. 0.1 μm and 0.7±0.1 wt%).     

A review of ENSO prediction studies

A hierarchy of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) prediction schemes has been developed which includes statistical schemes and physical models. The statistical models are, in general, based on advanced statistical techniques and can be classified into models which use either low-frequency variations in the atmosphere (sea level pressure or surface wind) or upper ocean heat content as predictors. The physical models consist of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from simplified coupled models of the shallow water-type to coupled general circulation models. All models, statistical and physical, perform considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO on lead times of 6 to 12 months. The most successful prediction schemes, the fully physical coupled ocean-atmosphere models, show significant prediction abilities at lead times exceeding one year period. We therefore conclude that ENSO is predictable at least one year in advance. However, all of this applies to gross indices of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Despite the demonstrated predictability, little is known about the predictability of specific features known to be associated with ENSO (e.g. Indian Monsoon rainfall, Southern African drought, or even off-equatorial sea surface temperature). Nor has the relative importance for prediction of different regional anomalies or different physical processes yet been established. A seasonal dependence in predictability is well established, but the processes responsible for it are not fully understood.     

Effects of the middle Holocene high sea-level stand and climate on Amazonian mangroves

The high sea-level stand during the mid-Holocene is a benchmark in mangrove dynamics along the north-east/south-east coast of Brazil and provides a reference point for landward and seaward mangrove migrations corresponding to changes in relative sea level (RSL). However, evidence of the impacts associated with RSL fall on the northern Brazilian coast is scarce. Multi-proxy data from the highest tidal flats of the Bragança Peninsula in northern Brazil revealed modern herbaceous areas were occupied by mangroves Rhizophora and Avicennia from ~6250 to ~5850 cal a bp , and only Avicennia between ~5850 and ~5000 cal a bp . The same tidal flats were vegetation-free between ~5000 and ~4300 cal a bp . A combination of a high sea-level stand (0.6 ± 0.1 m) at ~5000 cal a bp and a dry early–middle Holocene in the Amazon probably caused an increase in porewater salinity of tidal flats, which resulted in a mangrove succession from Rhizophora to Avicennia dominance. RSL fall accentuated this process, contributing to mangrove degradation between ~5000 and ~4300 cal a bp . RSL fall, and a wetter period over the past ~4300 cal a bp caused a mangrove migration from highest to lowest flats, followed by expansion of herbaceous vegetation on the highest flats.     

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous distribution of atmospheric water vapor and the non-linear sensitivity of the downward thermal radiation to changes in the atmospheric water vapor concentration partly cause the land-sea contrast and may also contribute to the polar amplification. The combination of these characteristics causes, in general, dry and cold regions to warm more than other regions.     

Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil

This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO₂ concentration [CO₂] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO₂], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t?ha^?1, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.     

Arguing for climate policy through the linguistic construction of narratives and voices: the case of the South-African green paper “National Climate Change Response”

The purpose of the present paper is to examine a selection of macro- and micro-linguistic features (at text and sentence/word level respectively) of the South-African Green Paper “National Climate Change Response” from 2010. Our overarching assumption is that the Green Paper needs to handle competing interests, beliefs and voices in a narrative structure favouring specific courses of action. How does the government portray the complex natural and societal phenomenon of climate change, and how does it take into account the many and often competing national and international views and interests which come into play? Our hypothesis is that the Green Paper constructs a narrative and that it relates to a number of voices other than that of the authors, through linguistic markers of polyphony, such as negation, sentence connectives, adverbs and reported speech. Thus we propose a narrative and polyphonic analysis of the Green Paper, at the level of the text as a whole (macro-level) but also with attention to linguistic constructions of polyphony or “multi-voicedness” (micro-level). We find that the narrative-polyphonic properties of the Green Paper contribute to a strategy for building consensus on climate change policy. The South African government assumes the role of main hero in its own climate change “story”, and there are subtle forms of interaction with different and typically non-identified voices, such as concessive constructions and presuppositions. These results support our overarching interpretation of the whole document as striving to impose a South African consensus on the issue of climate change.     

Delamerian Orogeny and potential foreland sedimentation: A review of age and stratigraphic constraints

A review of available geochronology and biostratigraphy leads to the conclusion that a considerable thickness of Cambrian sedimentary rocks exposed in the Arrowie and Stansbury Basins, South Australia, was probably deposited in a foreland setting during early phases of the Delamerian Orogeny. In contrast to most previous stratigraphic correlation schemes, we consider that the pre‐tectonic Kanmantoo Group was deposited synchronously with the locally thick upper Hawker Group in essentially en echelon basins during a final phase of extensional sedimentation within the Adelaide ‘Geosyncline’. The base of the locally overlying ‘redbed package’ (base of the Billy Creek and Minlaton Formations) is interpreted as the sedimentological signature of the onset of convergent deformation and associated uplift within the Delamerian Orogen at about 522 Ma. This early ('Kangarooian') phase of the Delamerian Orogeny is interpreted as the progressive development of a coherent sigmoidal fold‐thrust belt within the combined Fleurieu‐Nackara Arcs, with locally developed high‐temperature‐low‐pressure metamorphism and granitoid intrusions dating from about 516 Ma. The ‘redbed package’ is absent from the Fleurieu‐Nackara Arc region and displays isopach, palaeocurrent and facies trends consistent with derivation from this uplifted area or from the associated flexural bulge to the west. From seismic evidence we conclude that thick foreland basin deposits are present beneath Gulf St Vincent. Late phases of the Delamerian Orogeny led to local and relatively mild deformation of the early foreland deposits.     

Electron irradiation damage in quartz, SiO2

Crystallographically orientated samples of synthetic optical-grade colourless quartz with high chemical purity and low dislocation density together with synthetic gem-grade amethyst with high Fe-concentration and ca. 250 H/10⁶ Si (“dry”) or 600 H/10⁶ Si (“wet”) and with very high dislocation densities were irradiated using TEM. Samples of cuts perpendicular (<c>-cuts) and parallel (<X>-cuts) to the c-axis, that were as-grown or pretreated for 5 days at 820 K on air or under p(H₂O)=10⁸ Pa were prepared. Characterization methods used include AAS, FTIR, Raman-spectroscopy, X-ray-topography, REM, TEM in SAED and bright-field mode and polarized light microscopy. Radiolysis was carried out in TEM from 10 to 300 K with 100 kV and from 70–850 K (low-high-transition temperature of quartz) with 200 kV. Irradiation damage was investigated by decay of Kikuchi-lines or of Bragg reflections in SAED and in bright-field mode by development of strain contrast centres and of noncrystalline volume areas. Special preparates where the irradiation damage was of microscopic dimensions were investigated using Raman-spectroscopy. Radiolysis of quartz is able to proceed at 10 K with measurable velocity. The required electron dose for a standardized irradiation damage decreases with increasing temperature. At ca. 500 K it goes through a minimum and then increases steadily up to ca. 700 K. From there the increase is steep until ca. 820 K where it culminates sharply, showing strong fluctuations until 850 K. The <X>-cuts in the as-grown state show significantly higher irradiation damage sensitivity than <E1>-cuts. Dry or hydrothermal preheating increases the overall sensitivity of irradiation damage and levels out the orientation differences. The high Fe-concentrations in amethyst in comparison with very pure quartz have no detectable influence on the damage sensitivity. This is also true for different water concentrations independently from the ratio of silanole-group to molecular water. Sample thinning by ion etching with different gun currents produces differences in irradiation sensitivity. Thinning by crushing produces samples with sensitivities comparable with ion-etching at low gun current.