中国地震预报论坛2023年度学术交流大会在四川康定召开

中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会和四川省地震局于2023年8月15—19日在四川省康定市联合举办了中国地震预报论坛2023年度学术交流大会,来自全国地震行业内、外8所大学、4个中科院直属科研院所与23个地震行业直属科研院所及省市级分支机构共35个单位的100余名代表参加了此次会议。学术交流设置了12个专题;会前征集到论文96篇,会期交流报告78个,其中口头报告23个,张贴展板55个;23个口头报告中,大会特邀报告6个;从55个张贴报告中,评选出优秀报告6个,最佳设计创意报告1个。为了配合活断层野外识别的科普培训,本次大会将原计划以 “制约地震三要素的因素与地震三要素预报的瓶颈问题” 为主题的大会圆桌讨论改成了 “鲜水河断裂带高震级危险性分析” 的专题培训讲座,讲座之后再适时举行了 “如何强化高危险区的临震监测与临震跟踪预报能力” 的专题讨论。对2022年泸定6.8级地震的交流讨论提出了新的科学问题。大会不仅重视学术交流,还兼顾了科学传播的普及,利用当地的科普资源,因地制宜地组织了为期一天的鲜水河断裂带活动特征的野外识别科普培训。地震预报论坛学术交流大会全体与会代表参加了此次野外实训活动,活动中邀请了著名的鲜水河断裂带活动特征研究专家现场授课,增强了地震预报与地震地质领域的跨学科交流,强化了学术交流的效果。

     

Linear and planar structure in ordered multivariate data as applied to progressive demagnetization of palaeomagnetic remanence

Summary. Consider a sequence of, say, 10 to 20 vector observations in three-dimensional space. It is suspected that a few subsets of consecutive observations are made up of collinear points. The purpose of this paper is to construct a statistically based algorithm to find such linear segments and to assess their accuracy. A similar assessment is made for coplanar sets of points.
This algorithm is applied here to palaeomagnetic data and is claimed to be superior to previous methods of palaeomagnetic analysis in terms of completeness and balance of analysis, treatment of measurement errors and other sources of scatter, criteria for identification of linear and planar sets of points, and statistical rigour. Stability spectra, with statistically based confidence limits, are obtained as a by-product.     

A STUDY OF THE SEISMIC SIGNATURES OF SEDIMENTATION MODELS USING SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAMS*

In modern exploration for hydrocarbons there is a great emphasis on the location of stratigraphic traps and estimation of lithologic information like sand-shale ratios from seismic data. In order to investigate the possibilities of success in this endeavour we have studied the synthetic seismograms for wave form and spectral characteristic for four basic sedimentation models: (I) interbedded sand-shale model representing the sediments of generally fluviatile origin, (2) interbedded coal-shale model representing deltaic deposits, (3) sedimentary models representing transgression and regression of shore lines, and (4) a basal sand model. The results have shown that for the first two models a change in the sand-shale or coal-shale ratio results in a characteristically different seismogram. The nature of the seismogram, however, is also strongly dependent on how the sand-shale or coal shale layers are arranged to ultimately give the same number of total layers, thus implying the same coal-shale or sand-shale ratios. The transgression, regression, and basal sand models also produce characteristically different seismic signatures. The spectra of these seismograms show attendant characteristic changes. However, it seems that in the case of real data which are disturbed by noise and the effects of overlying layers these characteristic features may not always be distinguishable.     

Density Structure,Isostatic Balance and Tectonic Models of the Central Tien Shan

A new combined satellite-terrestrial model of the gravity field is used together with seismic data for construction of a density model of the lithosphere of the Central Tien Shan and for estimation of its isostatic balance. The Tien Shan is one of the most active intraplate orogens in the world, located about 1,500 km north of the convergence between Indian and Eurasian plate, and surrounded by stable Kazakh platform to the north and the Tarim block to the south. Although this area was extensively studied during recent decades, several principal problems, related to its structure and tectonics, remain unsolved up to now: (1) various geodynamic scenarios have been discussed so far to explain tectonic evolution, such as direct “crustal shortening,” intracontinental subduction and some others, but no definite evidence for any of them has been found. (2) Still, it is not clear why Tien Shan grows so far from the plate boundary at the Himalayan collision zone. Gravity modeling can provide valuable constraints to resolve these questions. The results of this study show that: (1) there exists a very strong deflection of the Tien Shan lithosphere from isostatic equilibrium. At the same time, the patterns of the isostatic anomalies are very different in the Western and Central Tien Shan. The latter one is characterized by much stronger variations. The best fit of the modeling results is found for the model according to which the Tarim plate partially underthrusts the Central Tien Shan; (2) negative density anomalies in the upper mantle under the central block possibly relate to magmatic underplating during the initial stage of the tectonic evolution. Therefore, the weak lithosphere could be the factor that initiates mountain building far away from the collision zone. Alternatively, this might be a gap after detachment of the eclogised lower crust and lithospheric lid, which is filled with the hot asthenospheric material.     

基于深度学习的GF-1卫星WFV影像赤潮探测方法

赤潮是我国主要的海洋生态灾害,有效监测赤潮的发生和空间分布对于赤潮的防治具有重要意义。传统的赤潮监测以低空间分辨率的水色卫星为主,但是其对于频发的小规模赤潮存在监控盲区。GF-1卫星WFV影像具有空间分辨率高、成像幅宽大和重访周期短等优点,在小规模赤潮监测中表现出较大的潜力。然而,GF-1卫星WFV影像的光谱分辨率较低,波段少,传统面向水色卫星的赤潮探测方法无法应用于GF-1卫星WFV数据。而且赤潮具有形态多变、尺度不一的特点,难以精确提取。基于此,本文提出了一种面向GF-1卫星WFV影像的尺度自适应赤潮探测网络（SARTNet）。该网络采用双层主干结构以融合赤潮水体的形状特征与细节特征,并引入注意力机制挖掘不同尺度赤潮特征之间的相关性,提高网络对复杂分布赤潮的探测能力。实验结果表明,SARTNet赤潮探测精度优于现有方法,F1分数达到0.89以上,对不同尺度的赤潮漏提和误提较少,且受环境因素的影响较小。     

松潘地区岩金统计成矿予测中泛克立格法的应用

川西北地区是国内重要的岩金普查靶区。本文对松潘地区的地质特征,泛克立格法原理,及在本区的应用情况作了介绍,对主要计算步骤,给出基本结果,对计算获得的有意义异常区,进行地质解释,并将此方法与趋势面分析进行对比。     

A STUDY ON A NEW MECHANICAL MODEL FOR FOUNDATIONS AND ITS ELASTIC SETTLEMENT RESPONSE

In the present paper, a new foundation model has been proposed by introducing a stretched rough elastic membrane in the Pasternak shear layer sandwiched between two spring layers which is an extension of Kerr model. Considering the equilibrium of different elements, the equations governing the elastic settlement response of the model are derived. Finite difference scheme has been employed to solve the governing equations. The parametric studies carried out show the effect of several parameters on the elastic settlement response of the model. The proposed model is well suited for idealizing the behavior of geosynthetic-reinforced granular fill—soft soil system besides other applications.     

Power spectrum of brightness temperature fluctuations derived from solar eclipse observations at 2.8 GHz

In this paper we report on the MEM power spectrum analysis of brightness temperature fluctuations observed at 2.8 GHz during the total solar eclipse of 16 February 1980. The observed periodicities range from 3.5 min to 64 min. These periodicities may arise due to spatial and/or temporal variations in the solar radio emission. The observed periodicities imply presence of scale sizes ranging from 70,000 to 600,000 km assuming that the brightness fluctuations arise because of spatial variation only. On the other hand, if these fluctuations are due to temporal variation, the observed periodicities correspond well to predicted modes of solar global oscillations.