Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Aspects of landslide activity in the Mercantour Massif and the French Riviera, southeastern France

Landslides pose serious hazards in the Mercantour Massif and the French Riviera in southeastern France. The context for landslide development is a particularly favourable one, both in terms of the geomorphic and structural setting of this Alpine region, and of the climatic, hydrologic and seismic factors that trigger such failures. High mountain relief and steep slopes constitute a very favourable setting for failures affecting massive basement rocks and a very heterogeneous sedimentary cover whose resistance has been weakened by weathering, tectonic stresses, and cambering due to gravity. Among trigger factors, the important appears to be the precipitation regime. Rainfalls are commonly concentrated into short high-intensity downpours or into bursts of sustained falls over periods of several days, leading to soil saturation and lubrication of potential failure planes. Snowmelt also contributes to these lubrication processes. Earthquakes affecting this region are also a potentially important landslide trigger. However, while a lot of work has been done on the relationship between extreme climatic events and landslide activity, much less is known of the trigger effects of earthquakes.Both the background factors that promote landslide development and the factors that trigger such failures are discussed within a time frame of landslide development. Progressive changes in soil strength due to weathering, rock cambering and shattering processes lead to long-term reduction in resistance. Superimposed on these progressive changes are episodic triggerings related to rainfall and snowmelt episodes or earthquakes. Landslides may occur as shallow, low-volume “one-time” events or may be part of a progressive long-term failure. The former generally affect unconsolidated or clay-rich sedimentary rocks, especially on the coastal hillslopes of the French Riviera. A notable exception of a major, voluminous “one-time” event was the submarine landslide of the Var Delta in 1979. This landslide, like numerous other smaller subaerial landslides onland, was largely a result of human activities. This landslide occurred following extensive modification of the Var Delta and, notably, reclamation of the steep, fine-grained delta front. Deforestation, quarrying, urbanisation and road network developments are various ways in which human activity has destabilized the coastal hillslopes, favouring the development of numerous shallow landslides following each episode of heavy rainfall.Progressive landslides on the upper hillslopes of the Mercantour Massif have developed over long time spans (order of 10¹ to 10⁵ yrs) and have involved more complex interactions between lithological controls, slope characteristics and trigger factors. The Collelongue and Bois de Malbosc landslides have evolved into now stable failures buttressed by resistant migmatitic diorites or amphibolites. The more voluminous and well monitored Clapière landslide is a relatively simple rotational landslide of the toe-failure type. This active landslide poses a serious to inhabitants and infrastructure in the Tinée Valley. The importance of continued field monitoring, modelling and mapping of landslides and their hazards is emphasised.     

Responses of interrill runoff and erosion rates to vegetation change in southern Arizona

Vegetation change, fi-om grassland to shrubland, has occurred over much of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts during the past century. The effect of this vegetation change on interrill runoff and erosion was examined by conducting rainfall-simulation experiments on large runoff plots on contemporary grassland and shrubland hillslopes. These experiments show that, compared to the grassland, the interrill portions of shrubland hillslopes (1) have higher runoff rates, (2) experience equilibrium runoff conditions much more frequently, (3) exhibit higher overland flow velocities, and (4) are subject to greater rates of erosion. The environmental change that has led to the vegetation change has been relatively minor, but its geomorphic impact has been substantial.     

Short‐term intertidal bar mobility on a ridge‐and‐runnel beach,Merlimont, northern France

Digital elevation models and topographic pro?les of a beach with intertidal bar and trough (ridge‐and‐runnel) morphology in Merlimont, northern France, were analysed in order to assess patterns of cross‐shore and longshore intertidal bar mobility. The beach exhibited a pronounced dual bar–trough system that showed cross‐shore stationarity. The bars and troughs were, however, characterized by signi?cant longshore advection of sand under the in?uence of suspension by waves and transport by strong tide‐ and wind‐driven longshore currents. Pro?le changes were due in part to the longshore migration of medium‐sized bedforms. The potential for cross‐shore bar migration appears to be mitigated by the large size of the two bars relative to incident wave energy, which is modulated by high vertical tidal excursion rates on this beach due to the large tidal range (mean spring tidal range = 8·3 m). Cross‐shore bar migration is also probably hindered by the well‐entrenched troughs which are maintained by channelled high‐energy intertidal ?ows generated by swash bores and by tidal discharge and drainage. The longshore migration of intertidal bars affecting Merlimont beach is embedded in a regional coastal sand transport pathway involving tidal and wind‐forced northward residual ?ows affecting the rectilinear northern French coast in the eastern English Channel. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Counting Beans: Agrobiodiversity,Indigeneity, and Agrarian Reform

In‐field conservation of locally domesticated crop varieties ameliorates agrobiodiversity losses, but the interaction among nationally regulated socioeconomic factors at the local scale tends to discourage this. Analyses of household surveys conducted in Ecuador demonstrate that state and nongovernmental institutions interact to discourage cultivation of locally domesticated varieties of beans (Phaseolus spp.). Land privatization, agricultural extension, and credit programs favor market production of introduced modern bean varieties, and locally domesticated varieties are noted for favorable nutrition, culinary, and agroecological qualities. Resolving disconnections between the market and social values for landrace beans may provide agrobiodiversity conservation opportunities.     

含硫化物镁铁质-超镁铁质侵入体中橄榄石Mg、Ni含量的制约:原理、模式及Voisey's Bay侵入体样品研究

镁铁质-超镁铁质岩浆结晶分离早期形成镁铁矿物,镁铁矿物中的Ni和Mg是相容元素。随着结晶分离作用的进行,Ni、Mg在硅酸盐岩浆及后形成的硅酸盐物质中的丰度下降。橄榄石中Ni含量及硅酸盐物质MgO/FeO比值都与母岩浆的相关值相关,据此可推断母岩浆的信息,它们之间可由实验测得的系数相联系。当岩浆饱和硫化物时,在结晶分离过程中硫化物珠滴会与镁铁硅酸盐物质一道析出,同时,与硫化物非饱和岩浆相比,过多的Ni会随之析出。这也反映在Ni、Mg含量比无硫化物分离时有更迅速的降低上。Ni、Mg含量变化值可以在VoiseysBay侵入体的模式曲线上反映出,加拿大Labrador的这一侵入体赋存了一个世界级的Ni-Cu-Co硫化物矿床。过去的作法是将侵入体中橄榄石的Ni、Mg含量与Simkin和Smith得出的各种火成岩中橄榄石的Ni、Mg含量相比较以确定Ni亏损,进而假定橄榄石来自硫化物饱和、有经济价值的岩浆。现在的研究显示这种简单的对比会导致错误。将样品数据与模式曲线对比并反映出侵入体矿物结晶堆积特征是重要的方法。使用这一方法,样品数据能很好地被模式曲线拟合。以在VoiseysBay的研究为例,当硫化物液相与硅酸盐矿物被去除后,硫化物非饱和的分离作用期就会显现出来,随后是硅酸盐结晶作用期。     

Temperature and humidity flux-variance relations determined by one-dimensional eddy correlation

It may be possible to estimate surface fluxes of scalar quantities from measurement of their variance and mean wind speed. The flux-variance relation for temperature and humidity was investigated over prairie and desert-shrub plant communities. Fluxes were measured by one-dimensional eddy correlation, humidity by fast-response wet-bulb psychrometers and Krypton open-path hygrometers, temperature by fine-wire thermocouples, and mean windspeed by a cup anemometer. The quality of the flux-variance relation proved to be good enough for application to flux measurement. Regressions of flux estimated by the variance technique versus measured flux usually had r ² values greater than 0.97 for sensible heat flux and greater than 0.88 for water vapor flux. More uniform surfaces tended to yield the same flux-variance relations except when fluxes were small. This exception supported the hypothesis that sparse sources of flux may increase variance downwind. Nonuniform surfaces yielded flux-variance relations that were less predictable, although reasonably accurate once determined. The flux-variance relation for humidity was quite variable over dry surfaces with senescent vegetation.     

The effect of sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic on the stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments

Different climate models simulate different behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the same global warming scenario. We propose a plausible explanation for this and argue that a proper simulation of the present-day climate in the subpolar North Atlantic is important. This is illustrated using results from idealized global warming experiments, in which both the radiative forcing scenario and the model employed are the same, with the only major difference being the initial subpolar North Atlantic climate. The initial conditions are made progressively colder, with more extensive sea-ice cover in the northern North Atlantic.The key result is that starting from conditions which are too cold in the North Atlantic and with sea-ice that is too extensive leads to an MOC that is more stable to the radiative forcing. Furthermore, under considerably underestimated sea surface temperatures in subpolar regions, the MOC can even intensify. A reduction of freshwater flux associated with the reduction of sea-ice melt is shown to be important for such unusual behavior of the MOC. Other mechanisms are also considered, but not deemed as important in explaining published inter-model differences.     

An analytical approach to ascertain saturation‐excess versus infiltration‐excess overland flow in urban and reference landscapes

Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas.     

Phases greater than 90° in MT data: Analysis using dimensionality tools

An example of magnetotelluric data is discussed which has distinctive phase values out of quadrant, and for which the Z_xx element of the measured tensor is greater than the Z_xy element in both real and quadrature parts. Mohr circle plots and principal value decompositions of the real and quadrature parts of the tensor clarify its understanding. An analysis of rotational invariants of the data suggests a case of galvanic distortion of a 2D structure. Results from phase tensor analysis are included, and the example is seen to be a dramatic instance of phase tensor analysis reducing an apparently 3D example to 2D characteristics.The Mohr circles of this example do not capture the axes origin, although there are phases out of quadrant. Extra intrigue is thus added to the question, noted in Lilley, F.E.M., 1998. Magnetotelluric tensor decomposition: part I, theory for a basic procedure. Geophysics 63, 1885–1897 and arising independently in Caldwell, T.G., Bibby, H. M., Brown, C., 2004. The magnetotelluric phase tensor. Geophys. J. Int. 158, 457–469 and Bibby, H.M., Caldwell, T.G., Brown, C., 2005. Determinable and non-determinable parameters of galvanic distortion in magnetotellurics. Geophys. J. Int. 163, 915–930, whether the determinant values taken separately of the real and quadrature parts of a magnetotelluric tensor should both never be negative.For data whose Mohr circles do not capture the axes origin, simple conditions are derived regarding phase. These conditions govern whether or not it is formally possible for observed phases of Z_xy to exceed 90°, for any rotation of the observing axes.