Calibration/Data Assimilation Approach for Integrating GRACE Data into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter: First Results

We introduce a new ensemble-based Kalman filter approach to assimilate GRACE satellite gravity data into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. The approach (1) enables the use of the spatial resolution provided by GRACE by including the satellite observations as a gridded data product, (2) accounts for the complex spatial GRACE error correlation pattern by rigorous error propagation from the monthly GRACE solutions, and (3) allows us to integrate model parameter calibration and data assimilation within a unified framework. We investigate the formal contribution of GRACE observations to the Kalman filter update by analysis of the Kalman gain matrix. We then present first model runs, calibrated via data assimilation, for two different experiments: the first one assimilates GRACE basin averages of total water storage and the second one introduces gridded GRACE data at \(5^\circ\) resolution into the assimilation. We finally validate the assimilated model by running it in free mode (i.e., without adding any further GRACE information) for a period of 3 years following the assimilation phase and comparing the results to the GRACE observations available for this period.     

Setting priorities for land management to mitigate climate change

Background

No consensus has been reached how to measure the effectiveness of climate change mitigation in the land-use sector and how to prioritize land use accordingly. We used the long-term cumulative and average sectorial C stocks in biomass, soil and products, C stock changes, the substitution of fossil energy and of energy-intensive products, and net present value (NPV) as evaluation criteria for the effectiveness of a hectare of productive land to mitigate climate change and produce economic returns. We evaluated land management options using real-life data of Thuringia, a region representative for central-western European conditions, and input from life cycle assessment, with a carbon-tracking model. We focused on solid biomass use for energy production.

Results

In forestry, the traditional timber production was most economically viable and most climate-friendly due to an assumed recycling rate of 80% of wood products for bioenergy. Intensification towards "pure bioenergy production" would reduce the average sectorial C stocks and the C substitution and would turn NPV negative. In the forest conservation (non-use) option, the sectorial C stocks increased by 52% against timber production, which was not compensated by foregone wood products and C substitution. Among the cropland options wheat for food with straw use for energy, whole cereals for energy, and short rotation coppice for bioenergy the latter was most climate-friendly. However, specific subsidies or incentives for perennials would be needed to favour this option.

Conclusions

When using the harvested products as materials prior to energy use there is no climate argument to support intensification by switching from sawn-wood timber production towards energy-wood in forestry systems. A legal framework would be needed to ensure that harvested products are first used for raw materials prior to energy use. Only an effective recycling of biomaterials frees land for long-term sustained C sequestration by conservation. Reuse cascades avoid additional emissions from shifting production or intensification.     

Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models.     

Geochemistry of mylonitic gneisses from the Cycladic Basement Unit (Paros and Serifos,Aegean Sea): implications for protoliths of the high-grade gneisses

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The nature of the protolith(s) of high-grade gneisses from the Aegean Cycladic Basement Unit of the islands of Paros and Serifos is investigated using...     

Quantification and characterization of the dynamics of spring and stream water systems in the Berchtesgaden Alps with a long-term stable isotope dataset

The understanding of alpine groundwater dynamics and the interactions with surface stream water is crucial for water resources research and management in mountain regions. In order to characterize local spring and stream water systems, samples at 8 springs, 5 stream gauges and bulk samples of precipitation at 4 sites were regularly collected between January 2012 and January 2016 in the Berchtesgaden Alps for stable water isotope analysis. The sampled hydro-systems are characterized by very different dynamics of the stable isotope signatures. To quantify those differences, we analyzed the stable isotope time series and calculated mean transit times (MTT) and young water fractions (YWF) of the sampled systems. Based on the data analysis, two groups of spring systems could be identified: one group with relatively short MTT (and high YWF) and another group with long MTT (and low YWF). The MTT and the YWF of the sampled streams were intermediate, respectively. The reaction of the sampled spring and stream systems to precipitation input was studied by lag time analysis. The average lag times revealed the influence of snow and ice melt for the hydrology in the study region. It was not possible to determine the recharge elevation of the spring and stream systems due to a lack of altitude effect in the precipitation data. For two catchments, the influence of the spring water stable isotopic composition on the streamflow was shown, highlighting the importance of the spring water for the river network in the study area.     

Redshift distribution of the submillimeter extragalactic background light

The submillimeter (submm) extragalactic background light (EBL) traces the integrated star formation history throughout the cosmic time. Deep blank-field 850 μm and 1.4 GHz surveys and optical follow-up have been only able to determine the redshift of ∼20% of the submm EBL. The majority (80%) of the submm EBL is still below the confusion and sensitivity limits of current submm and radio instruments. We break through these limits with stacking analyses on our deep 850 μm image in the GOODS-N and find that the submm EBL mostly comes from galaxies at redshifts around 1.0. This redshift is much lower than the redshift of z=2–3 previously implied from radio identified submm sources. This result significantly decreases the number of high redshift galaxies that may be seen by ALMA.     

Syn‐rift sequence development in a fault‐controlled embayment (Early Permian Irwin River Coal Measures,Northern Perth Basin,Western Australia)

Stratigraphic patterns and sequence development in tectonically active extensional basins remain poorly documented in comparison with passive‐margin settings. Rift basin fills are generally characterized by coarsening‐upward trends in response to the rapid creation of accommodation by extensional faulting, and the progressive filling of graben during more quiescent periods. The Early Permian Irwin River Coal Measures in the Northern Perth Basin (Western Australia) record a complex stratigraphic arrangement of conglomerate, sandstone, mudstone and coal, and have been attributed to delta plain depositional environments that developed in a cool–temperate climatic setting during syn‐rift activity. Sedimentary analysis of outcrop and core data from the fault‐bounded Irwin Terrace is used to distinguish nine facies associations reflecting deposition in braided rivers, fixed‐anastomosed channel belts, tide‐influenced coastal environments and storm‐affected distal bays. The broader depositional system is interpreted as a morphologically asymmetrical tide‐dominated embayment with a fluvial and wave influence. The stratigraphic architecture of the Irwin River Coal Measures was strongly influenced by the evolving rift basin margin. Fault reactivation of the major basin‐bounding Darling Fault in the early syn‐rift phase caused footwall uplift and the inception of transverse palaeo‐valleys occupied by braided fluvial systems. Fault block subsidence during the subsequent balanced, backstepping and drowning phases resulted in a dominantly retrogradational stacking pattern indicating progressive flooding of marginal‐marine areas and culminating in deposition of distal marine elements. In the active rift basin, it is proposed that preservation of a shallow‐marine syn‐rift sequence was promoted by the geomorphological confinement of the embayed system increasing tidal current acceleration and hampering transgressive ravinement. The proposed sequence model demonstrates that transgressive successions can develop in the early syn‐rift phase in response to footwall uplift and tectonic subsidence. The syn‐rift sequence recording the filling of an embayment on a rift basin margin may be applied in similar tectonic and/or depositional contexts worldwide.     

Physical explanation for the displacement-length relationship of faults using a post-yield fracture mechanics model

A plane strain model for a fault is presented that takes into account the inelastic deformation involved in fault growth. The model requires that the stresses at the tip of the fault never exceed the shear strength of the surrounding rock. This is achieved by taking into account a zone, around the perimeter of the fault surface, where the fault is not well developed, and in which sliding involves frictional work in excess of that required for sliding on the fully developed fault. The displacement profiles predicted by the fault model taper out gradually towards the tip of the fault and compare well with observed displacement profiles on faults. Using this model it is found that both (1) the shape of the displacement profile, and (2) the ratio of maximum displacement to fault length are a function of the shear strength of the rock in which the fault forms. For the case of a fault loaded by a constant remote stress, the displacement is linearly related to the length of the fault and the constant of proportionality depends on the shear strength of the surrounding rock normalized by its shear modulus. Using data from faults in different tectonic regions and rock types, the in situ strength of intact rock surrounding a fault is calculated to be on the order of 100 MPa (or a few kilobars). These estimates exceed, by perhaps a factor of 10, the strength of a well developed fault and thus provide an upper bound for the shear strength of the crust. It is also shown that the work required to propagate a fault scales with fault length. This result can explain the observation that the fracture energy calculated for earthquake ruptures and natural faults are several orders of magnitude greater than that for fractures in laboratory experiments.     

Dispersion Modelling of the Kilauea Plume

Emissions from the Kilauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risksto the Hawaiian community. This paper describes progress toward simulating theconcentration and dispersion of plumes of volcanic aerosol after they emanate from thePu'u O'o vent of the Kilauea volcano.In order to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersionof volcanic aerosol, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HY-SPLIT) model was used. Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were employed as input for theHY-SPLIT model. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft, and ground-based observations collected during a field experiment was used to validate the model simulation of aerosol distribution.The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation, and concentration gradients as deduced from satellite images of aerosol optical depth.Comparison of the modelled and observed values suggests that the model was able to produce reasonable plume concentrations and spatial gradients downwind of the source. Model concentrations were generally less than those observed on the leeward side of the Island of Hawaii. This deficiency may be explained by a lack of (i) background concentrations, (ii) local sources of pollution and/or (iii) sea-breeze circulation in the prognostic input wind field. These results represent early progress toward the goal of future operational application of the HY-SPLIT model to predict volcanic aerosol concentrations in Hawaii. This may help mitigate their negative impacts of plumes respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation.     

Cross-section through the frontal Japan Trench subduction zone: Geochemical evidence for fluid flow and fluid–rock interaction from DSDP and ODP pore waters and sediments

Abstract Fluids and sediments from Deep Sea Drilling Project/Ocean Drilling Program Legs (56, 57, 87 and 186) along a transect extending from the subducting plate, across the midslope and upper slope of the Japan Trench forearc were analyzed for B and B isotopes in order to assess their composition and fluid–sediment interaction. At the reference Site 436 on the subducting plate, changes in B contents and B isotopes are controlled by the lithology and diagenesis only. The midslope Sites 440 and 584 showed stronger variations in the B geochemistry, which can be related to diagenesis and tectonic dewatering along faults. The strongest changes in the B geochemistry were observed on the upper slope Sites 1150 and 1151, where profound down‐hole freshening (chlorinities as low as ～310 mmol) coincides with a B enrichment (up to 9.3 × seawater concentration). The B isotope pore fluid profile of Site 1150 displayed a bimodal variation with depth, first increasing to values more positive than seawater, then shifting to lower signatures typical for deep‐seated fluids, whereas Site 1151 showed a constant B decrease with depth. Sites 1150 and 1151 sediments showed B increases with depth to values as high as ～164 p.p.m. and isotopic compositions ranging from ～+4 to ?9‰. A linear decrease in B_solid/B_fluid ratio, suggests that B geochemistry of the upper slope sites is controlled by fluid–rock interaction and deep‐seated fluid flow, whereas constant B_solid/B_fluid ratios were observed at the reference site on the incoming plate. This fluid overprint is probably caused by normal faults in the sediment cover which might be interconnected to deep thrusts in the underlying Cretaceous accreted wedge. This suggests that the erosive Japan Trench margin is characterized by back‐flux of deep‐seated, B‐enriched fluids into the ocean, which is facilitated by extensional normal faulting as a result of tectonic erosion and subsidence.