Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Characteristics of Type-II Radio Bursts Associated with Flares and CMEs

We present a statistical study of the characteristics of type-II radio bursts observed in the metric (m) and deca-hectometer (DH) wavelength range during 1997–2008. The collected events are divided into two groups: Group I contains the events of m-type-II bursts with starting frequency ≥ 100 MHz, and group II contains the events with starting frequency of m-type-II radio bursts < 100 MHz. We have analyzed both samples considering three different aspects: i) statistical properties of type-II bursts, ii) statistical properties of flares and CMEs associated with type-II bursts, and iii) time delays between type-II bursts, flares, and CMEs. We find significant differences in the properties of m-type-II bursts in duration, bandwidth, drift rate, shock speed and delay between m- and DH-type-II bursts. From the timing analysis we found that the majority of m-type-II bursts in both groups occur during the flare impulsive phase. On the other hand, the DH-type-II bursts in both groups occur during the decaying phase of the associated flares. Almost all m-DH-type-II bursts are found to be associated with CMEs. Our results indicate that there are two kinds of shock in which group I (high frequency) m-type-II bursts seem to be ignited by flares whereas group II (low frequency) m-type-II bursts are CME-driven.     

Stone Age settlement and Holocene shore displacement in the Narva‐Luga Klint Bay area,eastern Gulf of Finland

Based on geological and archaeological proxies from NW Russia and NE Estonia and on GIS‐based modelling, shore displacement during the Stone Age in the Narva‐Luga Klint Bay area in the eastern Gulf of Finland was reconstructed. The reconstructed shore displacement curve displays three regressive phases in the Baltic Sea history, interrupted by the rapid Ancylus Lake and Litorina Sea transgressions c. 10.9–10.2 cal. ka BP and c. 8.5–7.3 cal. ka BP, respectively. During the Ancylus transgression the lake level rose 9 m at an average rate of about 13 mm per year, while during the Litorina transgression the sea level rose 8 m at an average rate of about 7 mm per year. The results show that the highest shoreline of Ancylus Lake at an altitude of 8–17 m a.s.l. was formed c. 10.2 cal. ka BP and that of the Litorina Sea at an altitude of 6–14 m a.s.l., c. 7.3 cal. ka BP. The oldest traces of human activity dated to 8.5–7.9 cal. ka BP are associated with the palaeo‐Narva River in the period of low water level in the Baltic basin at the beginning of the Litorina Sea transgression. The coastal settlement associated with the Litorina Sea lagoon, presently represented by 33 Stone Age sites, developed in the area c. 7.1 cal. ka BP and existed there for more than 2000 years. Transformation from the coastal settlement back to the river settlement indicates a change from a fishing‐and‐hunting economy to farming and animal husbandry c. 4.4 cal. ka BP, coinciding with the time of the overgrowing of the lagoon in the Narva‐Luga Klint Bay area.     

Mitigation of lunar dust adhesion by surface modification

Dust has been recognized as one of the greatest hazards in continued lunar exploration due to its tenacious adhesion to everything with which it comes into contact. Unfortunately, there is little known about the mechanisms of adhesion on widely varying surface types: van der Waals and electrostatic forces are the dominant forces under consideration here. Surface energy, roughness, mechanical properties and electronic properties are all known to contribute to the adhesion characteristics. An optimal solution to mitigate dust adhesion would be to identify the dominant components of the adhesive force and to reduce that force by surface modification. In this study, an ion beam process was used to modify (treat) the surfaces of three dramatically different materials spanning the range of conductor (black Kapton), semiconductor (silicon), and insulator (quartz). Adhesive forces between less than JSC-1 lunar simulants and these virgin/treated surfaces were measured in vacuum using a centrifugal force detachment method. We found that JSC-1 particles adhered less to treated silicon and quartz surfaces, correlated with a reduction in van der Waals force due to a reduced surface energy. The large reduction in adhesion for treated black Kapton is mainly due to the large decrease in the electrostatic (image) force that results from reduced contact charging. Materials in space and on the lunar surface will be directly exposed to high-energy ultraviolet radiation prior to being covered by dust, so the UV irradiation effects on surface adhesion were also examined. Both virgin and treated quartz surfaces are most affected by the UV-irradiation, showing dramatically increased adhesion.     

A Plan to Push Limits? Investigating the ecologically sustainable development dimensions of Melbourne's Central Region sustainable water strategy

Drawing upon theory from the field of urban political ecology, we analyse a major strategic water plan for Melbourne, Australia—the Sustainable water strategy for the Central Region, published in 2006. We assess the extent to which the strategy identified and addressed ecological sustainability in terms of: cultural frames; ecological context; social equity; and engagement processes. We identify that the strategy's framing of water was largely separate from its social and ecological context. This framing resulted in the importance of issues such as environmental flows, social equity and cultural values being diminished, thus avoiding the inevitable confrontation with environmental limits needed to ensure long-term ecological sustainability. Our analysis shows that the discursive dominance of economics limited the response to persuasive scientific arguments for greater ecological consideration in the strategy. Our findings suggest that broadening engagement with the diverse ways in which water is valued is likely to contribute to more equitable and ecologically sustainable water futures.     

A comment on the effect of discretization on dispersion

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Changes in vertical distribution and aggregative behaviour in response to population density for larval sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) and sea stars (Asterias rubens)

We examined the effects of the presence of larval conspecifics on larval vertical distribution of four‐arm and six‐arm plutei of Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis and bipinnaria of Asterias rubens, in laboratory experiments, by manipulating population density. Larvae were introduced to experimental columns (10 × 10 × 30 cm) at one of two or three population densities (S. droebachiensis: 0.1 and 10 larvae·ml^?1; A. rubens: 0.1, 1 and 10 larvae·ml^?1). Subsequent changes in vertical distribution were determined from images of the larvae in the columns illuminated by a 532‐nm laser and captured by a high‐resolution camera. Larvae of both species were found higher in the water column in the high than in the low and intermediate population densities. The relationship between vertical swimming velocity and nearest neighbour distance (NND) was measured for four‐arm plutei of S. droebachiensis, and used to determine a range in distances among individuals that may affect potential interactions. The variation in swimming velocity decreased with increasing proximity below a threshold distance among individuals of 10 mm, which was greater than the estimated distance in the high population density. We suggest that the increased larval aggregation near the water surface under high population density is the result of a behavioural response to conspecifics.     

Milan: The city of constant renewal

Traditional models of urban development are no longer adequate to describe current metropolitan transformations. These are now at the centre of a debate concerning management and administration. In Italy, delays in resolving problems of urban and metropolitan government, despite the legal framework provided by Law 142/90, have weighed heavily on the larger urban areas of the country: Rome, Naples, Milan, which have not been able to tackle the issue of metropolitan government. Recent legislation, while not providing a pre-defined institutional solution, allows separate administrative districts to collectively establish metropolitan institutions of `variable geometry'. The Milan urban area is not one city, but a system of mutually-dependent cities, linked to each other and the rest of the world by a transport network still requiring much investment. The vitality of its economic structure (especially its small firms) is held back by seriously inadequate infrastructure and low external economic efficiency. The provincial capital may boast `historic centrality' but the most interesting potential for development is to be found on the periphery and in the administrative districts immediately surrounding it, in the recovery of derelict industrial areas and dormitory towns established in the 1950s and 1960s, especially to the north. Recovery of derelict areas, green areas, and better transport links within the urban area and with the outside world are the key elements in the reorganization of `Greater Milan'. In this situation of rapid transformation the most appropriate political strategies involve negotiated planning. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Atmospheric electricity measurements over the Indian Ocean

Summary Results of measurements of the atmospheric electrical conductivity and potential gradient made during the sixth Scientific Cruise of the Indian Oceanographic Ship INS Kistna in the Bay of Bengal during February–March 1963 are presented. Observations were made when the skies were generally clear and the sea calm, in the geographical area 8°N to 17°N and 80°E to 95°E, on the outward journey of INS Kistna from Madras (80°E, 13°N) to Port Blair (93°E, 12°N) and on the return journey to Madras.Over the ocean where there are no local sources of pollution, the measured values of conductivity and potential gradient are in agreement with theoretical values, assuming that an ion equilibrium exists, that ions are destroyed primarily by collision with small ions of opposite sign and that small ions are produced only by cosmic radiation. The values of electrical conductivity obtained are generally of the same order as those to be expected from theoretical considerations and in general agreement with those obtained during the Carnegie cruises in the Indian Ocean in 1920. There are, however, significant variations near the coast where the electric structure above the ocean is affected by continental sources of pollution. Conductivity values near the land are about half that in the unpolluted air over the ocean but prevailing winds prevent the extension of pollution beyond 100–200 km from the coast in this season.

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Zusammenfassung Es wird über Messungen der luftelektrischen Leitfähigkeit und des Potentialgefälles berichtet, welche während der Sechsten Wissenschaftlichen Kreuzfahrt des indischen Ozeanographischen Forschungsschiffes Ins Kistna in der Bengalischen Bucht im Februar und März 1963 ausgeführt wurden. Die Beobachtungen sind im allgemeinen bei klarem Himmel und ruhiger See gemacht worden, und zwar in dem geographischen Bereich zwischen 8 und 17°N und 80 und 95°E während der Ausfahrt der INS Kistna von Madras (80°E, 13°N) nach Port Blair (93°E, 12°N) und auf der Rückreise nach Madras. In den Bereichen des Ozeans, in denen keine örtlichen Pollutionsquellen bestehen, stimmen die gemessenen Werte der Leitfähigkeit und des Potentialgefälles mit den theoretischen Werten überein, die man erhält, wenn man annimmt, dass ein Ionengleichgewicht besteht, dass die schnellen Ionen vorwiegend durch Zusammenstoss mit schnellen Ionen des entgegengesetzten Vorzeichens vernichtet werden, und dass die schnellen Ionen nur durch die kosmische Höhenstrahlung erzeugt werden. Die Werte der Leitfähigkeit stimmen mit denen überein, die man aus theoretischen Überlegungen gewinnt, und auch mit denen, die während der Kreuzfahrten des Forschungsschiffes Carnegie im Indischen Ozean im Jahre 1920 gemessen Küste sind jedoch bedeutsame Abweichungen festzustellen, wo die elektrischen Verhältenisse über dem Ozean durch Pollutionsquellen auf dem Lande beeinflusst werden. Die Leitfähigkeitswerte nahe dem Land sind nur ungefähr halb so gross wie die in der pollutionsfreien Luft des offenen Ozeans-jedoch haben die während der Mess-Jahreszeit vorherrschenden Winde eine Ausbreitung der Pollutionszone auf einen Bereich von 100 bis 200 km von der Küste beschränkt.