Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...     

Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.     

Expert engagement in participatory processes: translating stakeholder discourses into policy options

This paper demonstrates an innovative role for experts in supporting participatory policy processes with an application to landslide risk management in the Italian town of Nocera Inferiore. Experts co-produce risk mitigation options based on their specialized knowledge taking account of local knowledge and values by directly coupling stakeholder discourses with option design. Drawing on the theory of plural rationality and based on a literature review, interviews and a public questionnaire, stakeholder discourses are elicited on the landslide risk problem and its solution. Armed with the discourses and in close interaction with stakeholders, experts provide a range of technical mitigation options, each within a given budget constraint. These options are subsequently deliberated in the participatory process with the intent of reaching compromise recommendations for landslide risk mitigation. As we show in an accompanying paper, “Compromise not consensus. Designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation” (this issue), the provision of multiple co-produced policy options enhances stakeholder deliberation by respecting legitimate differences in values and worldviews.     

Monitoring desertification by remote sensing using the Tasselled Cap transform for long-term change detection

Sensitive areas like oases are threatened by climatic variations and human activities that can catalyze desertification processes. Remote sensing the Earth surface from satellites is a good tool to monitor such types of change through several techniques. In this paper a remote sensing method that has been widely used for vegetated areas is adapted to study dry regions. The method consists of a combination of the Change Vector Analysis and the Tasselled Cap (TC) transform. To adapt it to dryland conditions a new set of parameters for the TC transform is hereby calculated for the Landsat 8 OLI system. The new TC parameters are tested in the analysis of the surface change in Azraq Oasis, Jordan, over a time span of 30 years (1984–2013) for Landsat satellites images. Azraq is considered a good testing site since in the early 1990s it has been subject to a complete drying up of the superficial springs, mainly due to over-exploitation of the groundwater basin. Results show that the chosen technique is able to detect the expected change on the surface, consistent with photo-interpretation and historical information available.     

Very hot,very shallow hydrothermal dolomitization: An example from the Maritime Alps (north‐west Italy–south‐east France)

In the Maritime Alps (north‐west Italy – south‐east France), the Middle Triassic–lowermost Cretaceous platform carbonates of the Provençal Domain locally show an intense dolomitization. Dolomitized bodies, irregularly shaped and variable in size from some metres to hundreds of metres, are associated with tabular bodies of dolomite‐cemented breccias, cutting the bedding at a high angle, and networks of dolomite veins. Field and petrographic observations indicate that dolomitization was a polyphase process, in which episodes of hydrofracturing and host‐rock dissolution, related to episodic expulsion of overpressured fluids through faults and fracture systems, were associated with phases of host‐rock dolomitization and void cementation. Fluid inclusion analysis indicates that dolomitizing fluids were relatively hot (170 to 260°C). The case study represents an outstanding example of a fossil hydrothermal system, which significantly contributes to the knowledge of such dolomitization systems in continental margin settings. The unusually favourable stratigraphic framework allows precise constraint of the timing of dolomitization (earliest Cretaceous) and, consequently, direct evaluation of the burial setting of dolomitization which, for the upper part of the dolomitized succession, was very shallow or even close to the surface. The described large‐scale hydrothermal system was probably related to deep‐rooted faults, and provides indirect evidence of a significant earliest Cretaceous fault activity in this part of the Alpine Tethys European palaeomargin.