Free vibration of semisubmersibles: A parametric study

Like any other engineering structure, the dynamic aspects of semisubmersible offshore platforms require serious consideration. The free vibrations of the semisubmersible structures have been investigated in the present work, in which the effect of the variation of the length, draft and hull spacings on the natural frequencies and mode shapes has been studied and the nature of the variations and their reasons have been discussed.     

川西地区台阵环境噪声瑞利波相速度层析成像

2006年中国地震局地质研究所地震动力学国家重点实验室在川西地区(26°N~32°N,100°E~105°E)布设了由297台宽频带数字地震仪组成的流动观测台阵.利用该密集台阵29°N以北156个台站2007年1~12月份的地震环境噪声记录和互相关技术,我们得到了所有台站对的面波经验格林函数和瑞利波相速度频散曲线,并进一步反演得到了观测台阵下方2~35 s周期的瑞利波相速度分布图像．本文结果表明,观测台阵覆盖的川滇地块、松潘-甘孜地块和四川盆地的地壳速度结构存在显著差异,具体表现为：(1)短周期（2~8 s）相速度分布与地表构造特征相吻合,作为川滇地块、松潘-甘孜地块和四川盆地之间的边界断裂,龙门山断裂带和鲜水河断裂带对上述三个地块上地壳的速度结构具有明显的控制作用,四川盆地前陆低速特征表明相应区域存在较厚的（约10 km）沉积盖层;(2)中周期（12~18 s）相速度分布表明,川滇地块和松潘-甘孜地块中上地壳速度结构存在明显的不均匀横向变化,并形成了尺度不同且高、低速相间的分块结构,而四川盆地中地壳整体上已经表现出相对高速;(3)长周期（25~35 s）相速度分布表明,松潘-甘孜地块,特别是川滇地块中下地壳表现为广泛的明显低速异常,意味着它们的中下地壳相对软弱,而四川盆地的中下地壳呈现整体性的相对高速,意味着四川盆地具有相对坚硬的中下地壳,并且以汶川地震的震中为界,龙门山断裂带的地壳结构显示了北段为高速异常,南段为低速异常的分段特征．     

Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Evolution of Active and Polar Photospheric Magnetic Fields During the Rise of Cycle 24 Compared to Previous Cycles

The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase and minimum of cycle 23 and the recent rise of cycle 24 are compared with the behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the NSO??s three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) vector spectro-magnetograph (VSM), the spectro-magnetograph and the 512-channel magnetograph instruments, and longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the Mt. Wilson 150-foot tower. We analyzed 37 years of observations from these two observatories that have been observing daily, weather permitting, since 1974, offering an opportunity to study the evolving relationship between the active region and polar fields in some detail over several solar cycles. It is found that the annual averages of a proxy for the active region poloidal magnetic field strength, the magnetic field strength of the high-latitude poleward streams, and the time derivative of the polar field strength are all well correlated in each hemisphere. The active region net poloidal fields effectively disappeared in both hemispheres around 2004 and the polar fields have not become significantly stronger since this time. These results are based on statistically significant cyclical patterns in the active region fields and are consistent with the Babcock?CLeighton phenomenological model for the solar activity cycle. There was more hemispheric asymmetry in the total and maximum active region flux during late cycle 23 (after around 2004), when the southern hemisphere was more active, and the rise of cycle?24, when the northern hemisphere was more active, than at any other time since 1974. We see evidence that the process of cycle 24 field reversal has begun at both poles.     

Flow and transport modeling in the sea-breeze. Part I: A modifiedE — ∈ model with a non-equilibrium level 2.5 closure

In order to overcome shortcomings of the conventionalE — model and to develop a more general model applicable to the variety of atmospheric conditions observed, for example, during a land-sea breeze cycle, a modifiedE — model is proposed. The model is a simplified form of an algebraic stress model including wall proximity effects of Gibson and Launder (1978). The proposed model is similar to the popular Mellor and Yamada (1982) level 2.5 model but does not employ a local equilibrium assumption in the algebraic equations for Reynolds stresses. The resulting model shows a wider realization region under unstable conditions than the Mellor and Yamada model.The modified model is compared herein to observations, higher order closure simulations and large eddy simulations under neutral, stable and convective conditions. Various dissipation rate equations were employed and compared to understand their performance with the modified model. The modifiedE — model reproduced the observed behavior well under all conditions except near the base of an elevated inversion layer under convective conditions. The ability of the model to describe flow dynamics under a wide range of atmospheric stabilities suggests that the model can be used to describe the complicated diurnal behavior of the land-sea breeze circulation.     

Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of the scaling properties and correlation structure of a data set of rainfall time series, aggregated over different temporal resolutions, and observed in 70 raingauges across the Basilicata and Calabria regions of southern Italy, is investigated. Two types of random cascade model, namely canonical and microcanonical models, were used for each raingauge and selected season. For both models, different hypotheses concerning dependency of parameters on time scale and rainfall height can be adopted. In particular, a new approach is proposed which consists of several combinations of models with a different scale dependence of parameters for different temporal resolutions. The goal is to improve the modelling of the main features of rainfall time series, especially for cases where the variability of rainfall changes irregularly with temporal aggregation. The results obtained with the new methodology showed good agreement with the observed data, in particular, for the summer months. In fact, during this season, rainfall heights aggregated at fine temporal resolutions (from 5 to 20 min) are more similar (relative to the winter season) to the values cumulated on 1 or 3 h (due to convective phenomena) and, consequently, the process of rainfall breakdown is nearly stationary for a range of finer temporal resolutions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari     

唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系*

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。     

Trends in the solubility of iron,aluminium, manganese and phosphorus in aerosol collected over the Atlantic Ocean

The solubility of iron, aluminium, manganese and phosphorus has been determined in aerosol samples collected between 49°N and 52°S during three cruises conducted in the Atlantic Ocean as part of the European Union funded IRONAGES programme. Solubilities (defined at pH 4.7) determined for Fe and Al in samples of Saharan dust were significantly lower (medians 1.7% and 3.0%, respectively) than the solubilities of these metals in aerosols from other source regions (whole dataset medians 5.2% and 9.0%, respectively). Mn solubility also varied with aerosol source, but the median solubility of Mn in Saharan dust was very similar to the median for the dataset as a whole (55% and 56%, respectively). The observed solubility of aerosol P was ∼ 32%, with P solubility in Saharan aerosol perhaps as low as 10%. Laboratory studies have indicated that aerosol Fe solubility is enhanced by acid processing. No relationship could be found between Fe solubility and the concentrations of acid species (non-seasalt SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻) nor the net acidity of the aerosol, so we are unable to confirm that this process is significant in the atmosphere. In terms of the supply of soluble Fe to oceanic ecosystems on a global scale, the observed higher solubility for Fe in non-Saharan aerosols is probably not significant because the Sahara is easily the dominant source of Fe to the Atlantic. On a smaller scale however, higher solubility for aerosol Fe may alter our understanding of Fe cycling in regions such as the remote Southern Ocean.