Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

The new fifth-generation Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was driven by ERA reanalyses for the period 1984–2008 over the African continent following the CORDEX experimental protocol. Overall the model succeeds in reproducing the main features of the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and the West African Monsoon (WAM). Biases in surface temperature and precipitation are discussed in relation with some circulation defects noted in the simulation. In the African regions near the equator, the model successfully reproduces the double peak of rainfall due to the double passage of the tropical rainbelt, although it better simulates the magnitude and timing of the second peak of precipitation. CRCM5 captures the timing of the monsoon onset for the Sahel region but underestimates the magnitude of precipitation. The simulated diurnal cycle is quite well simulated for all of the regions, but is always somewhat in advance for the timing of rainfall peak. In boreal summer the CRCM5 simulation exhibits a weak cold bias over the Sahara and the maximum temperature is located too far south, resulting in a southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low. The region of maximum ascent in the deep meridional circulation of the Hadley cell is well located in the CRCM5 simulation, but it is somewhat too narrow. The core of the African Easterly Jet is of the right strength and almost at the right height, but it is displayed slightly southward, as a consequence of the southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low and the thermal wind relationship. These biases appear to be germane to the WAM rainfall band being narrower and not moving far enough northward, resulting in a dry bias in the Sahel.     

Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada

The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.     

Disproportion among Cladocera (Crustacea) skeletal components in lake sediment taphocoenoses and significance with respect to two methods of sub-fossil enumeration

Journal of Paleolimnology - Analysis of Cladocera (Crustacea: Branchiopoda) subfossil remains in lake sediments features prominently in paleolimnological studies. It is well known, however, that...     

Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO₂ concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO₂, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C.     

Using a One-and-a-Half Order Closure Model of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Surface Flux Footprint Estimation

A knowledge of the distribution of the contribution of upwind sources to measurements of vertical scalar flux densities is important for the correct interpretation of eddy covariance data. Several approaches have been developed to estimate this so-called footprint function. Here a new approach based on the ensemble-averaged Navier—Stokes equations is presented. Comparisons of numerical results using this approach with results from other studies under a range of environmental conditions show that the model predictions are robust. Moreover, the approach outlined here has the advantage of a potential wide applicability, due to an ability to take into account the heterogeneous nature of underlying surfaces. For example, the model showed that any variations in surface drag, such as must occur in real life heterogeneous canopies, can exert a marked influence of the shape and extent of flux footprints. Indeed, it seems likely that under such circumstances, estimates of surface fluxes will be weighted towards areas of highest foliage density (and therefore quite likely higher photosynthetic rates) close to the measurement sensor. Three-dimensional footprints during the day and night were also determined for a mixed coniferous forest in european Russia. A marked asymmetry of the footprint in the crosswind direction was observed, this being especially pronounced for non-uniform plant distributions involving vegetation types with different morphological and physiological properties. The model also found that, other things being equal, the footprint peak for forest soil respiration is typically over twice the distance from the above canopy measurement sensor compared to that for canopy photosynthesis. This result has important consequences for the interpretation of annual ecosystem carbon balances by the eddy covariance method.     

Hydrofluoric Acid‐Free Digestion of Geological Samples for the Quantification of Rare Earth Elements by Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Optical Emission Spectrometry

Rare earth elements (REEs) are very important to technological development as well as to geochemical and environmental studies. In this work, hydrofluoric acid (HF) was replaced by condensed phosphoric acid (CPA) in the digestion of geological samples, and the quantification of REEs was performed by inductively coupled plasma‐optical emission spectrometry (ICP‐OES). Six international reference materials (RMs), named DC86318, CGL 111, CGL 124, CGL 126, OKA‐2 and COQ‐1 and three Brazilian ore samples, named Araxá, Catalão and Pitinga were analysed. Only zircon and xenotime, which are potential REE‐bearing minerals, were not completely dissolved. Nevertheless, no REE associated with zircon was detected. The investigated digestion method presented many advantages: It was relatively fast (3 h), avoided fluoride precipitation, it was less hazardous because handling diluted H₃PO₄ is safer than HF, NH₄F or NH₄HF₂ aqueous solutions, it preserved the quartz fittings of the measurement equipment and the final solution contained lower levels of total dissolved solids than those produced by the fusion method.     

Shallow virtual source redatuming by multi‐dimensional deconvolution

Recently, new on‐shore acquisition designs have been presented with multi‐component sensors deployed in the shallow sub‐surface (20 m–60 m). Virtual source redatuming has been proposed for these data to compensate for surface statics and to enhance survey repeatability. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of replacing the correlation‐based formalism that undergirds virtual source redatuming with multi‐dimensional deconvolution, offering various advantages such as the elimination of free‐surface multiples and the potential to improve virtual source repeatability. To allow for data‐driven calibration of the sensors and to improve robustness in cases with poor sensor spacing in the shallow sub‐surface (resulting in a relatively high wavenumber content), we propose a new workflow for this configuration. We assume a dense source sampling and target signals that arrive at near‐vertical propagation angles. First, the data are preconditioned by applying synthetic‐aperture‐source filters in the common receiver domain. Virtual source redatuming is carried out for the multi‐component recordings individually, followed by an intermediate deconvolution step. After this specific pre‐processing, we show that the downgoing and upgoing constituents of the wavefields can be separated without knowledge of the medium parameters, the source wavelet, or sensor characteristics. As a final step, free‐surface multiples can be eliminated by multi‐dimensional deconvolution of the upgoing fields with the downgoing fields.