A revised evolutionary history of armadillos (Dasypus) in North America based on ancient mitochondrial DNA

The large, beautiful armadillo, Dasypus bellus, first appeared in North America about 2.5 million years ago, and was extinct across its southeastern US range by 11 thousand years ago (ka). Within the last 150 years, the much smaller nine‐banded armadillo, D. novemcinctus, has expanded rapidly out of Mexico and colonized much of the former range of the beautiful armadillo. The high degree of morphological similarity between these two species has led to speculation that they might be a single, highly adaptable species with phenotypical responses and geographical range fluctuations resulting from environmental changes. If this is correct, then the biology and tolerance limits for D. novemcinctus could be directly applied to the Pleistocene species, D. bellus. To investigate this, we isolated ancient mitochondrial DNA from late Pleistocene‐age specimens of Dasypus from Missouri and Florida. We identified two genetically distinct mitochondrial lineages, which most likely correspond to D. bellus (Missouri) and D. novemcinctus (Florida). Surprisingly, both lineages were isolated from large specimens that were identified previously as D. bellus. Our results suggest that D. novemcinctus, which is currently classified as an invasive species, was already present in central Florida around 10 ka, significantly earlier than previously believed.     

Dating megafaunal extinction on the Pleistocene Darling Downs,eastern Australia: the promise and pitfalls of dating as a test of extinction hypotheses

A key to understanding Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction dynamics is knowledge of megafaunal ecological response(s) to long-term environmental perturbations. Strategically, that requires targeting fossil deposits that accumulated during glacial and interglacial intervals both before and after human arrival, with subsequent palaeoecological models underpinned by robust and reliable chronologies. Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil localities from the Darling Downs, eastern Australia, provide stratigraphically-intact, abundant megafaunal sequences, which allows for testing of anthropogenic versus climate change megafauna extinction hypotheses. Each stratigraphic unit at site QML796, Kings Creek Catchment, was previously shown to have had similar sampling potential, and the basal units contain both small-sized taxa (e.g., land snails, frogs, bandicoots, rodents) and megafauna. Importantly, sequential faunal horizons show stepwise decrease in taxonomic diversity with the loss of some, but not all, megafauna in the geographically-small palaeocatchment. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of our intensive, multidisciplinary dating study of the deposits (>40 dates). Dating by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C (targeting bone, freshwater molluscs, and charcoal) and thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U/Th (targeting teeth and freshwater molluscs) do not agree with each other and, in the case of AMS ¹⁴C dating, lack internal consistency. Scanning electron microscopy and rare earth element analyses demonstrate that the dated molluscs are diagenetically altered and contain aragonite cements that incorporated secondary young C, suggesting that such dates should be regarded as minimum ages. AMS ¹⁴C dated charcoals provide ages that occur out of stratigraphic order, and cluster in the upper chronological limits of the technique (～40–48 ka). Again, we suggest that such results should be regarded as suspicious and only minimum ages. Subsequent OSL and U/Th (teeth) dating provide complimentary results and demonstrate that the faunal sequences actually span ～120–83 ka, thus occurring beyond the AMS ¹⁴C dating window. Importantly, the dates suggest that the local decline in biological diversity was initiated ～75,000 years before the colonisation of humans on the continent. Collectively, the data are most parsimoniously consistent with a pre-human climate change model for local habitat change and megafauna extinction, but not with a nearly simultaneous extinction of megafauna as required by the human-induced blitzkrieg extinction hypothesis. This study demonstrates the problems inherent in dating deposits that lie near the chronological limits of the radiocarbon dating technique, and highlights the need to cross-check previously-dated archaeological and megafauna deposits within the timeframe of earliest human colonisation and latest megafaunal survival.     

Oil prices and energy technology innovation: An empirical analysis

To achieve environmental sustainability and reduce their vulnerability to oil shocks, countries can develop new energy technologies. Technological advances reduce the cost of structural changes in the energy economy, and thus also increase the political feasibility of such changes. But what explains international variation in the form and quality of energy technology innovation? We build on previous theories and offer an integrated account: increasing oil prices reinforce existing sectoral innovation systems, both politically and economically, thus allowing public policymakers and private entrepreneurs to profitably invest in new energy technologies. We test this theoretical argument against data on public R&D expenditures and patents in the domain of renewable energy technology for industrialized countries from 1989 to 2007. We find strong support for the interactive hypothesis. Thus, we contribute to literatures on (i) domestic responses to international shocks, (ii) environmental sustainability and energy security, and (iii) the political economy of technology innovation.     

Early‐middle Holocene land snail shell stable isotope record from Grotta di Latronico 3 (southern Italy)

This paper compares stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ¹³C (δ¹³Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ¹⁸Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of ¹⁸O‐depleted winter rainfall in their δ¹⁸Os is lost. This suggests that δ¹⁸Os and δ¹³Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ¹⁸Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ¹³Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly ¹³C‐enriched to a ¹³C‐depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ¹³Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.