Complex systems in aeolian geomorphology

Aeolian geomorphology provides a rich ground for investigating Earth surface processes and landforms as complex systems. Sand transport by wind is a classic dissipative process with non-linear dynamics, while dune field evolution is a prototypical self-organisation phenomenon. Both of these broad areas of aeolian geomorphology are discussed and analysed in the context of complexity and a systems approach. A feedback loop analysis of the aeolian boundary-layer-flow/sediment-transport/bedform interactions, based on contemporary physical models, reveals that the system is fundamentally unstable (or at most meta-stable) and likely to exhibit chaotic behaviour. Recent field-experimental research on aeolian streamers and spatio-temporal transport patterns, however, indicates that sand transport by wind may be wholly controlled by a self-similar turbulence cascade in the boundary layer flow, and that key aspects of transport event time-series can be fully reproduced from a combination of (self-organised) 1/f forcing, motion threshold, and saltation inertia. The evolution of various types of bare-sand dunes and dune field patterns have been simulated successfully with self-organising cellular automata that incorporate only simplified physically-based interactions (rules). Because of their undefined physical scale, however, it not clear whether they in fact simulate ripples (bedforms) or dunes (landforms), raising fundamental cross-cutting questions regarding the difference between aeolian dunes, impact ripples, and subaqueous (current) ripples and dunes. An extended cellular automaton (CA) model, currently under development, incorporates the effects of vegetation in the aeolian environment and is capable of simulating the development of nebkhas, blow-outs, and parabolic coastal dunes. Preliminary results indicate the potential for establishing phase diagrams and attractor trajectories for vegetated aeolian dunescapes. Progress is limited, however, by a serious lack of appropriate concepts for quantifying meaningful state variables at the landscape scale. State variables currently used in the bare-sand models are far from capturing the rich 3D topography and patterns and are not sufficiently discriminative to distinguish different attractors. The vegetation component in the extended model, and indeed ecogeomorphic systems in general, pose even graver challenges to establishing appropriate state variables. A re-examination of older concepts, such as landscape entropy, perhaps complemented by recent developments in information theory, may be a potentially fruitful avenue for research, although the outlines of such an implementation are still rather vague.     

The Svalbard Eocene‐Oligocene (?) Central Basin succession: Sedimentation patterns and controls

A synthesis has been undertaken based on regionally compiled data from the post early Eocene foreland basin succession of Svalbard. The aim has been to generate an updated depositional model and link this to controlling factors. The more than kilometer thick progradational succession includes the offshore shales of the Gilsonryggen Member of the Frysjaodden Formation, the shallow marine sandstones of the Battfjellet Formation and the predominantly heterolithic Aspelintoppen Formation, together recording the progressive eastwards infill of the foredeep flanking the West Spitsbergen fold‐and‐thrust belt. Here we present a summary of the paleo‐environmental depositional systems across the basin, their facies and regional distribution and link these together in an updated depositional model. The basin‐margin system prograded with an ascending shelf‐edge trajectory in the order of 1°. The basin fill was bipartite, with offset stacked shelf and shelf‐edge deltas, slope clinothems and basin floor fans in the western and deepest part and a simpler architecture of stacked shelf‐deltas in the shallower eastern part. We suggest a foredeep setting governed by flexural loading, likely influenced by buckling, and potentially developing into a wedge top basin in the mature stage of basin filling. High‐subsidence rates probably counteracted eustatic falls with the result that relative sea‐level falls were uncommon. Distance to the source terrain was small and sedimentation rates was temporarily high. Time‐equivalent deposits can be found outbound of Stappen High in the Vestbakken Volcanic Province and the Sørvestsnaget Basin 300 km further south on the Barents Shelf margin. We cannot see any direct evidence of coupling between these more southerly systems and the studied one; southerly diversion of the sediment‐routing, if any, may have taken place beyond the limit of the preserved deposits.     

Modeling policy and agricultural decisions in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is responsible for the majority of the world’s supply of poppy crops, which are often used to produce illegal narcotics like heroin. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. Parameters representing national subsidies, insurgent influence, and trafficking blockades are varied to represent different conditions that might encourage or discourage poppy agriculture. Our model shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions, and improvements require substantial jumps in intervention resources.     

Estimation of the variability of production by simulating annual cycles of phytoplankton in the central North Sea

A physical and a biological one-dimensional upper layer model for the stimualtion of the annual cycles of both the physical and the phytoplankton dynamics, are used to estimate the annual primary production in the central North Sea. The simulations are driven with actual 3-hourly meteorological standard observations and estimated radiation data for the 25 years 1962 to 1986. The high variability of the forcing generates a considerable variability in the physical and biological oceanic mixed layer dynamics.As an example, the model results from two years with contrasting meteorological conditions, 1963 and 1967, are discussed in detail. The mixing regimes generated are very different which result in different annual phytoplankton cycles. During 1963 when conditions were warm and windless, the early establishment of a calm upper layer water mass enabled a strong spring plankton bloom; whereas in 1967, which was stormy and cold, convective overturning continued until April, suppressing an early spring bloom and prolonging the blooming into summer.For the meteorological conditions observed in 1962 to 1986, the simulations yield an integrated annual water column gross production of 83.5–99.0 gC m⁻²a⁻¹ and an integrated annual water column net production ranging between 43.0 and 64.2 gC m⁻²a⁻¹ for the central North Sea. Grazing by the prescribed copepod population ranges from 24.5 to 40.0 gC m⁻²a⁻¹. The production events are described irregularly over the different years, total gross production varies only about 17%, and total net production by about 21%. The nutrient taken up by the algae is 2.6 to 3.2 times the winter concentration of that layer which in summer is situated above the seasonal thermocline. The additional nutrient is provided by local regeneration and by turbulent entrainment from below the thermocline. Local regeneration in the upper layer provides about 2.4 and 0.3 times the entrained amount of phosphate during spring and summer, respectively. In the 25 years 16 late summer or early fall storm events entrained more than 1.2mmol P m⁻²d⁻¹ into the depleted upper layer, potentially initiating new production events.The simulated annual cycles can be validated with the available data only in the sense that the variability, but not single events, can be compared to measurements. Such comparisons between simulated and field data show that the simulation reproduces the general features of annual phytoplankton cycles. This establishes confidence in those calculated estimates, for which field data are not directly comparable. It is concluded that weather-induced variability can explain most of the observed variability in phytoplankton in annual cycles.A typical annual cycle of phytoplankton biomass dynamics is presented. Ratios of daily process contributions show that the balances between the different processes change during the annual cycle. Diagrams of the mean and seasonal phosphorus flow are derived from the simulations. Two thirds of the primary production are channelled through the copepods, and one third is lost by other processes. Organic matter corresponding to more than the initial amount of nutrients in the mixed layer is sedimenting out of the upper layer, and about the same amount is regenerated at the bottom and mixed into the water column at the end of the year.The critical points in the model: grazing, recycling of nutrients and mixing in the bottom boundary layer, are discussed. The model still needs to be refined with respect to these processes in order to achieve the delicate balances required to generate fall blooms. A series problem is the appropriateness of primary production measurements for a comparison with simulated quantities. Attempts should be made to establish a one-to-one correspondence between model-derived production quantities and measurements.Single events are important, so both sampling strategies and the estimation of fluxes from data should take account of the possible occurrence of such events, which may have been missed in the observations, by presenting ranges covering the realistic variance rather than mean values.     

Larval dispersal and vertical migration behaviour – a simulation study for short dispersal times

Current speed often varies with depth, so vertical movements of larvae are expected to have profound effects on dispersal velocity and therefore dispersal potential. Systematic behaviours are expected to have strong effects on dispersal. However, reliable information on the presence of vertical migrations in larvae is scarce, but the few well investigated empirical examples justify a detailed simulation study and an analysis of potential effects. We present a spatially explicit 3D hydrodynamic model that incorporates biological information in the form of active particles advected in a Lagrangian fashion. The set‐up is designed to analyze the sensitivity of dispersal distances to variation in vertical behaviour of larvae. We simulated short (4 days) pelagic larval durations (PLDs) to determine whether behaviour might be important over short dispersal periods. We found that sinusoidal behaviours (slow vertical migration) in or out of phase with tides did not significantly change the dispersal patterns compared to those of larvae that remained at the surface. By contrast, a quadratic pattern of behaviour resulting in rapid vertical migration, in or out of phase with tides, had dramatic effects on both distance and direction of dispersal. The resulting dispersal kernels were found to be multimodal due to the interaction between tidal and meteorological components in flow. Incorporating biological information on larval migrations in Lagrangian simulation of dispersal will be important in estimates of connectivity and forecasting marine reserve networks.     

A DUAL mission for nuclear astrophysics

DUAL will study the origin and evolution of the elements and explores new frontiers of physics: extreme energies that drive powerful stellar explosions and accelerate particles to macroscopic energies; extreme densities that modify the laws of physics around the most compact objects known; and extreme fields that influence matter in a way that is unknown on Earth. The variability of these extreme objects requires continuous all-sky coverage, while detailed study demands an improvement in sensitivity over previous technologies by at least an order of magnitude. The DUAL payload is composed of an All-Sky Compton Imager (ASCI), and two optical modules, the Laue-Lens Optic (LLO) and the Coded-Mask Optic (CMO). The ASCI serves dual roles simultaneously, both as an optimal focal-plane sensor for deep observations with the optical modules and as a sensitive true all-sky telescope in its own right for all-sky surveys and monitoring. While the optical modules are located on the main satellite, the All-Sky Compton Imager is situated on a deployable structure at a distance of 30?m from the satellite. This configuration not only permits to maintain the less massive payload at the focal distance, it also greatly reduces the spacecraft-induced detector background, and, above all it provides ASCI with a continuous all-sky exposure.     

Isotopic fingerprints on lacustrine organic matter from Laguna Potrok Aike (southern Patagonia, Argentina) reflect environmental changes during the last 16,000 years

A combination of carbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN), Rock Eval-analyses, and stable isotope values of bulk nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and organic carbon (δ¹³C_org) was used to characterize bulk organic matter (OM) of a piston core from the Patagonian maar lake Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina) for the purpose of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Sedimentary data were compared with geochemical signatures of potential OM sources from Laguna Potrok Aike and its catchment area to identify the sources of sedimentary OM. Correlation patterns between isotopic data and TOC/TN ratios allowed differentiation of five distinct phases with different OM composition. Before 8470 calibrated ¹⁴C years before present (cal. yrs BP) and after 7400 cal. yrs BP, isotopic and organo-geochemical fingerprints indicate that the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike consist predominantly of soil and diatom OM with varying admixtures of cyanobacterial and aquatic macrophyte OM. For a short phase of the early Holocene (ca. 8470–7400 cal. yrs BP), however, extremely high input of soil OM is implied by isotopic fingerprints. Previous seismic and geochronological results indicate a severe lake-level drop of 33 m below present-day shortly before 6590 cal. yrs BP. It is suggested that this lake level drop was accompanied by increased erosion of shore banks and channel incision enhancing soil OM deposition in the lake basin. Thus, isotopic data can be linked to hydrological variations at Laguna Potrok Aike and allow a more precise dating of this extremely low lake level. An isotopic mixing model was used including four different sources (soil, cyanobacteria, diatom and aquatic macrophyte OM) to model OM variations and the model results were compared with quantitative microfossil data.     

Variation in calcite dissolution rates:: A fundamental problem?

A comparison of published calcite dissolution rates measured far from equilibrium at a pH of ∼ 6 and above shows well over an order of magnitude in variation. Recently published AFM step velocities extend this range further still. In an effort to understand the source of this variation, and to provide additional constraint from a new analytical approach, we have measured dissolution rates by vertical scanning interferometry. In areas of the calcite cleavage surface dominated by etch pits, our measured dissolution rate is 10^−10.95 mol/cm²/s (PCO₂ 10^−3.41 atm, pH 8.82), 5 to ∼100 times slower than published rates derived from bulk powder experiments, although similar to rates derived from AFM step velocities. On cleavage surfaces free of local etch pit development, dissolution is limited by a slow, “global” rate (10^−11.68 mol/cm²/s). Although these differences confirm the importance of etch pit (defect) distribution as a controlling mechanism in calcite dissolution, they also suggest that “bulk” calcite dissolution rates observed in powder experiments may derive substantial enhancement from grain boundaries having high step and kink density. We also observed significant rate inhibition by introduction of dissolved manganese. At 2.0 μM Mn, the rate diminished to 10^−12.4 mol/cm²/s, and the well formed rhombic etch pits that characterized dissolution in pure solution were absent. These results are in good agreement with the pattern of manganese inhibition in published AFM step velocities, assuming a step density on smooth terraces of ∼9 μm⁻¹.