Modeling of space–time infectious disease spread under conditions of uncertainty

A theoretical model for the spread of infectious diseases in a composite space–time domain is developed. The model has a general form that enables it to account for the basic mechanisms of disease distribution and to incorporate the considerable multisourced uncertainty (caused by physiographic features, disease variability, meteorological conditions, etc.). Starting from the general model formulation regarding the specification of transmission and recovery rates, as well as the population migration dynamics, several subsequent assumptions are introduced that simplify analytical tractability and practical implementation. In particular, linearization involving a deterministic functional representation for the average evolution of the fraction of susceptible individuals allows the formulation of an extended Kalman filter approach for estimation based on the time series observed at a finite set of locations. Different aspects of interest derived from the epidemic space–time model proposed, as well as the performance of the extended Kalman filter procedure, are illustrated through simulations.     

Assessment of concrete bridges subjected to ground motion with an arbitrary angle of incidence: static and dynamic approach

A nonlinear static analysis methodology for the derivation of a set of pushover curves for any angle of incidence of the seismic action (multidirectional pushover curves) for bridges is developed, wherein the interaction between axial force and biaxial moments at critical pier sections or biaxial shear forces at the bearings is taken into account. Dynamic pushover curves (base shear vs. peak deck displacement) for arbitrary angle of incidence of the excitation, are derived for both unidirectional (single-component) and bidirectional (dual-component) ground motion. It is found that neglecting the minor horizontal component leads to underestimation of bridge response, especially along the bridge principal directions and that the angle of incidence of bidirectional excitation affects bridge response, but to a lesser extent than in the case of unidirectional excitation. The proposed procedure is then applied to a straight symmetric bridge, its results are checked against those from response-history analysis, and is found to be sufficiently accurate for practical application. Using the derived results it is also found that the design of the selected bridge is safe since for the design bidirectional earthquake the bridge starts to behave inelastically (the first plastic hinge forms), while its failure occurs for about four times the design seismic action.     

Delivery of dark material to Vesta via carbonaceous chondritic impacts

NASA’s Dawn spacecraft observations of Asteroid (4) Vesta reveal a surface with the highest albedo and color variation of any asteroid we have observed so far. Terrains rich in low albedo dark material (DM) have been identified using Dawn Framing Camera (FC) 0.75 μm filter images in several geologic settings: associated with impact craters (in the ejecta blanket material and/or on the crater walls and rims); as flow-like deposits or rays commonly associated with topographic highs; and as dark spots (likely secondary impacts) nearby impact craters. This DM could be a relic of ancient volcanic activity or exogenic in origin. We report that the majority of the spectra of DM are similar to carbonaceous chondrite meteorites mixed with materials indigenous to Vesta. Using high-resolution seven color images we compared DM color properties (albedo, band depth) with laboratory measurements of possible analog materials. Band depth and albedo of DM are identical to those of carbonaceous chondrite xenolith-rich howardite Mt. Pratt (PRA) 04401. Laboratory mixtures of Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite and basaltic eucrite Millbillillie also show band depth and albedo affinity to DM. Modeling of carbonaceous chondrite abundance in DM (1–6 vol.%) is consistent with howardite meteorites. We find no evidence for large-scale volcanism (exposed dikes/pyroclastic falls) as the source of DM. Our modeling efforts using impact crater scaling laws and numerical models of ejecta reaccretion suggest the delivery and emplacement of this DM on Vesta during the formation of the ～400 km Veneneia basin by a low-velocity (<2 km/s) carbonaceous impactor. This discovery is important because it strengthens the long-held idea that primitive bodies are the source of carbon and probably volatiles in the early Solar System.     

Mid-infrared spectra of differentiated meteorites (achondrites): Comparison with astronomical observations of dust in protoplanetary and debris disks

Mid-infrared (5–25 μm) transmission/absorption spectra of differentiated meteorites (achondrites) were measured to permit comparison with astronomical observations of dust in different stages of evolution of young stellar objects. In contrast to primitive chondrites, achondrites underwent heavy metamorphism and/or extensive melting and represent more advanced stages of planetesimal evolution. Spectra were obtained from primitive achondrites (acapulcoite, winonaite, ureilite, and brachinite) and differentiated achondrites (eucrite, diogenite, aubrite, and mesosiderite silicates). The ureilite and brachinite show spectra dominated by olivine features, and the diogenite and aubrite by pyroxene features. The acapulcoite, winonaite, eucrite, and mesosiderite silicates exhibit more complex spectra, reflecting their multi-phase bulk mineralogy.Mixtures of spectra of the primitive achondrites and differentiated achondrites in various proportions show good similarities to the spectra of the few Myr old protoplanetary disks HD104237A and V410 Anon 13. A spectrum of the differentiated mesosiderite silicates is similar to the spectra of the mature debris disks HD172555 and HD165014. A mixture of spectra of the primitive ureilite and brachinite is similar to the spectrum of the debris disk HD113766. The results raise the possibility that materials produced in the early stage of planetesimal differentiation occur in the protoplanetary and debris disks.     

A DUAL mission for nuclear astrophysics

DUAL will study the origin and evolution of the elements and explores new frontiers of physics: extreme energies that drive powerful stellar explosions and accelerate particles to macroscopic energies; extreme densities that modify the laws of physics around the most compact objects known; and extreme fields that influence matter in a way that is unknown on Earth. The variability of these extreme objects requires continuous all-sky coverage, while detailed study demands an improvement in sensitivity over previous technologies by at least an order of magnitude. The DUAL payload is composed of an All-Sky Compton Imager (ASCI), and two optical modules, the Laue-Lens Optic (LLO) and the Coded-Mask Optic (CMO). The ASCI serves dual roles simultaneously, both as an optimal focal-plane sensor for deep observations with the optical modules and as a sensitive true all-sky telescope in its own right for all-sky surveys and monitoring. While the optical modules are located on the main satellite, the All-Sky Compton Imager is situated on a deployable structure at a distance of 30?m from the satellite. This configuration not only permits to maintain the less massive payload at the focal distance, it also greatly reduces the spacecraft-induced detector background, and, above all it provides ASCI with a continuous all-sky exposure.     

Chondritic ingredients: I. Usual suspects and some oddballs in the Leoville CV3 meteorite

Abstract– Reduced CV3 chondrites are relatively pristine rocks and prime candidates for studies exploring processes that predated planet formation. We closely examined the petrographic features and trace elemental composition of different CV3 constituents in the accretionary breccia Leoville. The petrographic results are presented here. Our sample (2.2 cm²) is not brecciated. The main ingredient—about 65 area%—is fine‐ to coarse‐grained ferromagnesian type I chondrules. Minor constituents (in order of 2‐D abundance) include refractory inclusions, Al‐rich chondrules, and very fine‐crystalline clasts of moderately volatile composition. Type II chondrules and metal nuggets occur sporadically. The chondrule–matrix ratio is approximately 3:1. Medium‐ and coarse‐grained chondrules exhibit porphyritic textures, probably caused by incomplete melting, and frequent, partial or continuous, recrystallized dust rims. The fine‐grained population most likely represents randomly sectioned dust rims. The rim material and some of the medium‐grained objects are relatively troilite‐rich. Iron‐nickel metal is rare. In addition, almost all constituents show strikingly ragged or convoluted outlines. Only a few, rim‐less components exhibit smooth contours. Evidence for incomplete melting and the formation of recrystallized or igneous rims in carbonaceous chondrites is well established, suggesting that both processes were widespread events. The observed features in Leoville support this conclusion. In addition, our findings indicate that surface abrasion in a turbulent dust‐filled regime may have taken place after the consolidation of dust rims. Alternatively, the irregular, convoluted nature of at least the rimmed chondrules may have been inherent to the dust accretion event and was not erased by subsequent heating.     

Investigation of the geochemical impact of CO2 on shallow groundwater: design and implementation of a CO2 injection test in Northeast Germany

A small scale and temporally limited CO₂ injection test was performed in a shallow aquifer to investigate the geochemical impact of CO₂ upon such aquifers and to apply and verify different monitoring methods. Detailed site investigation coupled with multiphase simulations were necessary to design the injection experiment and to set up the monitoring network, before CO₂ was injected over a ten-day period at three injection wells, at a depth of 18?m below surface level into a quaternary sand aquifer located close to the town of Wittstock in Northeast Germany. Monitoring methods comprised groundwater sampling and standard analyses, as well as trace element analyses and isotope analyses; geoelectrical borehole monitoring; passive samplers to analyse temporally integrated for cations and multi-parameter probes that can measure continuously for dissolved CO₂, pH and electrical conductivity. Due to CO₂ injection, total inorganic carbon concentrations increased and pH decreased down to a level of 5.1. Associated reactions comprised the release of major cations and trace elements. Geoelectrical monitoring, as well as isotope analyses and multi-parameter probes proved to be suitable methods for monitoring injected CO₂ and/or the alteration of groundwater.     

Structure of magnetite (Fe<Subscript>3</Subscript>O<Subscript>4</Subscript>) above the Curie temperature: a cation ordering study

A pristine magnetite (Fe₃O₄) specimen was studied by means of Neutron Powder Diffraction in the 273–1,073 K temperature range, in order to characterize its structural and magnetic behavior at high temperatures. An accurate analysis of the collected data allowed the understanding of the behavior of the main structural and magnetic features of magnetite as a function of temperature. The magnetic moments of both tetrahedral and octahedral sites were extracted by means of magnetic diffraction up to the Curie temperature (between 773 and 873 K). A change in the thermal expansion coefficient around the Curie temperature together with an increase in the oxygen coordinate value above 700 K can be observed, both features being the result of a change in the thermal expansion of the tetrahedral site. This anomaly is not related to the magnetic transition but can be explained with an intervened cation reordering, as magnetite gradually transforms from a disordered configuration into a partially ordered one. Based on a simple model which takes into account the cation-oxygen bond length, the degree of order as a function of temperature and consequently the enthalpy and entropy of the reordering process were determined. The refined values are ΔH⁰ = −23.2(1.7) kJ mol⁻¹ and ΔS⁰ = −16(2) J K⁻¹ mol⁻¹. These results are in perfect agreement with values reported in literature (Mack et al. in Solid State Ion 135(1–4):625–630, 2000; Wu and Mason in J Am Ceramic Soc 64(9):520–522, 1981).     

Comparing the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter with the ensemble Kalman filter on synthetic reservoir models

Over the last years, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has become a very popular tool for history matching petroleum reservoirs. EnKF is an alternative to more traditional history matching techniques as it is computationally fast and easy to implement. Instead of seeking one best model estimate, EnKF is a Monte Carlo method that represents the solution with an ensemble of state vectors. Lately, several ensemble-based methods have been proposed to improve upon the solution produced by EnKF. In this paper, we compare EnKF with one of the most recently proposed methods, the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM), on a 2D synthetic reservoir and the Punq-S3 test case. AGM was introduced to loosen up the requirement of a Gaussian prior distribution as implicitly formulated in EnKF. By combining ideas from particle filters with EnKF, AGM extends the low-rank kernel particle Kalman filter. The simulation study shows that while both methods match the historical data well, AGM is better at preserving the geostatistics of the prior distribution. Further, AGM also produces estimated fields that have a higher empirical correlation with the reference field than the corresponding fields obtained with EnKF.     

Why do people not learn from flood disasters? Evidence from Vietnam’s northwestern mountains

This article explores how the causes and impacts of a flood event as perceived by local people shape immediate responses and future mitigation efforts in mountainous northwest Vietnam. Local flood perception is contrasted with scientific perspectives to determine whether a singular flood event will trigger adjustments in mitigation strategies in an otherwise rarely flood-affected area. We present findings from interdisciplinary research drawing on both socioeconomic and biophysical data. Evidence suggests that individual farmers?? willingness to engage in flood mitigation is curbed by the common perception that flooding is caused by the interplay of a bundle of external factors, with climatic factors and water management failures being the most prominent ones. Most farmers did not link the severity of flooding to existing land use systems, thus underlining the lack of a sense of personal responsibility among farmers for flood mitigation measures. We conclude that local governments cannot depend on there being a sufficient degree of intrinsic motivation among farmers to make them implement soil conservation techniques to mitigate future flooding. Policy makers will need to design measures to raise farmers?? awareness of the complex interplay between land use and hydrology and to enhance collective action in soil conservation by providing appropriate incentives and implementing coherent long-term strategies.