An integrated GIS-based method for wind-power estimation: application to western Cyprus

This study presents an integrated method for the estimation and analysis of potential wind-energy resources in Cyprus, which is applied at selected sites on the western side of the island. Firstly, a statistical analysis of wind speed and direction data was conducted at six meteorological stations in western Cyprus, establishing daily, monthly and annual variations of wind speed. Also examined were the Weibull distributions of the wind at each site. These wind statistics serve as the basis for estimating corrected statistical distributions over the extended study areas, which were calculated using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) that modifies wind flow estimates based on local topographic effects. As a result, a geographic and wind-resource database was formulated around each station. Aggregation of this data using statistical weighting methods allows the extrapolation of observed results and the visualization for selected hours of the day over the western part of Cyprus. The results indicate the strong influence of the sea-breeze on the island’s wind potential, and identify a number of areas of higher wind-energy potential suitable for wind-resource exploitation. It is hoped that both the methodology applied and results obtained can be further used by potential investors and wind-energy developers.     

Filling in missing sea-surface temperature satellite data over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea using the DINEOF algorithm

The Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions method is a special technique based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions and developed to reconstruct missing data from satellite images, which is especially useful for filling in missing data from geophysical fields. Successful experiments in the Western Mediterranean encouraged extension of the application eastwards using a similar experimental implementation. The present study summarizes the experimental work done, the implementation of the method and its ability to reconstruct the sea-surface temperature fields over the Eastern Mediterranean basin, and specifically in the Levantine Sea. L3 type Satellite Sea-surface Temperature data has been used and reprocessed in order to recover missing information from cloudy images. Data reconstruction with this method proved to be extremely effective, even when using a relatively small number of time steps, and markedly accelerated the procedure. A detailed comparison with the two oceanographic models proves the accuracy of the method and the validity of the reconstructed fields.     

The climatic wind energy potential — present and future: GIS-analysis in the region of Freiburg im Breisgau based on observed data and Regional Climate Models

The current and future wind energy potentials for two square areas (SA) in the region of Freiburg were assessed and analyzed, with the aim of mitigating climate change by increasing the use of wind energy. For future conditions the regional climate models REMO and CLM were taken into account for the IPCC Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1. One aim was to provide information of the applicability of data from regional climate models in terms of wind energy. As a reference dataset, the wind energy potentials of the two measurement stations of the German Weather Service (DWD) (1961–1990) in Freiburg (SA I) and on the Feldberg (SA II) were assessed. Calculations were carried out by the Wind Analysis and Application Program (WAsP). Results were in terms of visual analysis displayed with maps. While the annual electricity performances of the reference data in SA I and SA II reach up to 7.2 GWh and 10.1 GWh respectively, the calculations for REMO and CLM show an underestimation of the real conditions for every period and Emission Scenario. Hence the applicability of the models in consideration seems to be limited. Nevertheless, with regard to different socio-economic developments (SRES A1B and B1), the results provide an overview of the wind energy potentials’ development in the different periods.     

Olivine or impact melt: Nature of the “Orange” material on Vesta from Dawn

NASA’s Dawn mission observed a great variety of colored terrains on asteroid (4) Vesta during its survey with the Framing Camera (FC). Here we present a detailed study of the orange material on Vesta, which was first observed in color ratio images obtained by the FC and presents a red spectral slope. The orange material deposits can be classified into three types: (a) diffuse ejecta deposited by recent medium-size impact craters (such as Oppia), (b) lobate patches with well-defined edges (nicknamed “pumpkin patches”), and (c) ejecta rays from fresh-looking impact craters. The location of the orange diffuse ejecta from Oppia corresponds to the olivine spot nicknamed “Leslie feature” first identified by Gaffey (Gaffey, M.J. [1997]. Icarus 127, 130–157) from ground-based spectral observations. The distribution of the orange material in the FC mosaic is concentrated on the equatorial region and almost exclusively outside the Rheasilvia basin. Our in-depth analysis of the composition of this material uses complementary observations from FC, the visible and infrared spectrometer (VIR), and the Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND). Several possible options for the composition of the orange material are investigated including, cumulate eucrite layer exposed during impact, metal delivered by impactor, olivine–orthopyroxene mixture and impact melt. Based on our analysis, the orange material on Vesta is unlikely to be metal or olivine (originally proposed by Gaffey (Gaffey, M.J. [1997]. Icarus 127, 130–157)). Analysis of the elemental composition of Oppia ejecta blanket with GRaND suggests that its orange material has ∼25% cumulate eucrite component in a howarditic mixture, whereas two other craters with orange material in their ejecta, Octavia and Arruntia, show no sign of cumulate eucrites. Morphology and topography of the orange material in Oppia and Octavia ejecta and orange patches suggests an impact melt origin. A majority of the orange patches appear to be related to the formation of the Rheasilvia basin. Combining the interpretations from the topography, geomorphology, color and spectral parameters, and elemental abundances, the most probable analog for the orange material on Vesta is impact melt.     

Impacts of subsurface heat storage on aquifer hydrogeochemistry

The use of shallow aquifers for subsurface heat storage in terms of energy management and building climatisation can lead to a temperature rise in the aquifer to 70 °C and above. The influence of temperature changes on individual mineral and sorption equilibria, reaction kinetics and microbial activity is largely known. However, the impact of heating to temperatures as high as 70 °C on the aquifer overall system has not been quantified yet. Temperature-related changes in sediment ion exchange behaviour, dimension and rates of mineral dissolution and precipitation as well as microbially enhanced redox processes were studied in column experiments using aquifer sediment and tap water at 10, 25, 40, and 70 °C. At 70 °C, a change in sediment sorption behaviour for cations and organic acids was postulated based on temporal changes in pH, magnesium, and potassium concentration in the experimental solution. No clear changes of pH, TIC and major cations were found at 10–40 °C. Redox zoning shifted from oxic conditions towards nitrate and iron(III) reducing conditions at 25 and 40 °C and sulphate reducing conditions at 70 °C. This was attributed to (a) a temperature-related increase in microbial reduction activity, and (b) three times higher release of organic carbon from the sediment at 70 °C compared to the lower temperatures. The findings of this study predict that a temperature increase in the subsurface up to 25 °C and above can impair the usability of ground water as drinking and process water, by reducing metal oxides and thus possibly releasing heavy metals from the sediment. Generally, at 70 °C, where clear cation and organic carbon desorption processes were observed and sulphate reducing conditions could be achieved, a site-specific assessment of temperature effects is required, especially for long-term operations of subsurface heat storage facilities.     

A strategy for automated analysis of passive microseismic data to image seismic anisotropy and fracture characteristics

Monitoring of induced seismicity is gaining importance in a broad range of industrial operations from hydrocarbon reservoirs to mining to geothermal fields. Such passive seismic monitoring mainly aims at identifying fractures, which is of special interest for safety and productivity reasons. By analysing shear‐wave splitting it is possible to determine the anisotropy of the rock, which may be caused by sedimentary layering and/or aligned fractures, which in turn offers insight into the state of stress in the reservoir. We present a workflow strategy for automatic and effective processing of passive microseismic data sets, which are ever increasing in size. The automation provides an objective quality control of the shear‐wave splitting measurements and is based on characteristic differences between the two independent eigenvalue and cross‐correlation splitting techniques. These differences are summarized in a quality index for each measurement, allowing identification of an appropriate quality threshold. Measurements above this threshold are considered to be of good quality and are used in further interpretation. We suggest an automated inversion scheme using rock physics theory to test for best correlation of the data with various combinations of fracture density, its strike and the background anisotropy. This fully automatic workflow is then tested on a synthetic and a real microseismic data set.     

Assessment of concrete bridges subjected to ground motion with an arbitrary angle of incidence: static and dynamic approach

A nonlinear static analysis methodology for the derivation of a set of pushover curves for any angle of incidence of the seismic action (multidirectional pushover curves) for bridges is developed, wherein the interaction between axial force and biaxial moments at critical pier sections or biaxial shear forces at the bearings is taken into account. Dynamic pushover curves (base shear vs. peak deck displacement) for arbitrary angle of incidence of the excitation, are derived for both unidirectional (single-component) and bidirectional (dual-component) ground motion. It is found that neglecting the minor horizontal component leads to underestimation of bridge response, especially along the bridge principal directions and that the angle of incidence of bidirectional excitation affects bridge response, but to a lesser extent than in the case of unidirectional excitation. The proposed procedure is then applied to a straight symmetric bridge, its results are checked against those from response-history analysis, and is found to be sufficiently accurate for practical application. Using the derived results it is also found that the design of the selected bridge is safe since for the design bidirectional earthquake the bridge starts to behave inelastically (the first plastic hinge forms), while its failure occurs for about four times the design seismic action.     

Time lapse structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry for continuous geomorphic monitoring

Recent advances are made in earth surface reconstruction with high spatial resolution due to SfM photogrammetry. High flexibility of data acquisition and high potential of process automation allows for a significant increase of the temporal resolution, as well, which is especially interesting to assess geomorphic changes. Two case studies are presented where 4D reconstruction is performed to study soil surface changes at 15 seconds intervals: (a) a thunderstorm event is captured at field scale and (b) a rainfall simulation is observed at plot scale. A workflow is introduced for automatic data acquisition and processing including the following approach: data collection, camera calibration and subsequent image correction, template matching to automatically identify ground control points in each image to account for camera movements, 3D reconstruction of each acquisition interval, and finally applying temporal filtering to the resulting surface change models to correct random noise and to increase the reliability of the measurement of signals of change with low intensity. Results reveal surface change detection with cm‐ to mm‐accuracy. Significant soil changes are measured during the events. Ripple and pool sequences become obvious in both case studies. Additionally, roughness changes and hydrostatic effects are apparent along the temporal domain at the plot scale. 4D monitoring with time‐lapse SfM photogrammetry enables new insights into geomorphic processes due to a significant increase of temporal resolution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why do people not learn from flood disasters? Evidence from Vietnam’s northwestern mountains

This article explores how the causes and impacts of a flood event as perceived by local people shape immediate responses and future mitigation efforts in mountainous northwest Vietnam. Local flood perception is contrasted with scientific perspectives to determine whether a singular flood event will trigger adjustments in mitigation strategies in an otherwise rarely flood-affected area. We present findings from interdisciplinary research drawing on both socioeconomic and biophysical data. Evidence suggests that individual farmers?? willingness to engage in flood mitigation is curbed by the common perception that flooding is caused by the interplay of a bundle of external factors, with climatic factors and water management failures being the most prominent ones. Most farmers did not link the severity of flooding to existing land use systems, thus underlining the lack of a sense of personal responsibility among farmers for flood mitigation measures. We conclude that local governments cannot depend on there being a sufficient degree of intrinsic motivation among farmers to make them implement soil conservation techniques to mitigate future flooding. Policy makers will need to design measures to raise farmers?? awareness of the complex interplay between land use and hydrology and to enhance collective action in soil conservation by providing appropriate incentives and implementing coherent long-term strategies.