Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

The Ruhr is an “old acquaintance” in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.     

Measurements of translation, rotation and strain: new approaches to seismic processing and inversion

We propose a novel approach to seismic tomography based on the joint processing of translation, strain and rotation measurements. Our concept is based on the apparent S and P velocities, defined as the ratios of displacement velocity and rotation amplitude, and displacement velocity and divergence amplitude, respectively. To assess the capability of these new observables to constrain various aspects of 3D Earth structure, we study their corresponding finite-frequency kernels, computed with a combination of spectral-element simulations and adjoint techniques. The principal conclusion is that both the apparent S and P velocities are generally sensitive only to small-scale near-receiver structure, irrespective of the type of seismic wave considered. It follows that knowledge of deeper Earth structure would not be required in tomographic inversions for local structure based on the new observables. In a synthetic finite-perturbation test, we confirm the ability of the apparent S and P velocities to directly detect both the location and the sign of shallow lateral velocity variations.     

Late glacial environment and climate development in northeastern China derived from geochemical and isotopic investigations of the varved sediment record from Lake Sihailongwan (Jilin Province)

Total organic carbon (TOC) content, total nitrogen (TN) content, stable nitrogen isotope (δ¹⁵N) and stable organic carbon isotope (δ¹³C_org) ratios were continuously analysed on a high resolution sediment profile from Lake Sihailongwan (SHL), covering the time span between 16,500 and 9,500 years BP. Strong variations of the investigated proxy parameters are attributed to great climatic fluctuations during the investigated time period. Variations in organic carbon isotope ratios and the ratio of TOC/TN (C/N ratio) are discussed with respect to changing proportions of different organic matter (OM) sources to bulk sedimentary OM. Phases of high TOC content, high TN content, depleted δ¹³C_org values and high δ¹⁵N values are interpreted as times with increased productivity of lacustrine algae in relation to input of terrigenous organic matter. Two distinct phases of enriched nitrogen isotope ratios from 14,200 to 13,700 and 11,550 to 11,050 years BP point towards a reduced phytoplankton discrimination against ¹⁵N due to a diminished dissolved inorganic nitrogen pool. The combination of geochemical (TOC, TN, C/N ratio) and isotopic (δ¹³C_org, δ¹⁵N) proxy parameters points to a division of climate development into four stages. A cold and dry stage before 14,200 years BP, a warm optimum stage with high phytoplankton productivity from 14,200 to 12,450 BP, a colder and drier stage from 12,450 to 11,600 BP and a stage of climatic amelioration with high variability in TOC and TN contents after 11,600 BP. These results are discussed in relation to monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate development of the late glacial.     

Monitoring 25 years of land cover change dynamics in Africa: A sample based remote sensing approach

The study examines the changes in sub-Saharan's natural land cover resources for a 25 year period. We assess these changes in four broad land cover classes – forests, natural non-forest vegetation, agriculture and barren – by using high spatial resolution Earth observing satellites. Two sets of sample images, one ‘historical’ targeted at 1975 and a second ‘recent’ targeted at the year 2000, have been selected through a stratified random sampling technique over the study area, targeting a sampling rate of 1% in each of the strata. The results, presented at eco-region level and aggregated at sub-Saharan level, show a 57% increase in agriculture area at the expense of natural vegetation which has itself decreased by 21% over the period, with nearly 5 million hectares forest and non-forest natural vegetation lost per year. The impacts of these changes on the environment on one site and on the socio-economy on the other site are discussed and possible pressures on human well being are highlighted.     

Dimensional analysis of the earthquake‐induced pounding between adjacent structures

In this paper the dynamic response of two and three pounding oscillators subjected to pulse‐type excitations is revisited with dimensional analysis. Using Buckingham's Π‐theorem the number of variables that govern the response of the system is reduced by three. When the response is presented in the dimensionless Π‐terms remarkable order emerges. It is shown that regardless of the acceleration level and duration of the pulse all response spectra become self‐similar and follow a single master curve. This is true despite the realization of finite duration contacts with increasing durations as the excitation level increases. All physically realizable contacts (impacts, continuous contacts, and detachments) are captured via a linear complementarity approach. The study confirms the existence of three spectral regions. The response of the most flexible among the two oscillators amplifies in the low range of the frequency spectrum (flexible structures); whereas, the response of the most stiff among the two oscillators amplifies at the upper range of the frequency spectrum (stiff structures). Most importantly, the study shows that pounding structures such as colliding buildings or interacting bridge segments may be most vulnerable for excitations with frequencies very different from their natural eigenfrequencies. Finally, by applying the concept of intermediate asymptotics, the study unveils that the dimensionless response of two pounding oscillators follows a scaling law with respect to the mass ratio, or in mathematical terms, that the response exhibits an incomplete self‐similarity or self‐similarity of the second kind with respect to the mass ratio. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the in‐plane response of earthen masonry infill panels partitioned by sliding joints

The vulnerability of infilled frames represents a critical issue in many regions with high seismicity around the world where infills are typically made of heavy masonry as they are used for thermal control of the buildings because of their thermal inertia. In this context, the use of earthen masonry infills can give a superior performance because of their ability to regulate thermal‐hygrometric performance of the building and sustainability of its life‐cycle. This paper presents a numerical study on the seismic behaviour of infill walls made of earthen masonry and partitioned with horizontal wooden planks that allow the relative sliding of the partitions. The combination of the deformability of earthen masonry and the sliding mechanism occurring along the wooden planks gives a high ductility capacity to the in‐plane response of the infill and, at the same time, significantly reduces its stiffness and strength, as compared with traditional solid infills made of fired clay units. As a result, the detrimental interaction with the frame and the damage in the infill when subjected to in‐plane loading can be minimized. The numerical model is validated with results from an experimental study and is used to perform a parametric analysis to examine the influence of variations in the geometry and mechanical properties of the infill walls, as well as the configuration of the sliding joints. Based on the findings of this study, design guidelines for practical applications are provided, together with simple formulation for evaluating their performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the morphological characteristics of overdeepenings in high‐mountain glacier beds

Overdeepenings, i.e. closed topographic depressions with adverse slopes in the direction of flow, are characteristic for glacier beds and glacially sculpted landscapes. Quantitative information about their morphological characteristics, however, has so far hardly been available. The present study provides such information by combining the analysis of (a) numerous bed overdeepenings below still existing glaciers of the Swiss Alps and the Himalaya‐Karakoram region modelled with a robust shear stress approximation and (b) detailed bathymetries from recently exposed lakes in the Peruvian Andes. The investigated overdeepenings exist where glacier surface slopes are low (< 5°–10°), occur in bedrock or morainic material and are most commonly a fraction of a kilometre squared in surface area, hundreds of metres long, about half the length in width and tens of metres deep. They form under conditions of low to high basal shear stresses, at cirque, confluence, trunk valley and terminus positions. The most striking phenomenon, however, is the high variability of their geometries: Depths, surface areas, lengths and widths of the overdeepenings vary over orders of magnitude and are only weakly – if at all – interrelated. Inclinations of adverse slopes do not differ significantly from those of forward slopes and are in many cases higher than so far assumed theoretical limits for supercooling of ascending water and corresponding closure of sub‐glacial channels. Such steep adverse slopes are a robust observation and in support of recently developed new concepts concerning the question about where supercooling of sub‐glacial water and closure of ice channels can or must occur. However, the question of when and under what climatic, topographic and ice conditions the overdeepenings had formed remains unanswered. This open question constitutes a key problem concerning the interpretation of observed overdeepenings, the understanding of the involved glacio‐hydraulic processes and the possibility of realistic predictive modelling of overdeepening formation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.