A photoelectric detector for the measurement of photolysis frequencies of ozone and other atmospheric molecules

Photoelectric detectors for the measurement of photolysis frequencies of different trace gases in the atmosphere are described. They exhibit uniform response characteristics over one hemisphere (2 sr) and wavelength characteristics closely matched to those of the photolysis frequencies J _O1D, J _NO2, and J _NO3, respectively. Absolute calibration of the J _O1D detector was performed by chemical actinometry with an accuracy of ±16 percent. Simultaneous measurements of J _NO2 and J _O1D are presented.     

Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.     

A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period

Summary A comparison of 8 regional atmospheric model systems was carried out for a three-month late summer/early autumn period in 1995 over the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. All models were configured on a common grid using similar surface and lateral boundary conditions, and ran in either data assimilation mode (short term forecasts plus data assimilation), forecast mode (short term forecasts initialised daily with analyses) or climate mode (no re-initialisation of model interior during entire simulation period). Model results presented in this paper were generally post processed as daily averaged quantities, separate for land and sea areas when relevant. Post processed output was compared against available analyses or observations of cloud cover, precipitation, vertically integrated atmospheric specific humidity, runoff, surface radiation and near surface synoptic observations. The definition of a common grid and lateral forcing resulted in a high degree of agreement among the participating model results for most cases. Models operated in climate mode generally displayed slightly larger deviations from the observations than the data assimilation or forecast mode integration, but in all cases synoptic events were well captured. Correspondence to near surface synoptic quantities was good. Significant disagreement between model results was shown in particular for cloud cover and the radiative properties, average precipitation and runoff. Problems with choosing appropriate initial soil moisture conditions from a common initial soil moisture field resulted in a wide range of evaporation and sensible heat flux values during the first few weeks of the simulations, but better agreement was shown at later times. Received September 8, 2000 Revised April 3, 2001     

Review of numerical methods for nonhydrostatic weather prediction models

Summary ?Currently available computer power allows to run operational numerical weather prediction models at resolutions higher than 10 km. The aim of such high resolution modeling is the prediction of local weather, including orographically induced winds and local precipitation patterns. In this range the hydrostatic approximation is no longer valid and nonhydrostatic models have to be used instead. For several decades these models have been developed for research purposes only, but operational application is now reality. In this paper, the numerical methods used in current nonhydrostatic forecast models will be reviewed and some promising techniques in this field will be discussed. Special attention is given to aspects such as the choice of the vertical coordinate, the efficiency of algebraic solvers for semi-implicit time discretizations, and accurate and non-oscillatory advection schemes. Received July 6, 2001; revision October 12, 2001     

Climatology of Ozone, PAN, CO, and NMHC in the Free Troposphere Over the Southern North Atlantic

Free tropospheric measurements of ozone, peroxyacetylnitrate andprecursors (CO, NMHC) that were made within the framework of the EUROTRACsub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) between 1990 and 1995 at theGAW station Izana, Tenerife (28°18N, 16°30W) arediscussed. The average annual cycles reveal the importance of transport fromnorthern mid-latitudes and the role of photo-chemistry. According toair-mass trajectories, which were supplied to us from AEROCE(Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment), transport from northernmid-latitudes is associated with high precursor concentrations in winter,whereas ozone concentrations in winter are not much influenced by transportpatterns, suggesting a rather uniform distribution over the northern part ofthe Northern Hemisphere around mean value of 43 ± 5 ppb. In summer,high ozone concentrations of up to 90 ppb are often encountered duringtransport from north, while the levels of precursors are much lower than inwinter, because of photochemical destruction. Trajectories from southerlylatitudes and the Sahara usually have the lowest ozone concentrationsassociated with them.     

Finite volume method on unstructured grids in 3D with applications to the simulation of gravity waves

Summary ?A code for the simulation of atmospheric flows in 3D is presented. The underlying mathematical model is fully compressible, it takes gravity into account but Coriolis forces, turbulence and viscosity are neglected. The general numerical code consists of a finite volume discretization on unstructured hexahedral grids in 3D. The code is presently being investigated on applications to the calculation of atmospheric gravity waves on a mesh which has a structured type and is locally refined near the orography. We develop two schemes, the main difference between them lies in the different discretizations for the mass fluxes. We show that both schemes resolve typical structures of gravity waves in potential flow, linear hydrostatic motion and nonlinear non-hydrostatic regime. We compare advantages and disadvantages of the developed schemes. Received April 20, 2001; revised September 10, 2001     

Air Pollution Transport in an Alpine Valley: Results From Airborne and Ground-Based Observations

An observational dataset from a wintertime field campaign in the Inn Valley, Austria, is analysed in order to study mechanisms of air pollution transport in an Alpine valley. The results illustrate three types of mechanisms: transport by a density current, back-and-forth transport by valley winds, and transport by slope winds. The first type is associated with an air mass difference along the valley. Cooler air located in the lower part of the valley behaves like a density current and produces the advection of pollutants by upvalley winds. In the second type, strong horizontal gradients in pollution concentrations exist close to ground. Multiple wind reversals result in a back-and-forth transport of pollutants by weak valley winds. In the third type, upslope winds during daytime decrease low-level pollution concentrations and cause the formation of elevated pollution layers.     

A theory for the scalar roughness and the scalar transfer coefficients over snow and sea ice

Although the bulk aerodynamic transfer coefficients for sensible (C _H ) and latent (C _E ) heat over snow and sea ice surfaces are necessary for accurately modeling the surface energy budget, they have been measured rarely. This paper, therefore, presents a theoretical model that predicts neutral-stability values of C _H and C _E as functions of the wind speed and a surface roughness parameter. The crux of the model is establishing the interfacial sublayer profiles of the scalars, temperature and water vapor, over aerodynamically smooth and rough surfaces on the basis of a surface-renewal model in which turbulent eddies continually scour the surface, transferring scalar contaminants across the interface by molecular diffusion. Matching these interfacial sublayer profiles with the semi-logarithmic inertial sublayer profiles yields the roughness lengths for temperature and water vapor. When coupled with a model for the drag coefficient over snow and sea ice based on actual measurements, these roughness lengths lead to the transfer coefficients. C _E is always a few percent larger than CH. Both decrease monotonically with increasing wind speed for speeds above 1 m s^–1, and both increase at all wind speeds as the surface gets rougher. Both, nevertheless, are almost always between 1.0 × 10^–3 and 1.5 × 10^–3.     

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.     

A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.