Markov based transition probability geostatistics in groundwater applications: assumptions and limitations

Markov based transition probability geostatistics (MTPG) for categorical variables, as implemented by the methodological framework introduced by Carle and Fogg (Math Geol 29(7):891–918, 1997) and extended thereafter, have been extensively applied for the three-dimensional (3D) statistical representation of hydrofacies in real-world aquifers, and the conditional simulation of 3D lithologies for groundwater flow and transport simulations. While conceptually simple and easy to implement, conditional simulation using the MTPG approach is not limitation free. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no study that raises such concerns in the light of theoretical arguments and numerical findings. That said, the purpose of this study is twofold: (1) present a brief and coherent overview of the basic theory, fundamental assumptions, and limitations of the MTPG methodological framework, and (2) assess its capabilities on the basis of a simple two-dimensional test-case, using large ensembles of stochastic realizations. Contrary to real-world 3D aquifers, where the actual geology is unknown, and the quality of the simulations can be assessed solely on the basis of semi-quantitative arguments using properly selected sets of stochastic realizations, test-cases allow for direct quantitative assessments based on the application of statistical measures to large ensembles of synthetic realizations. Our analysis and obtained results show that stochastic modeling of actual geologies using the MTPG approach of Carle and Fogg (1997), is characterized by simplifying assumptions and theoretical limitations, with the simulated random fields exhibiting statistical structures that strongly depend on the problem under consideration and the modeling assumptions made, leading to increased epistemic uncertainties in the obtained results.     

SPM response to tide and river flow in the hyper-turbid Ems River

In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of fine sediments in the hyper-turbid Lower Ems River, with focus on the river’s upper reaches, a stretch of about 25 km up-estuary of Terborg. Our analysis is based on long records of suspended particulate matter (SPM) from optical backscatter (OBS) measurements close to the bed at seven stations along the river, records of salinity and water level measurements at these stations, acoustic measurements on the vertical mud structure just up-estuary of Terborg and oxygen profiles in the lower 3 m of the water column close to Leerort and Terborg. Further, we use cross-sectionally averaged velocities computed with a calibrated numerical model. Distinction is made between four timescales, i.e. the semi-diurnal tidal timescale, the spring–neap tidal timescale, a timescale around an isolated peak in river flow (i.e. about 3 weeks) and a seasonal timescale. The data suggest that a pool of fluid/soft mud is present in these upper reaches, from up-estuary of Papenburg to a bit down-estuary of Terborg. Between Terborg and Gandersum, SPM values drop rapidly but remain high at a few gram per litre. The pool of fluid/soft mud is entrained/mobilized at the onset of flood, yielding SPM values of many tens gram per litre. This suspension is transported up-estuary with the flood. Around high water slack, part of the suspension settles, being remixed during ebb, while migrating down-estuary, but likely not much further than Terborg. Around low water slack, a large fraction of the sediment settles, reforming the pool of fluid mud. The rapid entrainment from the fluid mud layer after low water slack is only possible when the peak flood velocity exceeds a critical value of around 1 m/s, i.e. when the stratified water column seems to become internally supercritical. If the peak flood velocity does not reach this critical value, f.i. during neap tide, fluid mud is not entrained up to the OBS sensors. Thus, it is not classical tidal asymmetry, but the peak flood velocity itself which governs the hyper-turbid state in the Lower Ems River. The crucial role of river flow and river floods is in reducing these peak flood velocities. During elongated periods of high river flow, in e.g. wintertime, SPM concentrations reduce, and the soft mud deposits consolidate and possibly become locally armoured as well by sand washed in from the river. We have no observations that sediments are washed out of the hyper-turbid zone. Down-estuary of Terborg, where SPM values do not reach hyper-turbid conditions, the SPM dynamics are governed by classical tidal asymmetry and estuarine circulation. Hence, nowhere in the river, sediments are flushed from the upper reaches of the river into the Ems-Dollard estuary during high river flow events. However, exchange of sediment between river and estuary should occur because of tide-induced dispersion.     

Undersampling in action and at scale: application to the COVID-19 pandemic

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - It is the purpose of this short communication to analyze the possible caveats in the statistical interpretation of collected data,...     

Direct estimation of seismic response in reduced-degree-of-freedom isolation and energy dissipation systems

A methodology for the development of design tools for direct estimation of peak inelastic response in reduced-degree-of-freedom (RDOF) isolation and energy dissipation systems is presented. The suggested procedure is an extension of an earlier method addressing purely hysteretic isolation systems. Herein, the dynamic equation of motion is first normalised to reduce the number of design parameters that significantly affect the response. The sensitivity of normalised response quantities to the amplitude of the ground motion is then investigated through extensive parametric nonlinear dynamic analyses of isolated single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with linear viscous damping using code-based target spectra. Regression analysis is subsequently employed to develop generalised design equations (GDEs) suitable for design. Further investigations are made to address nonlinear viscous damping and the effect of the transverse component of seismic action in two-degree-of freedom (2DOF) systems under bidirectional excitation, making the procedure applicable to common bridge isolation schemes. GDEs constitute an alternative to equivalent linearisation approaches commonly adopted by codes, informing the selection among alternative isolation and energy dissipations schemes without requiring iterative analysis. The approach is incorporated in the Deformation-Based Design methodology for seismically isolated bridges in a forthcoming paper.     

Offset dependence of overburden time-shifts from ultrasonic data

Depletion or injection into a reservoir implies stress changes and strains in the reservoir and its surroundings. This may lead to measurable time-shifts for seismic waves propagating in the subsurface. To better understand the offset dependence of time-shifts in the overburden, we have systematically quantified the time-shifts of three different overburden shales in controlled laboratory tests. These experiments may be viewed as an analogue to the time-shifts recorded from seismic field surveys. For a range of different stress paths, defined as the ratio between the horizontal and the vertical stress changes, the changes of the P-wave velocities in different directions were measured such that the offset dependence of time-shifts for different stress paths could be studied. The time-shifts are stress path dependent, which is particularly pronounced at large offsets. For all stress paths, the time-shifts exhibit a linearly decreasing trend with increasing offset, that is, a negative offset gradient. At zero offset, for which the ray path is normal to the bedding, the time-shifts are similar for all investigated stress paths. The isotropic stress path is associated with the smallest offset gradient of the time-shifts. In contrast, the constant-mean-stress path shows the largest gradient with a flip in the polarity of the time-shifts for the largest offsets. The separate contributions from the strain and velocity changes to the time-shifts were also quantified. The time-shifts for the isotropic stress path are dominated by the contribution from velocity changes at all offsets. In contrast, the strain contributes significantly to the time-shifts at small offsets for the constant-mean-stress path. This shows that the offset dependence in pre-stack seismic data may be a key to understand the changes of subsurface stresses, pore pressure and strain upon depletion or injection. To utilize this knowledge from laboratory experiments, calibrated rock physics models and correlations are needed to constrain the seismic time-shifts and to obtain an adequately updated geological model reflecting the true anisotropic nature of the subsurface. This may have important implications for improved recovery and safety, particularly in mature fields.     

Design considerations for using Distributed Acoustic Sensing for cross-well seismics: A case study for CO2 storage

Downhole monitoring with fibre-optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) systems offers unprecedented spatial resolution. At the same time, costs are reduced since repeated wireline surveys can be replaced by the permanent installation of comparatively cheap fibre cables. However, the single component nature of fibre data requires novel approaches when designing a monitoring project such as cross-well seismics. At the example of the shallow CO₂ injection test site in Svelvik, Norway, we model the evolution of velocity changes during CO₂ injection based on rock physics theory. Different cross-well seismic design scenarios are then considered to evaluate the best design and the limits of this method to detect containment breach. We present a series of evaluation tools to compare the effect of different well spacings for cross-well seismic tomography. In addition to travel-times, we also consider characteristic amplitude changes along the fibre unique to DAS strain measurements, which might add a constraint to the inversion. We also compare the effect of using helical fibres instead of classical straight fibres. We thus present a toolbox to evaluate and compare different monitoring design options for fibre optic downhole installations for cross-well monitoring.     

Machine learning based identification of dominant controls on runoff dynamics

Hydrological models used for flood prediction in ungauged catchments are commonly fitted to regionally transferred data. The key issue of this procedure is to identify hydrologically similar catchments. Therefore, the dominant controls for the process of interest have to be known. In this study, we applied a new machine learning based approach to identify the catchment characteristics that can be used to identify the active processes controlling runoff dynamics. A random forest (RF) regressor has been trained to estimate the drainage velocity parameters of a geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) in ungauged catchments, based on regionally available data. We analyzed the learning procedure of the algorithm and identified preferred donor catchments for each ungauged catchment. Based on the obtained machine learning results from catchment grouping, a classification scheme for drainage network characteristics has been derived. This classification scheme has been applied in a flood forecasting case study. The results demonstrate that the RF could be trained properly with the selected donor catchments to successfully estimate the required GIUH parameters. Moreover, our results showed that drainage network characteristics can be used to identify the influence of geomorphological dispersion on the dynamics of catchment response.     

Nano-mechanical Properties and Pore-Scale Characterization of Different Rank Coals

Characterization of coal micro-structure and the associated rock mechanical properties are of key importance for coal seam exploration, coal bed methane development, enhanced coal bed methane production and CO₂ storage in deep coal seams. Considerable knowledge exists about coal chemical properties, but less is known about the nanoscale to the micro-scale structure of coals and how they change with coal strength across coal ranks. Thus, in this study, 3D X-ray micro-computed tomography (with a voxel size of 3.43 µm) and nano-indentation tests were conducted on coal samples of different ranks from peat to anthracite. The micro-structure of peats showed a well-developed pore system with meso- and micro-pores. The meso-pores essentially disappear with increasing rank, whereas the micro-pores persist and then increase past the bituminous rank. The micro-fracture system develops past the peat stage and by sub-bituminous ranks and changes into larger and mature fracture systems at higher ranks. The nano-indentation modulus showed the increasing trend from low- to high-rank coal with a perfect linear relationship with vitrinite reflectance and is highly correlated with carbon content as expected.

     

Orbit and origin of the LL7 chondrite Dishchii'bikoh (Arizona)

The trajectory and orbit of the LL7 ordinary chondrite Dishchii'bikoh are derived from low‐light video observations of a fireball first detected at 10:56:26 UTC on June 2, 2016. Results show a relatively steep ~21° inclined orbit and a short 1.13 AU semimajor axis. Following entry in Earth's atmosphere, the meteor luminosity oscillated corresponding to a meteoroid spin rate of 2.28 ± 0.02 rotations per second. A large fragment broke off at 44 km altitude. Further down, mass was lost to dust during flares at altitudes of 34, 29, and 25 km. Surviving meteorites were detected by Doppler weather radar and several small 0.9–29 g meteorites were recovered under the radar reflection footprint. Based on cosmogenic radionuclides and ground‐based radiometric observations, the Dishchii'bikoh meteoroid was 80 ± 20 cm in diameter assuming the density was 3.5 g/cm³. The meteoroid's collisional history confirms that the unusual petrologic class of LL7 does not require a different parent body than three previously observed LL chondrite falls. Dishchii'bikoh was ejected 11 Ma ago from parent body material that has a 4471 ± 6 Ma U‐Pb age, the same as that of Chelyabinsk (4452 ± 21 Ma). The distribution of the four known pre‐impact LL chondrite orbits is best matched by dynamical modeling if the source of LL chondrites is in the inner asteroid belt in a low inclined orbit, with the highly inclined Dishchii'bikoh being the result of interactions with Earth before impacting.     

On the formation of diaplectic glass: Shock and thermal experiments with plagioclase of different chemical compositions

This contribution addresses the role of chemical composition, pressure, temperature, and time during the shock transformation of plagioclase into diaplectic glass—i.e., maskelynite. Plagioclase of An_50‐57 and An₉₄ was recovered as almost fully isotropic maskelynite from room temperature shock experiments at 28 and 24 GPa. The refractive index (RI) decreased to values of a quenched mineral glass for An_50‐57 plagioclase shocked to 45 GPa and shows a maximum in An₉₄ plagioclase shocked to 41.5 GPa. The An₉₄ plagioclase experiments can serve as shock thermobarometer for lunar highland rocks and howardite, eucrite, and diogenite meteorites. Shock experiments at 28, 32, 36, and 45 GPa and initial temperatures of 77 and 293 K on plagioclase (An_50‐57) produced materials with identical optical and Raman spectroscopic properties. In the low temperature (<540 K) region, the formation of maskelynite is entirely controlled by shock pressure. The RI of maskelynite decreased in heating experiments of 5 min at temperatures of >770 K, thus, providing a conservative upper limit for the postshock temperature history of the rock. Although shock recovery experiments and static pressure experiments differ by nine orders of magnitude in typical time scale (microseconds versus hours), the amorphization of plagioclase occurs at similar pressure and temperature conditions with both methods. The experimental shock calibration of plagioclase can, together with other minerals, be used as shock thermobarometer for naturally shocked rocks.