Citizens' perceptions of justice in international climate policy: an empirical analysis

Relying on a recent survey of more than 3400 participants from China, Germany, and the US, this article empirically analyses citizens' perceptions of key guiding principles for sharing mitigation costs across countries, justification of climate policy and trust in climate policy. Our findings suggest that the ranking of the main principles for burden-sharing is identical in China, Germany, and the US: accountability followed by capability, egalitarianism, and sovereignty. Thus, on a general level, citizens across these countries seem to have a common (normative) understanding of fairness. We therefore find no evidence that citizens' (stated) fairness preferences are detrimental to future burden-sharing agreements. In all three countries a majority of citizens considers international climate policy to be justified, but citizens' perceptions differ across specific items and countries. Finally, a substantial portion of citizens in all countries exhibit a lack of trust in international climate agreements.

Policy relevance

Disagreement over the distribution of mitigation costs across countries is blocking current negotiations about a new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. At the heart of this disagreement are different perceptions of distributive justice among those involved in climate policy making. Our findings show that there is no difference in the ranking of fairness principles across citizens in China, Germany, and the US, suggesting that the common ground for crafting a future agreement is larger than expected. In particular, the accountability principle should weigh heavily when deciding on the burden-sharing. In addition, our findings suggest that in order to gain support among citizens, international climate policy may need to take measures to improve trust.     

Aboveground Growth and Competition in Forest Gap Models: An Analysis for Studies of Climatic Change

Gap models have been used extensively in ecological studies of forest structure and succession, and they should be useful tools for studying potential responses of forests to climatic change. There is a wide variety of gap models with different degrees of physiological detail, and the manner in which the effects of climatic factors are analyzed varies across that range of detail. Here we consider how well the current suite of gap models can accommodate climatic-change issues, and we suggest what physiological attributes and responses should be added to better represent responses of aboveground growth and competition. Whether a gap model is based on highly empirical, aggregated growth functions or more mechanistic expressions of carbon uptake and allocation, the greatest challenge will be to express allocation correctly. For example, incorporating effects of elevated CO₂ requires that the fixed allometry between stem volume and leaf area be made flexible. Simulation of the effects of climatic warming should incorporate the possibility of a longer growing season and acclimation of growth processes to changing temperature. To accommodate climatic-change factors, some of the simplicity of gap models must be sacrificed by increasing the amount of physiological detail, but it is important that the capability of the models to predict competition and successional dynamics not be sacrificed.     

Relaxed Eddy Accumulation Simulations of Aerosol Number Fluxes and Potential Proxy Scalars

Direct eddy-covariance measurements of aerosol number fluxes obtained during the 2007 CHATS field experiment in Dixon, California, USA are compared with relaxed eddy accumulation simulations using temperature and water vapour concentration as proxy scalars. After a brief discussion of the limited time response of the aerosol measurement, the applicability of temperature and water vapour concentration as proxy scalars for aerosol number concentration is investigated by evaluating scalar and spectral correlation coefficients as simple measures of scalar similarity. In addition, the proportionality factor b, which compensates for the use of a constant sampling flow in relaxed eddy accumulation, is derived from the time series of aerosol number, temperature and water vapour, and its variability is analyzed. The reduction of the b factor due to application of a deadband, i.e. the rejection of data when the vertical wind speed is close to zero, is evaluated for all three studied scalars, and compared with published functional relationships. In this study, using temperature or water vapour as proxy scalars for aerosol number shows no advantage over the use of a constant b factor. Thus, it is suggested to apply a deadband H _REA  = w′/σ _w  = 0.6 to 0.8 (where w′ is the vertical velocity fluctuation and σ _w is its standard deviation), to use a theoretical b factor based on a parameterization that includes a stability dependence, and to calculate the deadband effect according to a derived relation for aerosol relaxed eddy accumulation.     

Stability Dependence of the Eddy-Accumulation Coefficients for Momentum and Scalars

From a set of turbulence data collected with a three-axis sonic anemometer/thermometer and described in a companion paper, we simulate the eddy-accumulation process for sensible heat and momentum fluxes. The resulting eddy-accumulation coefficient for momentum clearly depends on surface-layer stability; at neutral stability, its value is 0.63. On supplementing the scalar eddy-accumulation coefficients that we derive from our sensible heat flux data with values of sensible and latent heat flux coefficients reported by Businger and Oncley, we also find that scalar eddy-accumulation coefficients depend on stability, though more weakly than does the momentum coefficient. The coefficients for sensible and latent heat show no significant difference; we, thus, fit them with one function of stability whose value is 0.52 for neutral stratification.     

Biomineralization of lepidocrocite and goethite by nitrate-reducing Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria: Effect of pH, bicarbonate, phosphate, and humic acids

Fe(III) solid phases are the products of Fe(II) oxidation by Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria, but the Fe(III) phases reported to form within growth experiments are, at times, poorly crystalline and therefore difficult to identify, possibly due to the presence of ligands (e.g., phosphate, carbonate) that complex iron and disrupt iron (hydr)oxide precipitation. The scope of this study was to investigate the influences of geochemical solution conditions (pH, carbonate, phosphate, humic acids) on the Fe(II) oxidation rate and Fe(III) mineralogy. Fe(III) mineral characterization was performed using ⁵⁷Fe-Mössbauer spectroscopy and μ-X-ray diffraction after oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) within Mops-buffered cell suspensions of Acidovorax sp. BoFeN1, a nitrate-reducing, Fe(II)-oxidizing bacterium. Lepidocrocite (γ-FeOOH) (90%), which also forms after chemical oxidation of Fe(II) by dissolved O₂, and goethite (α-FeOOH) (10%) were produced at pH 7.0 in the absence of any strongly complexing ligands. Higher solution pH, increasing concentrations of carbonate species, and increasing concentrations of humic acids promoted goethite formation and caused little or no changes in Fe(II) oxidation rates. Phosphate species resulted in Fe(III) solids unidentifiable to our methods and significantly slowed Fe(II) oxidation rates. Our results suggest that Fe(III) mineralogy formed by bacterial Fe(II) oxidation is strongly influenced by solution chemistry, and the geochemical conditions studied here suggest lepidocrocite and goethite may coexist in aquatic environments where nitrate-reducing, Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria are active.     

Subsidence and uplift of Sidoarjo (East Java) due to the eruption of the Lusi mud volcano (2006–present)

Global positioning system (GPS) and satellite-based InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) measurements of the subsidence and uplift of a populated area of Sidoarjo, East Java are due to the eruption of the Lusi mud volcano (2006–present). These data are the first direct quantitative measurements of deformation due to the growth of a mud volcano edifice. The GPS data were recorded over periods of a few hours to several months and show that between June 2006 and September 2007, the earth’s surface has been subsiding at rates of 0.1–4 cm/day. Maximum rates of subsidence occurred in an area 300–400 m to the northwest of the main mud volcano vent. Horizontal displacements were 0.03–0.9 cm/day and were also towards this area. In general uplifts of up to 0.09 cm/day were recorded in areas outside of the edifice. Changes in elevation measured using satellite imagery (InSAR technique) provide regional datasets of subsidence and uplift. They confirm that during the first year a roughly circular area was undergoing sag-like subsidence centered to the northwest of the main vent and that uplift was occurring 3–4 months after the initiation of the eruption due to the movement Watukosek fault system. Subsidence occurred due to the weight of mud and man-made dams and the collapse of the overburden due to removal of mud from the subsurface. Assuming constant rates of subsidence of 4 cm/day, then in the centre of the edifice there would be up to 44 m of subsidence in 3 years, and up to 16 m in 10 years. The mud volcano is now in a self-organizing state with new fluid conduits forming as a result of the collapse. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Compositionally zoned Cl-rich amphiboles from North Dabie Shan, China: monitor of high-pressure metamorphic fluid/rock interaction processes

Amphiboles containing up to 4.2 wt.% Cl are found in felsic granulites from Yanzihe within the North Dabie area of the Dabie–Sulu ultrahigh- and high-pressure metamorphic belt in eastern China. Most amphibole grains show considerable zonations with Cl contents ranging from 0 to 4.2 wt.%. Based on their textural features, amphiboles can be divided into four generations: (1) amphibole occurring as inclusions in orthopyroxene (Am-in) with Cl contents around 3.5 wt.%; (2) amphibole forming cores of grains in the matrix (AM-I) with Cl contents between 3.0 and 4.2 wt.%; (3) amphibole with Cl contents of 0.2 to 2.5 wt.% (Am-II) occurring as hydrothermally altered parts of the original amphibole; (4) Cl-free amphibole (Am-III) usually developed at the outermost rim of the grain. Major and rare earth elements show significant variations for Am-I, Am-II and Am-III.

Different generations of amphiboles are related to different metamorphic stages of the granulite in Yanzihe, and provide a monitor for fluid/rock interactions and P–T evolution during the high-pressure metamorphism of Dabie Shan. Pressure and temperature estimates suggest that Am-in was formed during prograde metamorphism of 10 kbar and 700–800 °C; Am-I was formed under peak metamorphic conditions (20 kbar, 800–960 °C), whereas Am-II and Am-III were formed during retrograde metamorphic stages (560–770 °C and 5–7 kbar, and 520–670 °C and <5 kbar, respectively). In contrast to most previous studies, in which the earliest amphiboles to form are typically Cl-poor and later amphiboles become progressively Cl-rich, we show that the earliest amphiboles in the investigated rock are Cl-rich and later formed amphiboles are Cl-poor. The present study also demonstrates that the fluid system of the granulites in North Dabie Shan did not evolve in a simple way: while it behaved as a closed system during prograde and peak metamorphism, after the metamorphic peak it probably acted as an open system in which new fluids were introduced. The varying magnitude of Cl contents in amphiboles stresses the very local fluid control during metamorphism.     

笔石、几丁虫和虫牙反射率在热成熟度上的应用

根据中国湖北黄陵背斜周缘11条奥陶纪、志留纪地层剖面的笔石,几丁虫和虫牙反射率的研究,结合相同或邻近层位牙形石色变指数(CAI)和分散有机质成熟度的红外光谱鉴定,进一步证明:笔石、几丁虫和虫牙的反射率具有随成熟度增加而增加的特点以及各自不同的反射率径迹,因此,在不含镜质组的前泥盆纪地层中,它们可以作为热成熟度的指示。笔石具有明显的各向异性的光学特点,在平行层面所切笔石光面上测量笔石最大油浸反射率,对确定含化石母岩的成熟度最为合适。几丁虫和虫牙具有各向同性的光性特点,因而它们的光面仅显示反射率而无双反射率。笔石、几丁虫和虫牙反射率分布趋势的分析表明,可以将本区奥陶系与志留系划分为3个成熟度区。并对各区形成油气的潜在可能性进行了讨论,其结果与牙形石色变指数和有机质红外光谱分析,所证明的区域有机质成熟度分布模式基本一致。     

Rates of magma ascent and depths of magma reservoirs beneath La Palma (Canary Islands)

Peridotitic mantle xenoliths from historic and prehistoric eruptions on La Palma show many similarities. Prolonged reactions of the xenoliths with their host magmas have been used to place constraints on the magma transport system beneath the island. All xenoliths show crystalline selvages and 0.9–2.6 mm wide diffusion zones in olivine along most of their surface. Diffusion kinetics in olivine, combined with fluid inclusion barometry, document that selvages and diffusion zones formed at crustal levels within 8 to about 100 years. Some xenolith fractures lack selvages and were in contact with the host magma for less than 4 days. A multistage magma ascent is proposed: (i) peridotite wall rock was fragmented and became incorporated into the ascending magma years to decades prior to the eruption; (ii) the xenoliths were rapidly transported to, and deposited in, crustal magma reservoirs, forming selvages and diffusion zones at the xenolith rims; (iii) renewed fragmentation of the xenoliths occurred days to hours prior to eruption, possibly by decompressive strain fracturing during rapid ascent.     

Identification of Icelandic tephras from the last two millennia in the White Sea region (Vodoprovodnoe peat bog,northwestern Russia)

The generation of reliable age models for palaeoenvironmental and archaeological records in the Eurasian Arctic is often problematic when using conventional dating techniques. Tephrochronology can potentially improve the chronologies of such records and synchronise disparate sedimentary archives. However, to date, systematic tephra studies are lacking for this region. This paper presents the first cryptotephra data from the White Sea region (northwestern Russia) based on a peat core spanning the past ~1800 years. We identify seven geochemical glass populations that derive from six Icelandic volcanoes and correlate four of them to north European tephra isochrons; these include Askja ad 1875, the basaltic component of the ad 877 Landnám tephra, and tephras BTD-15 (c. ad 1750–1650) and SL-2/SB-2 (ad 803–767) from unknown eruptions of Katla and Snæfellsjökull, respectively. The remaining three populations originate from Grímsvötn, Hekla and Katla; however, their attribution to individual eruptions remains ambiguous. These findings highlight the potential to extend the Late Holocene tephrochronological framework of northern Europe to the west Eurasian Arctic. The detection of at least three basaltic tephras in the core suggests that basaltic shards can be transported over larger distances than previously known and that peatlands are well suited to preserve such components.