Uncertainty, learning and ambiguity in economic models on climate policy: some classical results and new directions

We present how uncertainty and learning are classically studied in economic models. Specifically, we study a standard expected utility model with two sequential decisions, and consider two particular cases of this model to illustrate how uncertainty and learning may affect climate policy. While uncertainty has generally a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as a general argument to increase or reduce emissions today without studying the specific intertemporal costs and benefits. Considering limits in applying the expected utility framework to climate change problems, we then consider a more recent framework with ambiguity-aversion which accounts for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions. We discuss both the impact of ambiguity-aversion on decisions and difficulties in applying such a non-expected utility framework to a dynamic context.     

Observing upper troposphere–lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite

High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data, using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3, 2006 to August 8, 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature, microwave refractivity, geopotential height and pressure with 10° latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences <0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is <0.2 K, higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature climatologies is estimated to be <0.5 K below 30 km. The recently launched Taiwan/U.S. FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC constellation of 6 RO satellites started to provide thousands of RO profiles per day, but already now the single-satellite CHAMP RO climatologies improve upon modern operational climatologies in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere and can act as absolute reference climatologies for validation of more bias-sensitive climate datasets and models.     

The magmatic plumbing system beneath El Hierro (Canary Islands): constraints from phenocrysts and naturally quenched basaltic glasses in submarine rocks

A thermobarometric and petrologic study of basanites erupted from young volcanic cones along the submarine portions of the three El Hierro rift zones (NE-Rift, NW-Rift and S-Ridge) has been performed to reconstruct magma plumbing and storage beneath the island. Mineral-melt thermobarometry applied to naturally quenched glass and clinopyroxene rims yields pressures ranging from 350 to 1070 MPa with about 80% of the calculated pressures being in the range of 600–800 MPa. This corresponds to a depth range of 19–26 km, implying that the main level of final crystal fractionation is within the uppermost mantle. No systematic dependence between sample locality and fractionation pressures could be observed. Olivine and clinopyroxene crystals in the rocks are complexly zoned and have, on an inter-sample as well as on an intra-sample scale, highly variable core and rim compositions. This can best be explained by mixing of multiply saturated (olivine, magnetite, clinopyroxene, ilmenite), moderately evolved magmas with more mafic magmas being either only saturated with olivine + spinel or with olivine + spinel + clinopyroxene. The inter-sample differences indicate derivation from small, isolated magma chambers which have undergone distinct fractionation and mixing histories. This is in contrast to oceanic intraplate volcanoes situated on plumes with high melt supply rates, e.g. Kilauea Volcano (Hawaii), where magma is mainly transported through a central conduit system and stored in a shallow magma chamber prior to injection into the rift zones. The plumbing system beneath El Hierro rather resembles the magma storage systems beneath, e.g. Madeira or La Palma, indicating that small, intermittent magma chambers might be a common feature of oceanic islands fed by plumes with relatively low fluxes, which results in only limited and periodic magma supply.     

Soil properties controlling Zn speciation and fractionation in contaminated soils

We determined the speciation of Zn in 49 field soils differing widely in pH (4.1–7.7) and total Zn content (251–30,090 mg/kg) by using extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. All soils had been contaminated since several decades by inputs of aqueous Zn with runoff-water from galvanized power line towers. Pedogenic Zn species identified by EXAFS spectroscopy included Zn in hydroxy-interlayered minerals (Zn-HIM), Zn-rich phyllosilicates, Zn-layered double hydroxide (Zn-LDH), hydrozincite, and octahedrally and tetrahedrally coordinated sorbed or complexed Zn. Zn-HIM was only observed in (mostly acidic) soils containing less than 2000 mg/kg of Zn, reflecting the high affinity but limited sorption capacity of HIM. Zn-bearing precipitates, such as Zn-LDH and Zn-rich trioctahedral phyllosilicates, became more dominant with increasing pH and increasing total Zn content relative to available adsorption sites. Zn-LDH was the most abundant Zn-precipitate and was detected in soils with pH > 5.2. Zn-rich phyllosilicates were detected even at lower soil pH, but were generally less abundant than Zn-LDH. Hydrozincite was only identified in two calcareous soils with extremely high Zn contents. In addition to Zn-LDH, large amounts of Zn in highly contaminated soils were mainly accumulated as sorbed/complexed Zn in tetrahedral coordination. Soils grouped according to their Zn speciation inferred from EXAFS spectroscopy mainly differed with respect to soil pH and total Zn content. Clear differences were observed with respect to Zn fractionation by sequential extraction: From Zn-HIM containing soils, most of the total Zn was recovered in the exchangeable and the most recalcitrant fractions. In contrast, from soils containing the highest percentage of Zn-precipitates, Zn was mainly extracted in intermediate extraction steps. The results of this study demonstrate that soil pH and Zn contamination level relative to available adsorption sites are the most important factors controlling the formation of pedogenic Zn-species in aerobic soils and, consequently, Zn fractionation by sequential extraction.     

The importance of melt extraction for tracing mantle heterogeneity

Numerous isotope and trace element studies of mantle rocks and oceanic basalts show that the Earth’s mantle is heterogeneous. The isotopic variability in oceanic basalts indicates that most mantle sources consist of complex assemblages of two or more components with isolated long-term chemical evolution, on both global and local scales. The range in isotope and highly incompatible element ratios observed in oceanic basalts is commonly assumed to directly reflect that of their mantle sources. Accordingly, the end-points of isotope arrays are taken to represent the isotopic composition of the different components in the underlying mantle, which is then used to deduce the origin of mantle heterogeneity. Here, a melting model for heterogeneous mantle sources is presented that investigates how and to what extent isotope and trace element signatures are conveyed from source to melt. We model melting of a pyroxenite-bearing peridotite using recent experimental constrains for melting and partitioning of pyroxenite and peridotite. Identification of specific pyroxenite melting signatures allows finger-printing of pyroxenite melts and confirm the importance of lithological heterogeneity in the Earth’s mantle. The model results and the comparison of the calculated and observed trace element-isotope systematics in selected MORB and OIB suites (e.g. from the East Pacific Rise, Iceland, Tristan da Cunha, Gough and St.Helena) further show that factors such as the relative abundance of different source components, their difference in solidus temperature, and especially the extent, style and depth range of melt aggregation fundamentally influence the relationship between key trace element and isotope ratios (e.g. Ba/Th, La/Nb, Sr/Nd, La/Sm, Sm/Yb, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd). The reason for this is that any heterogeneity present in the mantle is averaged or, depending on the effectiveness of the melt mixing process, even homogenized during melting and melt extraction. Hence to what degree mantle heterogeneity is reflected in the erupted melts is not only a function of source and melting-induced variability. It also depends on the extent of mixing during melting and melt extraction and thus strongly on the relative incompatibility of the elements considered. The observed trace element variation in erupted melts can be greater or smaller than that of their mantle sources, depending on the incompatibility of the elements investigated. The isotopic variability in erupted melts, on the other hand, is generally smaller than that of their mantle source. Melt mixing during melt extraction consequently has an important influence on the relative extent of variation, and hence the degree of correlation between the isotope and trace element ratios. Overall fewer correlations between trace element and isotope ratios are expected whenever melts are extracted from a restricted depth range, as is the case for ocean island basalts, than for cases where melts are extracted over a larger depth interval (mid ocean ridges and especially ridge centered hotspots like Iceland). While the isotopic composition of the most enriched melts may correspond closely to those of the enriched source component, even the most depleted mid ocean ridge basalts are likely to underestimate the isotopic depletion of the depleted mantle component. These observations imply that using the chemical and isotopic range observed in oceanic basalts as directly representative of that in the corresponding mantle source can be misleading, since this assumption is strictly true only for homogeneous mantle sources. In addition to identifying source or partitioning-related differences in melts from different mantle sources, inferring the true composition, origin, and distribution of heterogeneous components in the Earth’s mantle therefore requires detailed knowledge about the mechanisms of melting and melt mixing during the melt extraction process. Only if these processes and their influence on the isotope-trace element relationship are understood, can the composition and origin of the different source components, and thus mantle heterogeneity, be accurately constrained.     

An estimate of the glacier ice volume in the Swiss Alps

Changes in glacier volume are important for questions linked to sea-level rise, water resource management, and tourism industry. With the ongoing climate warming, the retreat of mountain glaciers is a major concern. Predictions of glacier changes, necessarily need the present ice volume as initial condition, and for transient modelling, the ice thickness distribution has to be known. In this paper, a method based on mass conservation and principles of ice flow dynamics is applied to 62 glaciers located in the Swiss Alps for estimating their ice thickness distribution. All available direct ice thickness measurements are integrated. The ice volumes are referenced to the year 1999 by means of a mass balance time series. The results are used to calibrate a volume–area scaling relation, and the coefficients obtained show good agreement with values reported in the literature. We estimate the total ice volume present in the Swiss Alps in the year 1999 to be 74 ± 9 km³. About 12% of this volume was lost between 1999 and 2008, whereas the extraordinarily warm summer 2003 caused a volume loss of about 3.5%.     

Multi-spacecraft Observations of CIR-Associated Ion Increases During the Ulysses 2007 Ecliptic Crossing

The period between 21 June and 8 October, 2007 (Carrington rotations 2058 to 2061), comprising the Ulysses ecliptic plane crossing, was characterized by low solar activity. Excluding the small solar energetic particle events observed during July, the ion increases observed in the inner heliosphere between 100?keV/n and 10?MeV/n were associated with Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs). In this work, we investigate CIR-related ion increases using multipoint observations from Ulysses, ACE, and the twin STEREO spacecraft. The ballistic backmapping technique has been used to correlate in situ observations of these spacecraft and remote-sensing observations of coronal holes. Although the radial, longitudinal and latitudinal separation of the spacecraft (except Ulysses) are relatively small, we find discrepancies when a detailed comparison of narrow structures like stream interfaces and CIR-associated shocks is performed. Therefore we concentrate on the two CIR events from day 5 to day 10 of August 2007 and from day 25 to day 31 of August 2007, which lend themselves to a more undisturbed comparison. Using the multi-spacecraft measurements we could determine a radial gradient of 230±30% AU^?1, which is consistent with previous results by van Hollebeke et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 83, 4723, 1978) of ～?350% AU^?1 using Helios and Pioneer data.

     

Relative sea level changes during the Holocene in the Sisimiut area,south‐western Greenland

Holocene relative sea level (RSL) changes have been investigated by analysing and dating isolation sequences from five lakes near Sisimiut in south‐western Greenland. The transitions between marine and lacustrine sediments were determined from elemental analyses and analyses of macroscopic plant and animal remains. Radiocarbon dating was used to provide minimum ages for the transitions and to construct a RSL curve. Dating of a shell of the marine bivalve Macoma balthica indicates that deglaciation of the lowlands occurred in the early Holocene, at around 10 900 cal a BP. The RSL curve shows initial rapid regression from the marine limit at around 140 m, implying strong glacio‐isostatic rebound. We suggest that the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet was located at the shelf break during the Last Glacial Maximum. Frequent remains of the ostracode Sarcypridopsis aculeata, which is a thermophilous brackish water species that is unknown from the extant fauna of Greenland, in one of the basins around 8500 cal a BP may mark the beginning of the Holocene thermal maximum in the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

STABILITY OF GRAVEL BED RIVERS BASED ON SIEVE ANALYSIS DATA

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On wavelet analysis of nonstationary turbulence

Wavelets are new tools for turbulence analysis that are yielding important insights into boundary-layer processes. Wavelet analysis, however, has some as yet undiscussed limitations: failure to recognize these can lead to misinterpretation of wavelet analysis results. Here we discuss some limitations of wavelet analysis when applied to nonstationary turbulence. Our main point is that the analysis wavelet must be carefully matched to the phenomenon of interest, because wavelet coefficients obscure significant information in the signal being analyzed. For example, a wavelet that is a second-difference operator can provide no information on the linear trend in a turbulence signal. Wavelet analysis also yields no meaningful information about nonlinear behavior in a signal — contrary to claims in the literature — because, at any instant, a wavelet is a single-scale operator, while nonlinearity involves instantaneous interactions among many scales.