A Spectral Analysis Based Methodology to Detect Climatological Influences on Daily Urban Water Demand

Urban water demand (UWD) is highly dependent on interacting natural and socio-economic factors, and thus a wide range of data analysis and forecasting methods are required to fully understand the issue. This study applies, for the first time, the continuous wavelet transform to determine changes in the temporal pattern of UWD and its potential meteorological drivers for three major Canadian cities: Calgary, Montreal, and Ottawa. This analysis is complemented by Fourier and cross-spectral analysis to determine inter-relationships and the significance of the patterns detected. The results show that the annual (365 days) cycle provides the most consistent and significant relationship between UWD and meteorological drivers. Wavelet analysis shows that UWD is only sensitive to air temperature in the summer months when mean daily temperatures are greater than 10 to 12 °C. For the three cities studied, the UWD increases by between 10 ML (Montreal) and 50 ML (Calgary) per day with every 1 °C increase in air temperature. In an area with low precipitation (Calgary), there is an inverse relationship between UWD and precipitation during summer months. Wavelet transform and Fourier analysis also detected a 7-day cycle in UWD, particularly in the more industrialized city of Montreal, which is related to the working week. In general, applying the season dependent linear relationships between UWD and temperature is suggested as perhaps being more appropriate and potentially successful for forecasting, rather than continuous complex nonlinear algorithms that are designed to explain variability in the entire UWD record.     

Evaluation of Combined Direct-Push Methods Used for Aquifer Model Generation

Most established methods to characterize aquifer structure and hydraulic conductivities of hydrostratigraphical units are not capable of delivering sufficient information in the spatial resolution that is desired for sophisticated numerical contaminant transport modeling and adapted remediation design. With hydraulic investigation methods based on the direct-push (DP) technology such as DP slug tests, DP injection logging, and the hydraulic profiling tool, it is possible to rapidly delineate hydrogeological structures and estimate their hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers without the need for wells. A combined application of these tools was used for the investigation of a contaminated German refinery site and for the setup of hydraulic aquifer models. The quality of DP investigation and the models was evaluated by comparisons of tracer transport simulations using these models and measured breakthroughs of two natural gradient tracer tests. Model scenarios considering the information of all tools together showed good reproduction of the measured breakthroughs, indicating the suitability of the approach and a minor impact of potential technical limitations. Using the DP slug tests alone yielded significantly higher deviations for the determined hydraulic conductivities compared to considering two or three of the tools. Realistic aquifer models developed on basis of such combined DP investigation approaches can help optimize remediation concepts or identify flow regimes for aquifers with a complex structure.     

Development of a seismic damage and loss scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece

The methodologies used in Greece for estimating direct losses in both reinforced concrete (R/C) and masonry buildings (also including monuments) are summarised, the critical issue of data collection is addressed, and practical solutions that have been tried are discussed. The development of a seismic risk scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki is then presented and some key results are given, including the expected geographical distribution of building damage (due to the scenario earthquake) in the municipality of Thessaloniki; damage is described both in structural and in economic terms.     

Improvement of Global Hydrological Models Using GRACE Data

After about 6 years of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite mission operation, an unprecedented global data set on the spatio-temporal variations of the Earth’s water storage is available. The data allow for a better understanding of the water cycle at the global scale and for large river basins. This review summarizes the experiences that have been made when comparing GRACE data with simulation results of global hydrological models and it points out the prerequisites and perspectives for model improvements by combination with GRACE data. When evaluated qualitatively at the global scale, water storage variations on the continents from GRACE agreed reasonably well with model predictions in terms of their general seasonal dynamics and continental-scale spatial patterns. Differences in amplitudes and phases of water storage dynamics revealed in more detailed analyses were mainly attributed to deficiencies in the meteorological model forcing data, to missing water storage compartments in the model, but also to limitations and errors of the GRACE data. Studies that transformed previously identified model deficiencies into adequate modifications of the model structure or parameters are still rare. Prerequisites for a comprehensive improvement of large-scale hydrological models are in particular the consistency of GRACE observation and model variables in terms of filtering, reliable error estimates, and a full assessment of the water balance. Using improvements in GRACE processing techniques, complementary observation data, multi-model evaluations and advanced methods of multi-objective calibration and data assimilation, considerable progress in large-scale hydrological modelling by integration of GRACE data can be expected.     

Investigating parabolic and nebkha dune formation using a cellular automaton modelling approach

Vegetation plays an important role in shaping the morphology of aeolian dune landscapes in coastal and semi‐arid environments, where ecogeomorphic interactions are complex and not well quantified. We present a Discrete ECogeomorphic Aeolian Landscape model (DECAL) capable of simulating realistic looking vegetated dune forms, permitting exploration of relationships between ecological and morphological processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The cellular automaton algorithm applies three simple rules that lead to self‐organization of complex dune environments, including nebkhas with distinctive deposition tails that form in association with mesquite‐type shrubs, and hairpin (long‐walled) parabolic dunes with trailing ridges that evolve from blowouts in association with vegetation succession. Changing the conditions of simulations produces differing landscapes that conform qualitatively to observations of real‐world dunes. The model mimics the response of the morphology to changes in sediment supply, vegetation distribution, density and growth characteristics, as well as initial disturbances. The introduction of vegetation into the model links spatial and temporal scales, previously dimensionless in bare‐sand cellular automata. Grid resolutions coarser than the representative size of the modelled vegetation elements yield similar morphologies, but when cell size is reduced to much smaller dimensions, the resultant landscape evolution is dramatically different. The model furthermore demonstrates that the relative response characteristics of the multiple vegetation types and their mutual feedback with geomorphological processes impart a significant influence on landscape equilibria, suggesting that vegetation induces a characteristic length scale in aeolian environments. This simple vegetated dune model illustrates the power and versatility of a cellular automaton approach for exploring the effects of interactions between ecology and geomorphology in complex earth surface systems. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation patterns and diversity along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of northern Oman

Little is known about the effects of grazing on vegetation composition on the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this study therefore was to analyse the vegetation response to environmental conditions of open woodlands along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of Oman. The species composition, vegetation structure, grazing damage and several environmental variables were investigated for 62 samples using a nested plot design. Classification analysis and a Canonical Variate Analysis (CVA) were used to define vegetation types and to identify underlying environmental gradients. The relationship between environmental variables and diversity was analysed using correlation coefficients and a main-effects ANOVA. The plant species richness followed a unimodal distribution along the altitudinal gradient with the highest number of species at the intermediate altitudinal belt. The cluster analysis led to five vegetation groups: The Sideroxylon mascatense–Dodonaea viscosa group on grazed and the Olea europaea–Fingerhuthia africana group on ungrazed plateau sites at 2000 m a.s.l., the Ziziphus spina-christi–Nerium oleander group at wadi sites and the Moringa peregrina–Pteropyrum scoparium group at 1200 m a.s.l, and the Acacia gerrardii–Leucas inflata group at 1700 m a.s.l. The CVA indicated a clear distinction of the groups obtained by the agglomerative cluster analysis. The landform, altitude and grazing intensity were found to be the most important variables distinguishing between clusters. Overgrazing of the studied rangeland is an increasing environmental problem, whereas the plant composition at ungrazed sites pointed to a relatively fast and high regeneration potential of the local vegetation.     

Seismic fragility curves for greek bridges: methodology and case studies

This study focusses on the estimation of seismic fragility curves for all common bridge types found in modern greek motorways. At first a classification scheme is developed in order to classify the existing bridges into a sufficient number of classes. A total of 11 representative bridge classes resulted, based on the type of piers, deck, and pier-to-deck connection. Then an analytical methodology for deriving fragility curves is proposed and applied to the representative bridge models. This procedure is based on pushover analysis of the entire bridge and definition of damage states in terms of parameters of the bridge pushover curves. The procedure differentiates the way of defining damage according to the seismic energy dissipation mechanism in each bridge, i.e. bridges with yielding piers of the column type and bridges with bearings (with or without seismic links) and non-yielding piers of the wall type. The activation of the abutment-backfill system due to closure of the gap between the deck and the abutments is also taken into account. The derived fragility curves are subjected to a first calibration against empirical curves based on damage data from the US and Japan.     

Multistage Variscan magmatism in the central Tauern Window (Austria) unveiled by U/Pb SHRIMP zircon data

U/Pb SHRIMP ages of nine Variscan leucocratic orthogneisses from the central Tauern Window (Austria) reveal three distinct pulses of magmatism in Early Carboniferous (Visean), Late Carboniferous (Stephanian) and Early Permian, each involving granitoid intrusions and a contemporaneous opening of volcano-sedimentary basins. A similar relationship has been reported for the Carboniferous parts of the basement of the Alps further to the west, e.g. the “External massifs” in Switzerland. After the intrusion of subduction-related, volcanic-arc granitoids (374?±?10?Ma; Zwölferkogel gneiss), collisional intrusive-granitic, anatectic and extrusive-rhyolitic/dacitic rocks were produced over a short interval at ca. 340?Ma (Augengneiss of Felbertauern: 340?±?4?Ma, Hochweißenfeld gneiss: 342?± 5?Ma, Falkenbachlappen gneiss: 343?±?6?Ma). This Early Carboniferous magmatism, which produced relatively small volumes of melt, can be attributed to the amalgamation of the Gondwana-derived “Tauern Window” terrane with Laurussia–Avalonia. Probably due to the oblique nature of the collision, transtensional phenomena (i.e. volcano-sedimentary troughs and high-level intrusives) and transpressional regimes (i.e. regional metamorphism and stacked nappes with anatexis next to thrust planes) evolved contemporaneously. The magmas are mainly of the high-K I-type and may have been generated during a short phase of decompressional melting of lithospheric mantle and lower crustal sources. In the Late Carboniferous, a second pulse of magmatism occurred, producing batholiths of calc-alkaline I-type granitoids (e.g. Venediger tonalite: 296?±?4?Ma) and minor coeval bodies of felsic and intermediate volcanics (Heuschartenkopf gneiss: 299?±?4?Ma, Peitingalm gneiss: 300?±?5?Ma). Prior to this magmatism, several kilometres of upper crust must have been eroded, because volcano-sedimentary sequences hosting the Heu- schartenkopf and Peitingalm gneisses rest unconformably on 340-Ma-old granitoids. The youngest (Permian) period of magma generation contains the intrusion of the S-type Granatspitz Central Gneiss at 271?±?4?Ma and the extrusion of the rhyolitic Schönbachwald gneiss protolith at 279?±?9?Ma. These magmatic rocks may have been associated with local extension along continental wrench zones through the Variscan orogenic crust or with a Permian rifting event. The Permian and the above-mentioned Late Carboniferous volcano-sedimentary sequences were probably deposited in intra-continental graben structures, which survived post-Variscan uplift and Alpine compressional tectonics.     

A Concise History of Dutch River Floods

Based on a brief account of 1,000 years of river floods and flood management in the Dutch Rhine delta, it is argued that vulnerability to river floods depends on the complex interaction of economics, institutions, politics and, to a limited extent, climate. Response functions and thresholds for climate change impacts should take this complexity into account rather than assuming society to be constant or evolving in a straightforward manner.     

Did the 7/9/1999 M5.9 Athens Earthquake Come with a Warning?

Prior to the 7/9/1999 M_S = 5.9 Athens earthquake, regional seismicity has exhibited a power-law increase, of the form = K+A(t_c - t)ⁿ, where is estimated using an expression log = cM + d and t_c is the time of the culminating event. Such changes appeared after the 17/8/1999 M7.4 Izmit event. We quantified the performance of the power law vs. the null hypothesis of constant seismic release rates, by defining the curvature C as the ratio of the power law fit RMS/linear fit RMS, so that the smaller C is, the better the power law behaviour. By mapping C, we have established a critical radius of 110 km and observed that the region of correlated accelerating seismic release extended from the N. Aegean, through Euboea and Attica to the SW Peloponnese. A few days prior to the Athens event, min(C) was centred at the epicentral area and numerical simulation yielded t_c = 1999.676 and predicted M_S = 5.77. Seismicity rates returned to normal (quasi-constant) after the Athens event. We interpret this effect as critical point behaviour, following remote excitation of a broad area by stress redistribution due to the Izmit event which, at Athens, has triggered `premature' failure of a fault nearing its load bearing capacity. If this is correct, we have documented a case of remote earthquake triggering by another earthquake, as well as insight into the mechanisms producing it. As a corollary, we note that a large event may beget another large event in its broader region of interaction, which may be preceded by characteristic precursory seismicity changes.