Quantifying the Risk Posed by Potential Earth Impacts

Predictions of future potential Earth impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs) have become commonplace in recent years, and the rate of these detections is likely to accelerate as asteroid survey efforts continue to mature. In order to conveniently compare and categorize the numerous potential impact solutions being discovered we propose a new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms. To this end, we measure each event in two ways, first without any consideration of the event's time proximity or its significance relative to the so-called background threat, and then in the context of the expected risk from other objects over the intervening years until the impact. This approach is designed principally to facilitate communication among astronomers, and it is not intended for public communication of impact risks. The scale characterizes impacts across all impact energies, probabilities and dates, and it is useful, in particular, when dealing with those cases which fall below the threshold of public interest. The scale also reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation. In this paper we describe the metrics introduced, and we give numerous examples of their application. This enables us to establish in rough terms the levels at which events become interesting to various parties.     

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

Climate Dynamics - The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an...     

Linking subaerial erosion with submarine geomorphology in the western Ionian Sea (south of the Messina Strait), Italy

Sediment supplied by continental sources is commonly suspected to have exerted a strong influence on the development of canyons and other morphological features on the continental slopes, but rarely is the sediment supply known sufficiently quantitatively to test this link. Here, we outline an area where offshore morphology, in the western Ionian Sea, may be linked to estimated sediment fluxes produced by subaerial erosion in NE Sicily and SW Calabria. Shelves in this area are narrow (<1 km), and the bathymetry shows that rivers and adjacent submarine channels are almost directly connected with each other. Integrated topographic analyses were performed on a merged digital elevation model (DEM) of ASTER data for subaerial topography and multibeam sonar data for submarine bathymetry. Spatial variations in sediment fluxes from onshore erosion were assessed using a variety of methods, namely: long‐term sediment flux from Pleistocene uplift rates, decadal sediment flux from landslide occurrences and published long‐term exhumation rates from ¹⁰Be cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. Submarine channels associated with rivers delivering larger sediment fluxes have broad channels, high relief and smooth concave‐upward longitudinal profiles. Conversely, submarine channels that lie offshore small‐flux rivers have straight longitudinal profiles, low relief and steep gradients. Where river catchments supply a greater sediment flux offshore, shelves tend to be wider (ca. 400 m) and submarine channels have gentler gradients. In contrast, where catchments supply less sediment flux, shelves are narrow (250–300 m) and offshore channel gradients are steeper. The variation of submarine morphology with tectonic uplift rate was also studied, but we find that, unlike onshore terrains where tectonics is commonly an important factor influencing channel morphology, in the submarine landscapes, sediment flux appears to dominate here.     

Cretaceous evolution of the Andean margin between 36°S and 40°S latitude through a multi‐proxy provenance analysis of Neuquén Basin strata (Argentina)

During the Cretaceous, the Neuquén Basin transitioned from an extensional back‐arc to a retroarc foreland basin. We present a multi‐proxy provenance study of Aptian to Santonian (125–84 Ma) continental sedimentary rocks preserved in the Neuquén Basin used to resolve changes of sediment drainage pattern in response to the change in tectonic regime. Sandstone petrology and U–Pb detrital zircon geochronology constrain the source units delivering detritus to the basin; apatite U–Pb and fission track dating further resolve provenance and determine the age and patterns of exhumation of the source rocks. Sandstone provenance records a sharp change from a mixed orogenic source during Aptian time (ca. 125 Ma), to a magmatic arc provenance in the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma). We interpret this provenance change as the result of the drainage pattern reorganisation from divergent to convergent caused by tectonic basin inversion. During this inversion and early stages of contraction, a transient phase of uplift and basin erosion, possibly due to continental buckling, caused the pre‐Cenomanian unconformity dividing the Lower from Upper Cretaceous strata in the Neuquén Basin. This phase was followed by the development of a retroarc foreland basin characterised by a volcanic arc sediment provenance progressively shifting to a mixed continental basement provenance during Turonian‐Santonian (90–84). According to multi‐proxy provenance data and lag times derived from apatite fission track analysis, this trend is the result of a rapidly exhuming source within the Cordillera to the west, in response to active compressional tectonics along the western margin of South America, coupled with the increasing contribution of material from the stable craton to the east; this contribution is thought to be the result of the weak uplift and exhumation of the foreland due to eastward migration of the forebulge.     

Characterisation and diachronous initiation of coarse clastic deposition in the Magallanes–Austral foreland basin,Patagonian Andes

Magallanes–Austral Basin (MAB) fill is preserved along a >1000 km north–south trending outcrop belt in the southern Patagonia region of Argentina and Chile. Although the stratigraphic evolution of the MAB has been well documented in the Chilean sector (referred to as the Magallanes Basin), its northern terminus in southern Argentina (Austral Basin) is poorly constrained. We present new stratigraphic and geochronologic analyses of the early basin fill (Aptian–Turonian) from the Argentine sector (49–51°S) of the MAB to document spatial variability in stratigraphy and timing of deposition during the initial stages of basin evolution. The initiation of the retroarc foreland basin fill is marked by the transition from mudstone to coarse‐clastic deposition, which is characterised by the consistent presence of sandstone beds > ca. 20 cm thick interpreted to represent sediment gravity flows deposited in a submarine fan system. Depositional environments within the early fill of the basin range from lower to upper deep‐water fan settings as well as previously undocumented slope deposits. These facies are present as far north as El Chalten, Argentina (ca. 49°S), indicating that facies‐equivalent rocks can be traced along‐strike for at least 5 degrees of latitude, based on correlation with strata as far south as the Cordillera Darwin (ca. 54°S). Eight new U‐Pb zircon ages from ash beds reveal an overall southward younging trend in the initiation of coarse clastic deposition. Inferred depositional ages range from ca. 115 ± 1.9 Ma in the northernmost study area to not older than 92 ± 1 Ma and 89 ± 1.5 Ma in the central and southern sectors respectively. The apparent diachronous delivery of coarse detritus into the basin may reflect (1) gradual southward progradation of a deep‐water fan system from a northerly point source and/or (2) orogen‐parallel variations in the timing and magnitude of thrust‐belt deformation and erosion that provided more local sources for sediment delivery.     

“A Mirror and a Lamp”: The Role of Power in the Rural Landscape Trajectory of the Ovens Region of Australia

Power relationships structure discourse and its influence on policy and rural land use planning, but little research has examined how this might be observed in the dynamics of rural landscape transition. In a qualitative case study of the Ovens catchment, Victoria, Australia, discursive power is observed through sites of tension between informant interpretations of past, present, and future landscapes and contemporary local decision making. Three main tensions and an observation emerged that suggest discourse and power can be observed through the transfer and support of social memory narratives. We conclude that the identification of tensions between stakeholder perceptions of the past, present, and future of their landscape; awareness of the influence of those interpretations on current decision making; and attention to social memory narratives can provide invaluable insights for those seeking to understand local relationships of power.     

Sulfide oxidation and distribution of metals near abandoned copper mines in coastal environments,Prince William Sound,Alaska, USA

The oxidation of sulfide-rich rocks, mostly leftover debris from Cu mining in the early 20th century, is contributing to metal contamination of local coastal environments in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Analyses of sulfide, water, sediment, precipitate and biological samples from the Beatson, Ellamar, and Threeman mine sites show that acidic surface waters generated from sulfide weathering are pathways for redistribution of environmentally important elements into and beyond the intertidal zone at each site. Volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits composed of pyrrhotite and (or) pyrite + chalcopyrite + sphalerite with subordinate galena, arsenopyrite, and cobaltite represent potent sources of Cu, Zn, Pb, As, Co, Cd, and Hg. The resistance to oxidation among the major sulfides increases in the order pyrrhotite ? sphalerite < chalcopyrite ? pyrite; thus, pyrrhotite-rich rocks are typically more oxidized than those dominated by pyrite. The pervasive alteration of pyrrhotite begins with rim replacement by marcasite followed by replacement of the core by sulfur, Fe sulfate, and Fe–Al sulfate. The oxi dation of chalcopyrite and pyrite involves an encroachment by colloform Fe oxyhydroxides at grain margins and along crosscutting cracks that gradually consumes the entire grain. The complete oxidation of sulfide-rich samples results in a porous aggregate of goethite, lepidocrocite and amorphous Fe-oxyhydroxide enclosing hydrothermal and sedimentary silicates. An inverse correlation between pH and metal concentrations is evident in water data from all three sites. Among all waters sampled, pore waters from Ellamar beach gravels have the lowest pH (∼3) and highest concentrations of base metals (to ∼25,000 μg/L), which result from oxidation of abundant sulfide-rich debris in the sediment. High levels of dissolved Hg (to 4100 ng/L) in the pore waters probably result from oxidation of sphalerite-rich rocks. The low-pH and high concentrations of dissolved Fe, Al, and SO₄ are conducive to precipitation of interstitial jarosite in the intertidal gravels. Although pore waters from the intertidal zone at the Threeman mine site have circumneutral pH values, small amounts of dissolved Fe²⁺ in the pore waters are oxidized during mixing with seawater, resulting in precipitation of Fe-oxyhydroxide flocs along the beach–seawater interface. At the Beatson site, surface waters funneled through the underground mine workings and discharged across the waste dumps have near-neutral pH (6.7–7.3) and a relatively small base-metal load; however, these streams probably play a role in the physical transport of metalliferous particulates into intertidal and offshore areas during storm events. Somewhat more acidic fluids, to pH 5.3, occur in stagnant seeps and small streams emerging from the Beatson waste dumps. Amorphous Fe precipitates in stagnant waters at Beatson have high Cu (5.2 wt%) and Zn (2.3 wt%) concentrations that probably reflect adsorption onto the extremely high surface area of colloidal particles. Conversely, crystalline precipitates composed of ferrihydrite and schwertmannite that formed in the active flow of small streams have lower metal contents, which are attributed to their smaller surface area and, therefore, fewer reactive sorption sites. Seeps containing precipitates with high metal contents may contribute contaminants to the marine environment during storm-induced periods of high runoff. Preliminary chemical data for mussels (Mytilus edulis) collected from Beatson, Ellamar, and Threeman indicate that bioaccumulation of base metals is occurring in the marine environment at all three sites.     

Ecological Signatures of Anthropogenically Altered Tidal Exchange in Estuarine Ecosystems

One of the most conspicuous anthropogenic disturbances to estuaries worldwide has been the alteration of freshwater and tidal influence through the construction of water control structures (dikes, tide gates, culverts). Few studies have rigorously compared the responses of differing groups of organisms that serve as contrasting conservation targets to such anthropogenic disturbances in estuarine ecosystems. Elkhorn Slough in central California includes a spectrum of tidally restricted habitats behind water control structures and habitats experiencing full tidal exchange. To assess community composition for several different taxa in habitats with varying tidal exchange, we employed a variety of field approaches and synthesized results from several different studies. Overall, we found that communities at sites with moderately restricted tidal exchange were fairly similar to those with full tidal exchange, but those with extremely restricted tidal exchange were markedly different from other categories. These differences in community composition are likely the result of several factors, including restricted movement due to physical barriers, differences in water quality characteristics, and differences in habitat structure. Indeed, in this study, we found that water quality characteristics strongly vary with tidal restriction and may strongly influence patterns of species presence or absence. We also found that different conservation targets showed contrasting responses to variation in tidal exchange. Full exchange appears to favor native oysters, commercially valuable flatfish, migratory shorebirds, and site-level biodiversity. Minimal tidal exchange due to water control structures supports a suite of estuarine endemics (including the tidewater goby and California brackish snail) not represented elsewhere and minimizes invasions by non-native marine species. Altogether, our results suggest that total estuary-wide biodiversity may be enhanced with a mosaic of tidal exchange regimes.     

Plasma tail of comet Bradfield 1987s during 1987 October 19–20

A large scale disturbance (LSD) in plasma tail of comet Bradfield 1987s has been observed in some wide field photographs taken in the days 1987 October 19–20. A conspicuous plasma cloud moving along the tail axis is also visible. Wind-shock analysis shows that the LSD can be explained as the effect of a strong variation in the ecliptical polar component of solar wind speed. An analysis of solar activity suggests that the possible cause of the LSD is a solar burst occurred on 1987 October 16.4 (UT). Correlated geomagnetic effects are found on October 25–26 using corotation method. The plasma cloud seems to have a mean speed of 280 km s^–1.