What drives policy change for REDD+? A qualitative comparative analysis of the interplay between institutional and policy arena factors

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has emerged as a promising climate change mitigation mechanism in developing countries. In order to identify the enabling conditions for achieving progress in the implementation of an effective, efficient and equitable REDD+, this paper examines national policy settings in a comparative analysis across 13 countries with a focus on both institutional context and the actual setting of the policy arena. The evaluation of REDD+ revealed that countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America are showing some progress, but some face backlashes in realizing the necessary transformational change to tackle deforestation and forest degradation. A Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) undertaken as part of the research project showed two enabling institutional configurations facilitating progress: (1) the presence of already initiated policy change; and (2) scarcity of forest resources combined with an absence of any effective forestry framework and policies. When these were analysed alongside policy arena conditions, the paper finds that the presence of powerful transformational coalitions combined with strong ownership and leadership, and performance-based funding, can both work as a strong incentive for achieving REDD+ goals.

Key policy insights

• The positive push of already existing policy change, or the negative stress of resource scarcity together with lack of effective policies, represents institutional conditions that can support REDD+ progress.

• Progress also requires the presence of powerful transformational coalitions and strong ownership and leadership. In the absence of these internal drivers, performance-based funding can work as a strong incentive.

• When comparing three assessments (2012, 2014, 2016) of REDD+ enabling conditions, some progress in establishing processes of change can be observed over time; however, the overall fluctuation in progress of most countries reveals the difficulty in changing the deforestation trajectory away from business as usual.

     

Biomonitoring of Atmospheric Heavy Metal Deposition by Mosses in the Vicinity of Industrial Sites

At four industrial regions, heavy metal concentrations and calculated depositions were investigated by sampling and analysing mosses. In each region, a special spatial pattern of heavy metal concentrations was detected, reflecting the industrial processes. Metals most likely originating from the industrial sites showed an exponential decrease of concentrations and depositions with increasing distance from the pollution source. The exponential deposition pattern was in some cases modified by a series of natural factors, like the main direction of winds or orographic conditions. The distance at which deposition dropped to background values was up to 20 km. Beside the fact that the moss-metho is a useful tool for deposition measurement in the vicinity of stationary sources, some improvements for using this method are discussed, highlighting factors such as a proper calculation of deposition from concentrations, or the better knowledge of correlations between heavy metal concentrations in mosses and effects on human health.     

Land tenure and REDD+: The good,the bad and the ugly

A number of international donors, national governments and project proponents have begun to lay the groundwork for REDD+, but tenure insecurity – including the potential risks of land grabbing by outsiders and loss of local user rights to forests and forest land – is one of the main reasons that many indigenous and other local peoples have publicly opposed it. Under what conditions is REDD+ a threat to local rights, and under what conditions does it present an opportunity? This article explores these issues based on available data from a global comparative study on REDD+, led by the Center for International Forestry Research, which is studying national policies and processes in 12 countries and 23 REDD+ projects in 6 countries. The article analyses how tenure concerns are being addressed at both national and project level in emerging REDD+ programs. The findings suggest that in most cases REDD+ has clearly provided some new opportunities for securing local tenure rights, but that piecemeal interventions by project proponents at the local level are insufficient in the absence of broader, national programs for land tenure reform. The potential for substantial changes in the status quo appear unlikely, though Brazil – the only one with such a national land tenure reform program – offers useful insights. Land tenure reform – the recognition of customary rights in particular – and a serious commitment to REDD+ both challenge the deep-rooted economic and political interests of ‘business as usual’.     

Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to an Observed Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly

Abstract

In a sensitivity study, the influence of an observed stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on the atmospheric circulation was investigated using the Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) which is a general circulation model. The model was run from 1960 to 1999 (40 years) with a mean seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric ozone. In order to isolate the induced dynamical influence of the observed zonally asymmetric part of the three-dimensional stratospheric ozone, a second run was performed for the boreal extratropics using prescribed monthly means from the 40-year reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40). The main findings are the interdecadal westward shift of the polar vortex at about 65°N and a significant increase in the number of stratospheric sudden warmings during the 1980–99 period. Under the action of zonally asymmetric ozone a decrease in the Arctic Oscillation was identified between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. The lag correlation between the mean Arctic Oscillation at the surface and the daily stratospheric northern annular mode increased in mid-winter. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on Rossby wave breaking in the upper troposphere and found a significant westward shift of poleward Rossby wave breaking events over western Europe in the winter. By this we show that the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly has a strong influence on the tropospheric circulation as a result of enhanced dynamical coupling processes.     

The Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) 1998: experiment overview and modelling of the microphysical processes during the seeding by isentropic gas expansion

The second field campaign of the Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) project took place in February 1998 on the mountain Puy de Dôme in the centre of France. The content of residual aerosol particles, of H₂O₂ and NH₃ in cloud droplets was evaluated by evaporating the drops larger than 5 μm in a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) and by measuring the residual particle concentration and the released gas content. The same trace species were studied behind a round jet impactor for the complementary interstitial aerosol particles smaller than 5 μm diameter. In a second step of experiments, the ambient supercooled cloud was converted to a mixed phase cloud by seeding the cloud with ice particles by the gas release from pressurised gas bottles. A comparison between the physical and chemical characteristics of liquid drops and ice particles allows a study of the fate of the trace constituents during the presence of ice crystals in the cloud.In the present paper, an overview is given of the CIME 98 experiment and the instrumentation deployed. The meteorological situation during the experiment was analysed with the help of a cloud scale model. The microphysics processes and the behaviour of the scavenged aerosol particles before and during seeding are analysed with the detailed microphysical model ExMix. The simulation results agreed well with the observations and confirmed the assumption that the Bergeron–Findeisen process was dominating during seeding and was influencing the partitioning of aerosol particles between drops and ice crystals. The results of the CIME 98 experiment give an insight on microphysical changes, redistribution of aerosol particles and cloud chemistry during the Bergeron–Findeisen process when acting also in natural clouds.     

Energy flow and elemental concentrations in the Steina River ecosystem (Black Forest, Germany)

Considering food web energetics and elemental cycling together allows the testing of hypotheses about the coevolution of biological systems and their physical environment. We investigated the energy flow and the distribution of 25 elements in the Steina River.¶We constructed an annual energy flow network and estimated the emergy ("embodied energy" that includes all the energy involved in a process) contributions of resources sustaining the system. Furthermore, we measured the concentration of various macronutrients, essential elements, and heavy metals in the physical environment and trophic compartments. Finally, we examined the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the "rarity" of an element and its tendency to bioaccumulate. To do so, we used transformity, the relative energy input required to sustain a compartment's net production or the concentration differential of an element between the living community and the physical environment.¶The resulting energy flow network is one of the most complete available for streams. In the Steina, over 99% of the energy input is transported through the system without being processed. Dissolved inorganic matter and sunlight are the largest inputs, but uptake efficiency is much higher for dissolved and particulate organic matter. Transformities of trophic compartments and elements span 6 to 7 orders of magnitude.¶The tendency to bioaccumulate was as predicted for most elements, with macronutrients showing no accumulation and heavy elements accumulating in high-transformity compartments. However, Na and K were found at highest concentrations in consumers, and Pb, Ga, and Cd in algae. Improved estimates may become possible as more knowledge is available on ecosystem flows. We suggest further ways of testing hypotheses about strategies of element processing.     

A physical interpretation of the deterministic fractal–multifractal method as a realization of a generalized multiplicative cascade

In this study, we attempt to offer a solid physical basis for the deterministic fractal–multifractal (FM) approach in geophysics (Puente, Phys Let A 161:441–447, 1992; J Hydrol 187:65–80, 1996). We show how the geometric construction of derived measures, as Platonic projections of fractal interpolating functions transforming multinomial multifractal measures, naturally defines a non-trivial cascade process that may be interpreted as a particular realization of a random multiplicative cascade. In such a light, we argue that the FM approach is as “physical” as any other phenomenological approach based on Richardson’s eddies splitting, which indeed lead to well-accepted models of the intermittencies of nature, as it happens, for instance, when rainfall is interpreted as a quasi-passive tracer in a turbulent flow. Although neither a fractal interpolating function nor the specific multipliers of a random multiplicative cascade can be measured physically, we show how a fractal transformation “cuts through” plausible scenarios to produce a suitable realization that reflects specific arrangements of energies (masses) as seen in nature. This explains why the FM approach properly captures the spectrum of singularities and other statistical features of given data sets. As the FM approach faithfully encodes data sets with compression ratios typically exceeding 100:1, such a property further enhances its “physical simplicity.” We also provide a connection between the FM approach and advection–diffusion processes.     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.