Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century

Abstract

Trends in Canadian temperature and precipitation during the 20th century are analyzed using recently updated and adjusted station data. Six elements, maximum, minimum and mean temperatures along with diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation totals and ratio of snowfall to total precipitation are investigated. Anomalies from the 1961–1990 reference period were first obtained at individual stations, and were then used to generate gridded datasets for subsequent trend analyses. Trends were computed for 1900–1998 for southern Canada (south of 60°N), and separately for 1950–1998 for the entire country, due to insufficient data in the high arctic prior to the 1950s.

From 1900–1998, the annual mean temperature has increased between 0.5 and 1.5°C in the south. The warming is greater in minimum temperature than in maximum temperature in the first half of the century, resulting in a decrease of DTR. The greatest warming occurred in the west, with statistically significant increases mostly seen during spring and summer periods. Annual precipitation has also increased from 5% to 35% in southern Canada over the same period. In general, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation has been increasing due mostly to the increase in winter precipitation which generally falls as snow and an increase of ratio in autumn. Negative trends were identified in some southern regions during spring. From 1950–1998, the pattern of temperature change is distinct: warming in the south and west and cooling in the northeast, with similar magnitudes in both maximum and minimum temperatures. This pattern is mostly evident in winter and spring. Across Canada, precipitation has increased by 5% to 35%, with significant negative trends found in southern regions during winter. Overall, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation has increased, with significant negative trends occurring mostly in southern Canada during spring.

Indices of abnormal climate conditions are also examined. These indices were defined as areas of Canada for 1950–1998, or southern Canada for 1900–1998, with temperature or precipitation anomalies above the 66th or below the 34th percentiles in their relevant time series. These confirmed the above findings and showed that climate has been becoming gradually wetter and warmer in southern Canada throughout the entire century, and in all of Canada during the latter half of the century.     

Skew eddy fluxes as signatures of non‐linear tidal current interactions,with application to Georges Bank

Abstract

The eddy flux of a conservative scalar in a time‐dependent rotary velocity field may have a component that is normal to the scalar gradient. This component is the “skew flux”, which consists of the scalar transport by the Stokes velocity and a part that is always non‐divergent (and hence does not affect scalar evolution). Since tidal velocity fields usually have rotary features, tidal‐band eddy scalar fluxes may include a skew component that can be useful in indicating the occurrence of non‐linear current interactions.

The skew temperature flux associated with the semidiurnal tide in a continental shelf region is demonstrated using simple models, and moored current and temperature observations from Georges Bank. The observed fluxes on the Bank are largely directed along isobaths, with apparent contributions from the topographic rectification of the barotropic tidal current over the Bank's side and from the rotary tidal ellipses in a frontal region. Simple models indicate that the weaker cross‐isobath fluxes can arise through the influence of frictionally induced vertical structure on topographic tidal rectification, a baroclinic tidal current interaction, or the interaction of baroclinic and barotropic tidal currents. In some cases, the simple models show qualitative agreement with the observed fluxes and currents but, in general, more realistic models and better estimates of the background mean temperature field are required to obtain quantitative estimates of the relative importance of these interactions and other processes. Nevertheless, the observations and models suggest that non‐linear interactions involving both barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents are occurring on Georges Bank.     

Clinoform deposition across a boundary between orogenic front and foredeep – an example from the Lower Cretaceous in Arctic Alaska

The Lower Cretaceous Fortress Mountain Formation occupies a spatial and temporal niche between syntectonic deposits at the Brooks Range orogenic front and post‐tectonic strata in the Colville foreland basin. The formation includes basin‐floor fan, marine‐slope and fan‐delta facies that define a clinoform depositional profile. Texture and composition of clasts in the formation suggest progressive burial of a tectonic wedge‐front that included older turbidites and mélange. These new interpretations, based entirely on outcrop study, suggest that the Fortress Mountain Formation spans the boundary between orogenic wedge and foredeep, with proximal strata onlapping the tectonic wedge‐front and distal strata downlapping the floor of the foreland basin. Our reconstruction suggests that clinoform amplitude reflects the structural relief generated by tectonic wedge development and load‐induced flexural subsidence of the foreland basin.     

A numerical model of the internal tide in knight inlet,British Columbia

Abstract

A two‐dimensional, hydrostatic numerical model of the tides in Knight Inlet is compared with observations of velocity and density obtained from three cyclesonde moorings. The observations from a fourth cyclesonde mooring were used to provide boundary data at the open end of the model. The time period in the fjord that the model simulates was a period of high, freshwater runoff, so that the fjord had a distinct, surface layer. The use of high, vertical resolution was avoided by attaching a homogeneous, fresh, surface layer to the top of the model. The density equation was linearized about a mean, fixed density field, and the mixing of density was not allowed.

The model reproduces the semidiurnal (M₂, S₂ and N₂) and diurnal (K₁ and O₁) velocity and density signals in the inlet. The shallow‐water constituents (M₄ and MK₃) are reproduced even though the density equation has been linearized. The fortnightly constituent (MSf) is poorly simulated. When the advection terms in the momentum equation are set to zero, the basic features of the semidiurnal and diurnal constituents are still reproduced, but the shallow‐water constituents are poorly simulated.

The energy flux along the inlet of the M₂ internal tide is insensitive to the advective terms in the momentum equation. The total rate of dissipation of M₂ energy is similar to the energy flux in the M₂ internal tide near the sill, which implies that, according to the model, most of the energy removed from the barotropic tide is fed into the internal tide. The majority of the energy in the M₂ internal tide is dissipated close to the sill of the inlet, but enough of the energy makes its way to the head of the inlet to reflect and set up a recognizable standing wave pattern.     

A three‐dimensional numerical investigation of the idealized planetary boundary layer

Abstract

The nonlinear equations of motion are integrated numerically in time for a region of x‐y‐z space of volume 3h × h × h, where h turns out to be a height slightly above the level where the wind first attains the geostrophic flow direction. Only the ideal case is treated of a horizontal lower boundary, neutral stability, horizontal homogeneity of all dependent mean variables except the mean pressure, and statistically steady state. The resulting flow patterns are turbulent and the eddies transport required amounts of momentum vertically.

Topics which are investigated include the relative directions of stress, wind shear and wind; differences in Ekman wind spirals for the neutral numerical case and a stable atmospheric case; profiles of dimensionless turbulence statistics; effect of allowing the mean density to be either constant or to decrease with height; effect of the wind direction or latitude upon the turbulence intensities; and characteristic structure of the eddies in the planetary boundary layer.     

Statistically downscaled probabilistic multi‐model ensemble projections of precipitation change in a watershed

This paper presents the development of a probabilistic multi‐model ensemble of statistically downscaled future projections of precipitation of a watershed in New Zealand. Climate change research based on the point estimates of a single model is considered less reliable for decision making, and multiple realizations of a single model or outputs from multiple models are often preferred for such purposes. Similarly, a probabilistic approach is preferable over deterministic point estimates. In the area of statistical downscaling, no single technique is considered a universal solution. This is due to the fact that each of these techniques has some weaknesses, owing to its basic working principles. Moreover, watershed scale precipitation downscaling is quite challenging and is more prone to uncertainty issues than downscaling of other climatological variables. So, multi‐model statistical downscaling studies based on a probabilistic approach are required. In the current paper, results from the three well‐reputed statistical downscaling methods are used to develop a Bayesian weighted multi‐model ensemble. The three members of the downscaling ensemble of this study belong to the following three broad categories of statistical downscaling methods: (1) multiple linear regression, (2) multiple non‐linear regression, and (3) stochastic weather generator. The results obtained in this study show that the new strategy adopted here is promising because of many advantages it offers, e.g. it combines the outputs of multiple statistical downscaling methods, provides probabilistic downscaled climate change projections and enables the quantification of uncertainty in these projections. This will encourage any future attempts for combining the results of multiple statistical downscaling methods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical solution of the dispersion equation using a variable dispersion coefficient: method and applications

ABSTRACT

The study presented herein forms part of a wider research project on dispersion prediction in open channel flows which include laboratory, field and numerical investigations. In this paper, a numerical model which uses finite elements in space and finite differences in time for the solution of the convective-dispersion equation is developed and verified. In the model, the dispersion coefficient is considered as a function of time (or distance) during the initial period. It is represented by a modified Fickian type model which has been calibrated by the authors using laboratory data. The numerical model has been used to predict concentration profiles of tracer studies carried out in the laboratory as well as in the field.     

The age,extent and geomorphological significance of the Sassafras basalt,south‐eastern New South Wales

Basalt at Sassafras was erupted in the Middle Eocene. The K‐Ar ages average 45.3 ± 4.9 Ma on whole rock and 48.4 ± 1.9 Ma on plagioclase. The basalt is not limited to a plateau capping, but extends 150 m down into adjacent valleys. Comparison with nearby Eocene basalts shows that there was in excess of 250 m of local relief in the central Shoalhaven valley by the Early Tertiary. The basalts were extruded at high elevation, and denudation of the coastal margin of the upland was already well advanced. Post‐basaltic denudation has been very slow, and the Early Tertiary landscape is well preserved.     

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.