A test for directional-linear independence,with applications to wildfire orientation and size

A nonparametric test for assessing the independence between a directional random variable (circular or spherical, as particular cases) and a linear one is proposed in this paper. The statistic is based on the squared distance between nonparametric kernel density estimates and its calibration is done by a permutation approach. The size and power characteristics of various variants of the test are investigated and compared with those for classical correlation-based tests of independence in an extensive simulation study. Finally, the best-performing variant of the new test is applied in the analysis of the relation between the orientation and size of Portuguese wildfires.     

A method for finding the optimal predictor indices for local wave climate conditions

In this study, a method to obtain local wave predictor indices that take into account the wave generation process is described and applied to several locations. The method is based on a statistical model that relates significant wave height with an atmospheric predictor, defined by sea level pressure fields. The predictor is composed of a local and a regional part, representing the sea and the swell wave components, respectively. The spatial domain of the predictor is determined using the Evaluation of Source and Travel-time of wave Energy reaching a Local Area (ESTELA) method. The regional component of the predictor includes the recent historical atmospheric conditions responsible for the swell wave component at the target point. The regional predictor component has a historical temporal coverage (n-days) different to the local predictor component (daily coverage). Principal component analysis is applied to the daily predictor in order to detect the dominant variability patterns and their temporal coefficients. Multivariate regression model, fitted at daily scale for different n-days of the regional predictor, determines the optimum historical coverage. The monthly wave predictor indices are selected applying a regression model using the monthly values of the principal components of the daily predictor, with the optimum temporal coverage for the regional predictor. The daily predictor can be used in wave climate projections, while the monthly predictor can help to understand wave climate variability or long-term coastal morphodynamic anomalies.     

Possible correlation between miocene global climatic changes and magnetic proxies,using neuro fuzzy logic analysis in a stratigraphic well at the Llanos foreland basin,Colombia

In this work we have assessed the hybrid algorithm of NeuroFuzzy logic (NFL), to establish a correlation between global climatic changes (benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O data), experimental S-ratio (factor characterizing stability of remanent magnetization) and magnetic susceptibility (κ). Magnetic proxies have been measured in 44 samples of the Colombian stratigraphic well Saltarín 1A (distal Llanos foreland basin). κ and Sratios were linked to global δ¹⁸O data assuming a constant accumulation rate for a 305 meters thick stratigraphic interval flanked by the two palynological age constrains available. This interval encompasses, from top to base, the bottom of the Guayabo formation, the León, and the upper unit of the Carbonera formations (lower to middle Miocene). The best inference is accomplished applying a Takagi-Sugeno-Kan (TSK) fuzzy model with four fuzzy rules and the δ¹⁸O, S-ratios and κ data used in a linear form to train the system. These results are interpreted as the outcome of a significant influence of global climatic changes upon magnetic proxies. A stronger correlation is perhaps prevented by the likely influence of local and regional tectonic events and climatic changes that could have affected the distal segment of the Colombian Llanos foreland basin during Miocene times. We argue that late diagenesis of primary magnetic minerals and the assumption of a constant accumulation rate might have a minor influence on these results.     

An integrated approach for investigating geomorphic response to extreme events: methodological framework and application to the October 2011 flood in the Magra River catchment,Italy

A high‐magnitude flash flood, which took place on 25 October 2011 in the Magra River catchment (1717 km²), central‐northern Italy, is used to illustrate some aspects of the geomorphic response to the flood. An overall methodological framework is described for using interlinked observations and analyses of the geomorphic impacts of an extreme event. The following methods and analyses were carried out: (i) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the event; (ii) sediment delivery by event landslide mapping; (iii) identification and estimation of wood recruitment, deposition, and budgeting; (iv) interpretation of morphological processes by analysing fluvial deposits; (v) remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analysis of channel width changes. In response to the high‐magnitude hydrological event, a large number of landslides occurred, consisting of earth flows, soil slips, and translational slides, and a large quantity of wood was recruited, in most part deriving from floodplain erosion caused by bank retreat and channel widening. The most important impact of the flood event within the valley floor was an impressive widening of the overall channel bed and the reactivation of wide portions of the pre‐event floodplain. Along the investigated (unconfined or partly confined) streams (total investigated length of 93.5 km), the channel width after the flood was up to about 20 times the channel width before the event. The study has shown that a synergic use of different methods and types of evidence provides fundamental information for characterizing and understanding the geomorphic effects of intense flood events. The prediction of geomorphic response to a flood event is still challenging and many limitations exist; however a robust geomorphological analysis can contribute to the identification of the most critical reaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exact linearization of non-planar intermediary orbits in the satellite theory

In this paper we consider the reduction of the equations of motion for non-planar perturbed two body problems into linear form. It is seen that this can be easily accomplished for any element of the class of radial intermediaries to the satellite problem proposed by Deprit in 1981, since they have a functional dependence suitable for linearization. The transformation is worked out by using an adequate set of redundant variables. Four harmonic oscillators are obtained, of which two are coupled through gyroscopic terms. Their constant frequencies contain the secular contribution of the main problem of artificial satellite theory up to the order of the considered intermediary. Therefore, this result may well be interesting in relation to the study and prediction of accurate long-term solutions to satellite problems.     

Potassic and low- and high-Ti mildly alkaline volcanism in the Neoproterozoic Ramada Plateau, southernmost Brazil

Ramada Plateau Neoproterozoic volcanism represents a portion of the shoshonitic and mildly alkaline magmatism related to postcollisional events of the Brasiliano/Pan African cycle of southernmost Brazil. It is constituted by shoshonitic basic-intermediate lavas, followed by a bimodal sequence characterized by pyroclastic deposits, lava flows, and hypabyssal rocks with ages of 549±5 Ma. The shoshonitic magmatism presents greater K₂O than Na₂O₂, K₂O/Na₂O ratios close to 1, and moderate large ion lithophile and high-field strength element contents. The bimodal basic-acid volcanism presents a transitional chemical affinity with features of sodic, silica-saturated alkaline to continental tholeiitic series. Observed basic and acid rocks with contrasting Ti contents are referred to as high- and low-Ti basalt-rhyolites. Another group of acid rocks with higher Nb, Ta, and Rb values was identified as high-Nb rhyolites. The Ramada Plateau magmatism is comparable to associations related to the final stages of orogenic cycles, in which shoshonitic and high- and low-Ti alkaline magmatism reflects the melting of subduction-modified sources, whereas the high-Nb magmas show less influence of subduction-related metasomatism and are closer to magmas produced from anorogenic sources. A model of magma generation in collisional settings involving slab break-off and asthenospheric upwelling is applied to the evolution of magmatism from subduction-related to anorogenic in the Ramada Plateau.     

Long-period seismic source inversions using global tomographic models

We investigate the effect of laterally varying earth structure on centroid moment tensor inversions using fundamental mode mantle waves. Theoretical seismograms are calculated using a full formulation of surface wave ray theory. Calculations are made using a variety of global tomographic earth models. Results are compared with those obtained using the so-called great-circle approximation, which assumes that phase corrections are given in terms of mean phase slowness along the great circle, and which neglects amplitude effects of heterogeneity. Synthetic tests suggest that even source parameters which fit the data very well may have large errors due to incomplete knowledge of lateral heterogeneity. The method is applied to 31 shallow, large earthquakes. For a given earthquake, the focal mechanisms calculated using different earth models and different forward modelling techniques can significantly vary. We provide a range of selected solutions based on the fit to the data, rather than one single solution. Difficulties in constraining the dip-slip components of the seismic moment tensor often produce overestimates of seismic moment, leading to near vertical dip-slip mechanisms. This happens more commonly for earth models not fitting the data well, confirming that more accurate modelling of lateral heterogeneity can help to constrain the dip-slip components of the seismic moment tensor.     

Seasonal dynamics of a large, shallow lake, laguna Chascomús: The role of light limitation and other physical variables

The most conspicuous waterbodies in the Pampa region of Argentina are the so-called “lagunas”. A typical Pampean laguna may be described as a relatively large (100+ha), permanent, shallow lake. Here, we report the dynamics of laguna Chascomús, sampled weekly, from April 2001 to June 2003. During the period, the lakes experienced three consecutive floods waves that affected the concentration of major ions and the optical signature of the dissolved organic matter. Despite these hydrological alterations, laguna Chascomús was permanently limited by light. Transparency was to a great extent controlled by the incident photosynthetic available radiation irradiance. We hypothesize that wind contributes to the permanent mixing of the lake, as well as to lessen the sedimentation losses of photoautotrophs.