Long-period seismic source inversions using global tomographic models

We investigate the effect of laterally varying earth structure on centroid moment tensor inversions using fundamental mode mantle waves. Theoretical seismograms are calculated using a full formulation of surface wave ray theory. Calculations are made using a variety of global tomographic earth models. Results are compared with those obtained using the so-called great-circle approximation, which assumes that phase corrections are given in terms of mean phase slowness along the great circle, and which neglects amplitude effects of heterogeneity. Synthetic tests suggest that even source parameters which fit the data very well may have large errors due to incomplete knowledge of lateral heterogeneity. The method is applied to 31 shallow, large earthquakes. For a given earthquake, the focal mechanisms calculated using different earth models and different forward modelling techniques can significantly vary. We provide a range of selected solutions based on the fit to the data, rather than one single solution. Difficulties in constraining the dip-slip components of the seismic moment tensor often produce overestimates of seismic moment, leading to near vertical dip-slip mechanisms. This happens more commonly for earth models not fitting the data well, confirming that more accurate modelling of lateral heterogeneity can help to constrain the dip-slip components of the seismic moment tensor.     

Seasonal dynamics of a large, shallow lake, laguna Chascomús: The role of light limitation and other physical variables

The most conspicuous waterbodies in the Pampa region of Argentina are the so-called “lagunas”. A typical Pampean laguna may be described as a relatively large (100+ha), permanent, shallow lake. Here, we report the dynamics of laguna Chascomús, sampled weekly, from April 2001 to June 2003. During the period, the lakes experienced three consecutive floods waves that affected the concentration of major ions and the optical signature of the dissolved organic matter. Despite these hydrological alterations, laguna Chascomús was permanently limited by light. Transparency was to a great extent controlled by the incident photosynthetic available radiation irradiance. We hypothesize that wind contributes to the permanent mixing of the lake, as well as to lessen the sedimentation losses of photoautotrophs.     

Recommendation system to determine suitable and viable hiking routes: a prototype application in Sierra de las Nieves Nature Reserve (southern Spain)

This paper describes a system for recommending hiking routes to help manage hiking activities in a protected area. The system proposes various routes, based on five criteria that maximize some aspects of hikers’ requirements (by analyzing the viability and difficulty of the trails) and also those of protected areas managers (by proposals to relieve congestion in areas already used for hiking and to promote awareness of new ones, as a contribution to environmental education). The recommendation system uses network analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information system by free software tools: PgRouting, PostgreSQL and PostGIS. This system has been tested in Sierra de las Nieves Nature Reserve (Andalusia, Spain). Of the 182 routes obtained by the system, 62 (34%) are considered viable for hikers in Sierra de las Nieves, taking into account the type of user most likely to visit this protected area. Most routes have a high difficulty level, which is coherent with the mountainous character of the protected area.     

Characterization of a landslide-triggered debris flow at a rainforest-covered mountain region in Brazil

Natural Hazards - Debris flows represent great hazard to humans due to their high destructive power. Understanding their hydrogeomorphic dynamics is fundamental in hazard assessment studies,...     

Risk perception in Unión Juárez,Chiapas, Mexico

The proximity to the Tacaná volcano, to the subduction zone between the Cocos and North America plates, to the Mexican coast, and to the active geologic Polochic-Motagua fault makes the population of Union Juarez (UJ), Chiapas, Mexico, exposed to many natural hazards including hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. We assessed the risk perception of UJ, and our findings indicate that the community has moderate level of risk perception according to the scale of the National Center for Disaster Prevention of Mexico. The UJ’s risk perception is mainly dependent on gender and religion because females unlike males in case of disasters and emergencies: (1) believe that it is necessary to improve their preparedness; (2) trust the local civil protection authorities; (3) would know how to respond; (4) would follow the established protocols; and (5) would not relocate. On the other hand, non-religious people know better the protocols to follow in the event of disasters than the religious population. Besides, the community of UJ reasonably perceives earthquakes and extreme rains as the main hazards that they are exposed to, while volcanic hazards are considered less important although the town is located very close to the Tacaná volcano that has been active during the last 30 years. The local population lacks of proper knowledge and resources to develop adequate disaster mitigation plans. Surprisingly, the work of the local civil protection is considered poor. Our results can be used for local authorities as a tool to strength the disaster prevention actions in UJ.

     

Exploring the interactions between vulnerability,resilience and adaptation to extreme temperatures

Natural Hazards - Proposed ways of improving adaptation to climate change have most often been supported by narrowly framed and separate analysis. This article investigates how different levels of...     

A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime

Natural Hazards - Wildfire susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specific short-term...     

Salt tectonics vs. inversion tectonics: The anticlines of the western Maestrazgo revisited (eastern Iberian Chain,Spain)

Many works in the last decades underline the role of evaporites, not just as a conditioning factor but as the engine for subsidence and eventually basin inversion. The western Mediterranean alpine ranges are being investigated in this regard because of the presence of discontinuous units of Permian to Triassic evaporites, deposited in the western Tethys basins. This work presents a thorough analysis of two particular structures (Cañada Vellida and Miravete anticlines) in the intraplate Maestrazgo basin (eastern Iberian Chain, Spain) in which evidence to support their reinterpretation as salt-driven structures have been recently reported. Our analysis includes (i) a comprehensive stratigraphic and structural study of the folds along their entire trace, (ii) the compilation of thickness and distribution of evaporite–bearing and supraevaporite units, paying special attention to changes in the thickness of units in relation to anticlines, and (iii) the study of fault patterns, sometimes in relation to the mechanical stratigraphy. All three aspects are also documented and discussed on a regional scale. The new data and interpretations reported here reinforce the extensional origin of the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous basins, and the role of regional extensional tectonics as the responsible for the development of first-order syn-sedimentary normal fault zones driving the formation and evolution of sub-basins. These basins were subsequently inverted and deformed, including the formation of complex, box-geometry anticlines that, in their turn, controlled deposition in Cenozoic basins. The review of the arguments that support the alternative of salt tectonics for the origin of such anticlines has allowed us to delve into the sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the inverted extensional basins and to propose a specific model for the development of these faulted anticlines. The role of salt levels and other interlayered detachments in the structuring of sedimentary basins and their inversion is also pondered. The observations in the eastern Iberian Chain reported here have implications to assess ongoing reinterpretations in terms of salt tectonics in other alpine basins and ranges of the western Mediterranean.     

Effect of increasing temperatures on cooling systems. A case of study: European greenhouse sector

The work attempts to assess the effects of global warming on the efficacy of current greenhouse cooling methods following a methodology previously proved for other agricultural buildings. The cooling potential of four greenhouse cooling techniques (natural ventilation, forced ventilation, fogging and shading) were simulated by computer modelling for five European locations, calculating the greenhouse internal air temperature from measured external climate data. Four 2080s scenarios were analysed in these five locations. They were constructed as a combination of General Circulation Models (Had CM3 and ECHAM4) downscaled for Europe with the HIRHAM and RCA3 regional models and driven by the A2 and B2 socio-economic scenarios. The crop considered as reference was tomato. The results showed that, in locations in southern Europe, adding evaporative cooling methods to ventilation and/or shading will be indispensable. In some areas of northern Europe, natural ventilation will no longer be sufficient, and shading or fogging will also be necessary. The economic consequences will be important, over all in the southern locations where water consumption, investment and working costs will be higher and necessary to ensure the crop production.     

Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support

Pattern scaling offers the promise of exploring spatial details of the climate system response to anthropogenic climate forcings without their full simulation by state-of-the-art Global Climate Models. The circumstances in which pattern scaling methods are capable of delivering on this promise are explored by quantifying its performance in an idealized setting. Given a large ensemble that is assumed to sample the full range of variability and provide quantitative decision-relevant information, the soundness of applying the pattern scaling methodology to generate decision relevant climate scenarios is explored. Pattern scaling is not expected to reproduce its target exactly, of course, and its generic limitations have been well documented since it was first proposed. In this work, using as a particular example the quantification of the risk of heat waves in Southern Europe, it is shown that the magnitude of the error in the pattern scaled estimates can be significant enough to disqualify the use of this approach in quantitative decision-support. This suggests that future application of pattern scaling in climate science should provide decision makers not just a restatement of the assumptions made, but also evidence that the methodology is adequate for purpose in practice for the case under consideration.