Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers

Abstract

The study of sediment load is important for its implications to the environment and water resources engineering. Four models were considered in the study of suspended sediment concentration prediction: artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy model (NF), conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy (WNF) model, and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) method. Using data from a US Geological Survey gauging station, the suspended sediment concentration predicted by the WNF model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured data. Also the proposed WNF model generated reasonable predictions for the extreme values. The cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this model was much higher than that predicted by the other models, and is close to the observed data. However, in the current modelling, the ANN, NF and SRC models underestimated sediment load. The WNF model was successful in reproducing the hysteresis phenomenon, but the SRC method was not able to model this behaviour. In general, the results showed that the NF model performed better than the ANN and SRC models.

Citation Mirbagheri, S. A., Nourani, V., Rajaee, T. & Alikhani, A. (2010) Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189.     

The use of geomorphological elements for evaluation of visual quality of Israeli coast

This study describes a method for quantitative evaluation of visual resources of the Mediterranean coast of Israel. The method used visual characteristics of contrast, variety, competition, composition and harmony to identify visually preferred sites. Various coastal physical elements were used as a measurement scale of the characteristics. The study also examined the use of photographic slides vs. filed visit as a tool for visual resources evaluation of the Israeli coast. Findings were based on data gathered from a questionnaire given to two groups in the laboratory and in the field. Statistical analysis of the findings indicated that the proposed method could be used effectively to measure visual preference of the Israeli coast using physical elements and quantitative values. The data also show that the use of photographic slides in laboratory conditions is as effective a tool as field observation for the evaluation of observer's visual preference of the coast.     

Inertial ranges in three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic turbulence

A theory is presented both for spectral energy transfer and for the transfer of spectral components of pseudo-potential enstrophy in a homogeneous quasi-geostrophic turbulent field which is rendered anisotropic by the distortion caused by a random collection of vortices superimposed on the principal motions. The fluid is, thus, subjected to an almost irrotational distortion. The random vortices cause straining effects on turbulent velocity and temperature fluctuations and modify the energy spectrum in the spectral ranges of interest. The strain imposed by the distortion is assumed to be homogeneous. For three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic turbulence that conserves pseudo-potential enstrophy as well as energy, this theory predicts –8/3 and –4 power inertial-range energy spectra.The predictions favourably corroborate the observed spectrum of energy in the atmosphere in the region of hemispheric wave-numbers 10–16 with a –8/3 slope and at higher wave-numbers with –4 slope on a log-log energy-wave-number diagram. The transfer rates of pseudo-potential enstrophy in the range 10n16 and of energy in the rangen>16 are identically zero, while the transfer of energy in the first range is from higher to lower wave-numbers and that of the pseudo-potential enstrophy in the second range is from lower to higher wave-numbers.As compared with the earlier two-dimensional turbulence theory of Kraichnan and the quasigeostrophic turbulence theory of Charney, the present theory predicts more realistic shapes of the energy spectra of atmospheric motions at scales shorter than the baroclinic excitation scales.     

Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate

This paper introduces a framework for estimating stationary and non-stationary return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes using Bayesian inference. This framework is implemented in the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software package, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis of extremes in the geosciences. In a Bayesian approach, NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters with a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) approach for global optimization over the parameter space. NEVA includes posterior probability intervals (uncertainty bounds) of estimated return levels through Bayesian inference, with its inherent advantages in uncertainty quantification. The software presents the results of non-stationary extreme value analysis using various exceedance probability methods. We evaluate both stationary and non-stationary components of the package for a case study consisting of annual temperature maxima for a gridded global temperature dataset. The results show that NEVA can reliably describe extremes and their return levels.     

Global trends and patterns of drought from space

This paper analyzes changes in areas under droughts over the past three decades and alters our understanding of how amplitude and frequency of droughts differ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH). Unlike most previous global-scale studies that have been based on climate models, this study is based on satellite gauge-adjusted precipitation observations. Here, we show that droughts in terms of both amplitude and frequency are more variable over land in the SH than in the NH. The results reveal no significant trend in the areas under drought over land in the past three decades. However, after investigating land in the NH and the SH separately, the results exhibit a significant positive trend in the area under drought over land in the SH, while no significant trend is observed over land in the NH. We investigate the spatial patterns of the wetness and dryness over the past three decades, and we show that several regions, such as the southwestern United States, Texas, parts of the Amazon, the Horn of Africa, northern India, and parts of the Mediterranean region, exhibit a significant drying trend. The global trend maps indicate that central Africa, parts of southwest Asia (e.g., Thailand, Taiwan), Central America, northern Australia, and parts of eastern Europe show a wetting trend during the same time span. The results of this satellite-based study disagree with several model-based studies which indicate that droughts have been increasing over land. On the other hand, our findings concur with some of the observation-based studies.     

The impact of el Nino‐Southern oscillation on the temperature field over Canada: Research note

Abstract

The impact of the two phases of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely El Niño and La Niña, on the surface and lower tropospheric temperature fields over Canada is documented. Gridded surface temperature data for 91 years (1900–1990) and 500–1000 hPa thickness data for 49 years (1946–1994) have been analyzed statistically in the context of El Niño, La Niña and normal years.

Using a composite analysis, the present study conclusively demonstrates that significant positive surface temperature anomalies spread eastward from the west coast of Canada to the Labrador coast from the late fall to early spring (November through May) following the onset of El Niño episodes. The accompanying temperatures in the lower troposphere show a transition from the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern to the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern over the North American sector during the same period. Conversely, significant negative surface temperature anomalies spread southeastward from the Yukon and extend into the upper Great Lakes region by the winter season following the onset of La Niña episodes. Furthermore, the lower tropospheric temperatures show a negatively‐phased PNA‐like pattern in early winter which weakens considerably by May of the following year. Thus, while western Canadian surface temperatures are influenced during both phases of ENSO, eastern Canadian surface temperature effects are found during the El Niño phase only. The impact of ENSO on the Canadian surface temperatures is the strongest during the winter season and nearly disappears by spring (April and May). The largest positive (negative) anomalies are found to be centred over two separate regions, one over the Yukon and the other just west of Hudson Bay in the El Niño (La Niña) years. Over western Canada, mean wintertime temperature distribution of the El Niño (La Niña) years is found to be shifted towards warmer (colder) values relative to the distribution of the normal years.

This study suggests the possibility of developing a long‐range forecasting technique for Canada using ENSO related indices.     

Substructure and the cusp and fold relations

Gravitational lensing of a background source by a foreground galaxy lens occasionally produces four images of the source. The cusp and the fold relations impose conditions on the ratios of magnifications of these four-image lenses. In this theoretical investigation, we explore the sensitivity of these relations to the presence of substructure in the lens. Starting with a smooth lens potential, we add varying amounts of substructure, while keeping the source position fixed, and find that the fold relation is a more robust indicator of substructure than the cusp relation for the images. This robustness is independent of the detailed spatial distribution of the substructure, as well as of the ellipticity of the lensing potential and the presence of external shear.     

Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge in the Gulf of Oman Using a Storm Surge–Wave–Tide Coupled Model

Ocean Science Journal - A storm surge is a complex phenomenon in which current, tide, and waves interact with each other. Even if the wind is the main force of driving the surge, waves and tide are...