Comment on “Reassessment of rain experiments and operations in Israel including synoptic considerations” by Zev Levin,Noam Halfon and Pinhas Alpert [Atmos. Res. 97 (2010) 513–525]

Levin et al. (referred here as LHA) made a sweeping conclusion that cloud seeding has been ineffective in Israel. They claimed that the results of the Israel-2 experiment could be fully ascribed to synoptic bias. However, the cross over analysis of Israel-2 has shown the same already in 1990 by Gabriel and Rosenfeld. While LHA only showed differences in the 850 hPa winds being stronger in the north seeded days of Israeli-2, Rosenfeld and Farbstein had already shown quantitatively in 1992 that this synoptic bias explains less than half of the indicated seeding effect in the north. Furthermore, accepting that a cross over design protects against synoptic bias means that the highly positive and statistically significant indicated seeding effect in Israeli-1, which was based on a cross-over design, cannot be explained by such synoptic bias. Instead, LHA completely ignored the Israeli-1 experiment.LHA's evaluation of the operational seeding used implied assumption that amounted to historical comparisons that have already been shown to be invalid, especially for the Israeli situation due to the decreasing trend of target–control ratio, especially over the eastern upper Galilee. For all of the above reasons, the conclusion of LHA that cloud seeding is ineffective in Israel is not supported by the data.Given the uncertainties, both physical and statistical, the Israeli water authority has embarked on the Israeli-4 randomized cloud seeding experiment, which is aimed at testing the hypothesis that cloud seeding might be affecting mainly the precipitation in the orographic clouds developing over the hills in the catchment of the Jordan River.     

Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability Associated with Growing Season Droughts and Pluvials on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract

The importance of measurements of the vertical distribution of odd nitrogen in studies of ozone chemistry and climate change has long being recognized. In this paper, we use the optimal estimation method developed by Rodgers (1976, 1990) to retrieve NO₂ vertical profiles from slant column observations made with a portable ultraviolet (UV)‐visible zenith‐sky spectrometer operated on the ground during the Middle Atmosphere Nitrogen TRend Assessment (MANTRA) balloon campaign carried out at Vanscoy, Saskatchewan, Canada (52°N, 107°W), from 18 to 25 August 1998. Late summer was chosen for the campaign because the stratospheric zonal wind velocity changes sign at that time. Under such conditions the stratospheric winds are at a minimum, leaving the stratosphere in a dynamically quiescent state and closer to photochemical control (Fahey et al., 2001; Fioletov and Shepherd, 2003). The NO₂ profile retrieved from the ground‐based observations is compared with the co‐located and simultaneous NO₂ profile measured by a balloon‐borne UV‐visible spectrometer during sunrise on 24 August. Good agreement is observed, giving us confidence in the retrieval technique adopted. The retrieved NO₂ profiles are also compared with the output of the Model for Evaluating oZONe trends (MEZON) 3D stratospheric chemical transport model. It is observed that, for altitudes below the peak concentration, the model underestimates the NO₂ amount, and at the altitude of peak concentration, the model values lie between the values measured from the balloon and those retrieved from the ground‐based measurements. Nevertheless, the model reproduces the general shape of the retrieved profiles, including the altitude of the NO₂ maximum, for both sunrise and sunset conditions.     

Prediction and controlling of flyrock in blasting operation using artificial neural network

Flyrock is one of the most hazardous events in blasting operation of surface mines. There are several empirical methods to predict flyrock. Low performance of such models is due to complexity of flyrock analysis. Existence of various effective parameters and their unknown relationships are the main reasons for inaccuracy of the empirical models. Presently, application of new approaches such as artificial intelligence is highly recommended. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict and control flyrock in blasting operation of Sangan iron mine, Iran incorporating rock properties and blast design parameters using artificial neural network (ANN) method. A three-layer feedforward back-propagation neural network having 13 hidden neurons with nine input parameters and one output parameter were trained using 192 experimental blast datasets. It was also observed that in ascending order, blastability index, charge per delay, hole diameter, stemming length, powder factor are the most effective parameters on the flyrock. Reducing charge per delay caused significant reduction in the flyrock from 165 to 25 m in the Sangan iron mine.     

Estimating the potential of ocean wave power resources

The realistic assessment of an ocean wave energy resource that can be converted to an electrical power at various offshore sites depends upon many factors, and these include estimating the resource recognizing the random nature of the site-specific wave field, and optimizing the power conversion from particular wave energy conversion devices. In order to better account for the uncertainty in wave power resource estimates, conditional probability distribution functions of wave power in a given sea-state are derived. Theoretical expressions for the deep and shallow water limits are derived and the role of spectral width is studied. The theoretical model estimates were compared with the statistics obtained from the wave-by-wave analysis of JONSWAP based ocean wave time-series. It was shown that the narrow-band approximation is appropriate when the variability due to wave period is negligible. The application of the short-term models in evaluating the long-term wave power resource at a site was illustrated using wave data measured off the California coast. The final example illustrates the procedure for incorporating the local wave data and the sea-state model together with a wave energy device to obtain an estimate of the potential wave energy that could be converted into a usable energy resource.     

Accuracy of dynamic disk-based DDA with respect to a single sliding disk cluster

Disk clusters are developed to represent the shape of granular materials more precisely (compared to circular particles) and to minimise excessive rolling. Investigating the behaviour of dynamic disk-based discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) with disk clusters is very important to evaluate the applicability of disk-based DDA to dynamic problems in geomechanics. In this paper, the accuracy of disk-based DDA under dynamic conditions is studied by a comprehensive sensitivity analysis. The results obtained by disk-based DDA are compared with the analytical solutions of a disk cluster on an incline subjected to gravitational force only, and three different accelerations of increasing complexity with sinusoidal input functions as well as gravitational load. In this research, the effects of time step size and interface friction angles on the results are studied. Overall, most of the error for both velocity and displacement occurs at the beginning of the solution. With increasing friction angle, the initial perturbation of the solution increases in the case of sliding under gravitational force only, and decreases in the case of sliding under dynamic loads. This study shows that disk-based DDA predicts accurately the velocities and displacements derived with respect to the frictional resistance offered by the inclines.     

Electrofacies in gas shale from well log data via cluster analysis: A case study of the Perth Basin,Western Australia

Identifying reservoir electrofacies has an important role in determining hydrocarbon bearing intervals. In this study, electrofacies of the Kockatea Formation in the Perth Basin were determined via cluster analysis. In this method, distance data were initially calculated and then connected spatially by using a linkage function. The dendrogram function was used to extract the cluster tree for formations over the study area. Input logs were sonic log (DT), gamma ray log (GR), resistivity log (IND), and spontaneous potential (SP). A total of 30 reservoir electrofacies were identified within this formation. Integrated geochemical and petrophysics data showed that zones with electrofacies 3, 4, 9, and 10 have potential for shale gas production. In addition, the results showed that cluster analysis is a precise, rapid, and cost-effective method for zoning reservoirs and determining electrofacies in hydrocarbon reservoirs.     

Measuring statistical isotropy of CMB anisotropy

The statistical expectation values of the temperature fluctuations and polarization of cosmic microwave background (CMB) are assumed to be preserved under rotations of the sky. We investigate the statistical isotropy (SI) of the CMB maps recently measured by the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP) using the bipolar spherical harmonic formalism proposed in Hajian and Souradeep [Hajian, A., Souradeep, T. (2003) Astrophys. J. Lett. 597, L5] for CMB temperature anisotropy and extended to CMB polarization in Basak, Hajian and Souradeep [Basak, S., Hajian, A., Souradeep, T. (2006) Phys. Rev. D74, 02130(R)]. The Bipolar Power Spectrum (BiPS) had been measured for the full sky CMB anisotropy maps of the first year WMAP data and now for the recently released three years of WMAP data. We also introduce and measure directional sensitive reduced Bipolar coefficients on the three year WMAP ILC map. Consistent with our published results from first year WMAP data we have no evidence for violation of statistical isotropy on large angular scales. Preliminary analysis of the recently released first WMAP polarization maps, however, indicate significant violation of SI even when the foreground contaminated regions are masked out. Further work is required to confirm a possible cosmic origin and rule out the (more likely) origin in observational artifact such as foreground residuals at high galactic latitude.     

Continuum model and analysis of wick-drained systems

An equivalent homogeneous continuum theory is developed for modelling discretely drained soil stratum. The model accounts for the local horizontal flow to discrete vertical drains such as wick or sand or stone columns as well as direct vertical drainage of the soil and global horizontal flow due to non-uniform horizontal conditions. Calibration curves for the model are presented for the case of no soil smear due to the drain installation and for the case when smear exists. The model is implemented in both analytical and finite element analyses for those cases where no well resistance is present and when it is of importance. The accuracy and applicability of the model is demonstrated for simple one- and two- layered problems including smear and well resistance.