A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Long-term observations of the group structure of surface waves in ice

Ocean Dynamics - Several years of surface wave observations in the Chukchi Sea reveal wave groups are a common feature in open water and ice-covered conditions. The strength of the groupiness, here...     

Ultraviolet observations of Phoebe from the Cassini UVIS

Observations of Saturn's distant moon Phoebe were made at far-ultraviolet (FUV) (1100-1900 Å) and extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) (600-1100 Å) wavelengths by the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) during the Cassini spacecraft flyby on June 11, 2004. These are the first UV spectra of Phoebe and the first detection of water ice on a Solar System surface using FUV wavelengths. The characteristics of water ice in the FUV are presented, and Hapke models are used to interpret the spectra in terms of composition and grain size; the use of both areal and intimate mixing models is explored. Non-ice species used in these models include carbon, ice tholin, Triton tholin, poly-HCN and kerogen. Satisfactory disk-integrated fits are obtained for intimate mixtures of ∼10% H₂O plus a non-ice species. Spatially resolved regions of higher (∼20%) and lower (∼5%) H₂O ice concentrations are also detected. Phoebe does not display any evidence of volatile activity. Upper limits on atomic oxygen and carbon are 5×¹⁰¹¹ and 2×¹⁰¹² atoms/cm², respectively, for solar photon scattering. The UVIS detection of water ice on Phoebe, and the ice amounts detected, are consistent with IR measurements and contribute to the evidence for a Phoebe origin in the outer Solar System rather than in the main asteroid belt.     

The albedo dichotomy of Iapetus measured at UV wavelengths

The dramatic hemispheric dichotomy in albedo displayed by Saturn's moon Iapetus has intrigued astronomers for centuries. Here we report on far-ultraviolet observations of Iapetus' bright and dark terrains from Cassini. We compare the reflectance spectra of Iapetus's dark terrain, Hyperion and Phoebe and find that both Phoebe and Hyperion are richer in water ice than Iapetus' dark terrain. Spectra of the lowest latitudes of the dark terrain display the diagnostic water ice absorption feature; water ice amounts increase within the dark material away from the apex (at 90° W longitude, the center of the dark leading hemisphere), consistent with thermal segregation of water ice. The water ice in the darkest, warmest low latitude regions is not expected to be stable and may be a sign of ongoing or recent emplacement of the dark material from an exogenic source.     

Crossing Boundaries in a Collaborative Modeling Workspace

There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we present a case study documenting the mechanisms by which managers and scientists collaborated to incorporate climate change projections into Colorado’s State Wildlife Action Plan. A critical component of the project was the use of a collaborative modeling and visualization workspace: the U.S. Geological Survey’s Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM). Using video analysis and pre/post surveys from this case study, we examine how the RAM facilitated cognitive and social processes that co-produced a more salient and credible end product. This case provides practical suggestions to scientists and practitioners who want to implement actionable science.     

Die Ergebnisse der neueren deutschen quartärgeologischcn Forschung im Baltikum

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

High-resolution mass spectrometric characterization of dissolved organic matter from warm and cold periods in the NEEM ice core

Dissolved organic matter(DOM) is an important component of ice cores but is currently poorly characterized. DOM from one Holocene sample(HS, aged at 1600–4500 B.P.) and one Last Glacial Maximum sample(LS, aged at 21000–25000 B.P.) from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling(NEEM) ice core were analyzed by ultra-high resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry(FT-ICR-MS). CHO compounds contributed 50% of the compounds identified in negative-ionization mode in these two samples, with significant contributions from organic N, S, and P compounds, likely suggesting that marine DOM was an important source in these samples. Overall, the chemical compositions are similar between these two samples, suggesting their consistent DOM sources. However, subtle differences in the DOM between these two samples are apparent and could indicate differences in source strength or chemistry occurring through both pre-and post-depositional processes. For example, higher relative amounts of condensed carbon compounds in the HS DOM(5%), compared to the LS DOM(2%), suggest potentially important contributions from terrestrial sources. Greater incorporation of P in the observed DOM in the LS DOM(22%), compared to the HS DOM(13%), indicate more active microbiological processes that likely contribute to phosphorus incorporation into the DOM pool. Although these two samples present only a preliminary analysis of DOM in glacial/interglacial periods, the data indicate a need to expand the analysis into a broader range of ice-core samples, geographical locations, and glacial/interglacial periods.     

Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.     

The effect of lithology on valley width,terrace distribution,and bedload provenance in a tectonically stable catchment with flat‐lying stratigraphy

How rock resistance or erodibility affects fluvial landforms and processes is an outstanding question in geomorphology that has recently garnered attention owing to the recognition that the erosion rates of bedrock channels largely set the pace of landscape evolution. In this work, we evaluate valley width, terrace distribution, and bedload provenance in terms of reach scale variation in lithology in the study reach and discuss the implications for landscape evolution in a catchment with relatively flat‐lying stratigraphy and very little uplift. A reach of the Buffalo National River in Arkansas was partitioned into lithologic reaches and the mechanical and chemical resistance of the main lithologies making up the catchment was measured. Valley width and the spatial distribution of terraces were compared among the different lithologic reaches. The surface grain size and provenance of coarse (2–90 mm) sediment of both modern gravel bars and older terrace deposits that make up the former bedload were measured and defined. The results demonstrate a strong impact of lithology upon valley width, terrace distribution, and bedload provenance and therefore, upon landscape evolution processes. Channel down‐cutting through different lithologies creates variable patterns of resistance across catchments and continents. Particularly in post‐tectonic and non‐tectonic landscapes, the variation in resistance that arises from the exhumation of different rocks in channel longitudinal profiles can impact local base levels, initiating responses that can be propagated through channel networks. The rate at which that response is transmitted through channels is potentially amplified and/or mitigated by differences between the resistance of channel beds and bedload sediment loads. In the study reach, variation in lithologic resistance influences the prevalence of lateral and vertical processes, thus producing a spatial pattern of terraces that reflects rock type rather than climate, regional base level change, or hydrologic variability. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing flow regime,channel hydraulics,and biological communities to infer flow–ecology relationships in the Mara River of Kenya and Tanzania

Abstract

Equatorial rivers of East Africa exhibit unusually complex seasonal and inter-annual flow regimes, and aquatic and adjacent terrestrial organisms have adapted to cope with this flow variability. This study examined the annual flow regime over the past 40 years for three gauging stations on the Mara River in Kenya and Tanzania, which is of international importance because it is the only perennial river traversing the Mara-Serengeti ecoregion. Select environmental flow components were quantified and converted to ecologically relevant hydraulic variables. Vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected and identified at target study sites during low and high flows. The results were compared with available knowledge of the life histories and flow sensitivities of the riverine communities to infer flow–ecology relationships. Management implications are discussed, including the need to preserve a dynamic environmental flow regime to protect ecosystems in the region. The results for the Mara may serve as a useful model for river basins of the wider equatorial East Africa region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman