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41.
The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
42.
Climate change impacts on global agriculture   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.  相似文献   
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In this paper, a new method for the determination of apsidal motion parameters in eccentric eclipsing binaries is presented. A sequential procedure has been followed throughout allowing an automatized on-line computation of the elements and their accuracies as well as a more realistic fit to the observed times of minima. A determination of individual mean errors for the parameters of fit give us the possibility to compare the results with available theoretical models of stellar structure. In the procedure, we have introduced a determination of preliminary elements by means of Fourier transform and extended the practical equations to terms up to the fifth power of the eccentricity. An application to the well-known case of the eclipsing binary GL Car has been made. Our analysis shows an apsidal motion period of 25.3 years with a value of 0.152 for the orbital eccentricity.  相似文献   
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Research for evaluation of geologic hazards involving earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in southern Argentina seems to have historically received little attention. Nevertheless, the relatively small work done indicates a Neogene tectonic architecture in the area with capability of generating potential hazardous earthquakes in a growing population region. Seismicity and some morphotectonic evidences of Quaternary activity of the Magallanes–Fagnano left‐lateral fault system in the transform boundary between South America and Scotia plates, are analysed in this paper. This fault system is considered to be an important seismogenic source, responsible for large earthquakes that have occurred in southern Argentina. Some examples from the South and Austral Andean Volcanic Zones are also examined in order to show recent volcanic activity which also generated crustal seismicity. Preliminary hazard estimation clearly shows the presence of both potentially active volcanic centres in southern Patagonia that may also trigger seismicity and the high probability for large crustal earthquake generation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
48.
Using a very short baseline interferometer, the relative stability of the YEBE and YEB1 GPS stations at the Yebes Observatory (Spain) is assessed. A baseline length bias of 1 mm was found between estimates from different observed frequencies due most likely to phase center errors resulting from antenna calibration uncertainties and/or phase center migrations caused by the electromagnetic coupling of antenna and monument. Also a bias of 0.5 mm in the vertical component of the baseline length was found between estimates from different cut-off elevation angles due to elevation-dependent errors as phase center and multipath. In addition to these biases, significant variations in the horizontal component of the baseline length were found, mostly in the form of a trend of ?0.45 ± 0.10 mm/yr and an annual oscillation of amplitude 1 ± 0.1 mm and phase 155 ± 5 (beginning of June). The annual oscillation showed a high correlation with ambient temperature variations. Bedrock thermal expansion seems not to be a significant contributor to the annual variation due to the excellent agreement between the phases of the baseline and temperature annual signals. Thermoelastic expansion of the station monuments, which are comprised of concrete pillars and buildings, driven by the sunshine heating, is likely the origin of this oscillation. Near-field multipath and phase center errors are also rejected as being the main contributor to the annual signal. Conversely, near-field multipath and phase center errors may significantly contribute together to the time-correlated noise content of the baseline time series at long periods (flicker noise amplitude of 1.2 ± 0.1 mm). This research provides thus an assessment of the GPS station stability at the Yebes Observatory, which may be extended to the level of station-dependent contamination of geophysical and geodetic studies (e.g., plate tectonics, surface loadings, local ties) when similar station installations on top of buildings are used.  相似文献   
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Observations made on the northern Portugal mid-shelf between May 13 and June 15,2002 were used to characterise the near-surface velocity during one upwelling season. It was found that in the surface mixed layer,the 'tidal current' was diurnal,but the tidal elevation was semi-diurnal. Both the residual current and the major axes of all tidal constituents were nearly perpendicular to the isobaths and the tidal current ellipses rotated clockwise;the major axis of the major tidal ellipse was about 3 cm s-1. The extremely strong diurnal current in the surface layer was probably due to diurnal heating,cooling,and wind mixing that induced diurnal oscillations,including the diurnal oscillation of wind stress. This is a case different from the results measured in the other layers in this area. The near-inertial spectral peaks occurred with periods ranging from 1 047 min to 1 170 min,the longest periods being observed in deeper layers,and the shortest in the surface layer. Weak inertial events appeared during strong upwelling events,while strong inertial events appeared during downwelling or weak subinertial events. The near-inertial currents were out of phase between 5 m and 35 m layers for almost the entire measurement period,but such relationship was very weak during periods of irregular weak wind. Strong persistent southerly wind blew from May 12 to 17 and forced a significant water transport onshore and established a strong barotropic poleward jet with a surface speed exceeding 20 cm s-1. The subinertial current was related to wind variation,especially in the middle layers of 15 m and 35 m,the maximum correlation between alongshore current and alongshore wind was about 0.5 at the 5 m layer and 0.8 at the 35 m layer. The alongshore current reacted more rapidly than the cross-shore current. The strongest correlation was found at a time lag of 20 h in the upper layer and of 30 h in the deeper layer. The wind-driven surface velocity obtained from the PWP model had maximum amplitude of about 7 cm s-1,corresponding to a wind stress at 0.1 Pa,and the horizontal velocity shear due to thermal wind balance had the order of 3 cm s-1. So the local wind and thermal wind would only explain a part of the strong surface velocity variations.  相似文献   
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