Climate, water management, and policy in the San Pedro Basin: results of a survey of Mexican stakeholders near the U.S.–Mexico border

This paper reviews regional climate knowledge and vulnerability in the northern Mexico San Pedro River Basin, with a focus on water quality, quantity, and management issues on the Mexican side of the border. A discussion based on the available literature is supplemented by a survey assessing concerns about water and the quality and usability of climate and hydrologic information available to water managers and communities. The surveys indicate that the central concern for urban residents is the lack of reliable potable water due to frequent service breakdowns–with climate change and variability, specifically drought and high temperatures, as contributing factors. Water managers desire appropriate meteorological and hydrologic information to improve planning strategies, but access to this information remains limited. Considerable disagreement exists about who should pay for previously free or low-cost water and wastewater treatment. Urban users have little incentive to conserve because of the present flat, low rate and frustration with service. In rural areas, while a majority of ranchers recognize that variable climate and water loss could increasingly jeopardize their lifestyle, they seldom use meteorological information in planning or modify their water consumption. Climate vulnerability also includes potential for serious environmental health issues due to the presence of heavy metals and organic contaminants in the San Pedro.     

Weathering effects on the geotechnical properties of argillaceous sediments in tropical environments and their geomorphological implications

Outcrops of young, sedimentary, argillaceous rocks with well developed fabric display rapid changes in their properties when subject to tropical weathering. The change in the materials is often accompanied by mass movement activity and the geomorphological consequence in terms of landforms is usually the development of badlands topography. Detailed field and laboratory studies have been undertaken on the Joe's River Formation, Barbados, and the Lichi Melange, Taiwan. Both are sedimentary mudrocks with well developed, scaly fabrics. Physical and geotechnical laboratory tests have been conducted on samples collected from type site locations to elucidate associations between material properties, earth surface processes and landform development. While the inherent physical properties show little or no difference in the transition from unweathered to highly weathered materials, by applying the critical state model, the mudrock geotechnical properties can be shown to change significantly. As weathering commences, material strength surprisingly increases. Only after a period of more extensive weathering do mechanical properties confirm increasingly incompetent materials. The initial strength increase appears to be due to weathering-induced modification of the fabric. The subsequent strength drop is a product of weathering-induced modification of both the fabric and the in situ, intact sediment. It is suggested that by applying the critical state model, a greater consideration can be gained of the geotechnical response of the sediments to weathering.     

The effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on seabed polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico

To assess the extent to which Hurricanes Katrina and Rita affected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), sediment cores were analyzed in late 2005 from: a shallow shelf, a deeper shelf, and a marsh station. Sediment geochronology, fabric, and geochemistry show that the 2005 storms deposited ∼10 cm of sediment to the surface of a core at 5-12A. Bulk carbon geochemistry and PAH isomers in this top layer suggest that the source of sediment to the top portion of core 5-12A was from a relatively more marine area. Particulate PAHs in the marsh core (04 M) appeared unaffected by the storms while sediments in the core from Station 5-1B (deeper shelf) were affected minimally (some possible storm-derived deposition). Substantial amounts of PAH-laden particles may have been displaced from the seabed in shallow areas of the water column in the GOM by these 2005 storms.     

Predicting sediment discharges and erosion rates in deep time—examples from the late Cretaceous North American continent

Depositional stratigraphy represents the only physical archive of palaeo-sediment routing and this limits analysis of ancient source-to-sink systems in both space and time. Here, we use palaeo-digital elevation models (palaeoDEMs; based on high-resolution palaeogeographic reconstructions), HadCM3L general circulation model climate data and the BQART suspended sediment discharge model to demonstrate a predictive, forward approach to palaeo-sediment routing system analysis. To exemplify our approach, we use palaeoDEMs and HadCM3L data to predict the configurations, geometries and climates of large continental catchments in the Cenomanian and Turonian North American continent. Then, we use BQART to estimate suspended sediment discharges and catchment-averaged erosion rates and we map their spatial distributions. We validate our estimates with published geologic constraints from the Cenomanian Dunvegan Formation, Alberta, Canada, and the Turonian Ferron Sandstone, Utah, USA, and find that estimates are consistent or within a factor of two to three. We then evaluate the univariate and multivariate sensitivity of our estimates to a range of uncertainty margins on palaeogeographic and palaeoclimatic boundary conditions; large uncertainty margins (≤50%/±5°C) still recover estimates of suspended sediment discharge within an order of magnitude of published constraints. PalaeoDEMs are therefore suitable as a first-order investigative tool in palaeo-sediment routing system analysis and are particularly useful where stratigraphic records are incomplete. We highlight the potential of this approach to predict the global spatio-temporal response of suspended sediment discharges and catchment-averaged erosion rates to long-period tectonic and climatic forcing in the geologic past.     

An equilibrium profile model for retreating marsh shorelines in southeast Louisiana

Louisiana's coastal marshes are experiencing the highest wetland loss rates in the U.S., in part due to subsidence-driven relative sea-level rise. These marshes are also vulnerable to the erosive power of wave attack: 1) on the marsh edge adjacent to open-water bodies, and 2) after the marsh platform is submerged. Marsh shorelines in Barataria Bay, Breton Sound, and the active Balize delta of southeastern Louisiana were examined in areas where the subaerial marsh platform had disappeared since 1932. Vibracore transects of marsh and adjacent bay surface sediments (to 2 m depth) were analyzed using geotechnical, stratigraphic, and radiochemical (137-Cs and 210-Pb) methods, and the subaerial-to-subaqueous transition of the marsh was mapped for elevation using standard stadia rod transit and fathometer measurements. Results indicate that marsh edge erosion of the platform takes place subaqueously until water depths of 1.5 m are reached. This is observed even in interior pond regions, but the shoreface elevation profiles are a function of fetch: exposed open bay sites display greater incision (depth and rate) of the marsh platform than protected interior bay or pond sites. Core stratigraphy reveals that the outer part of the subaqueous platform switches from erosional to depositional as retreat proceeds, covering the incised marsh deposits unconformably with estuarine shelly muds. 137-Cs and excess 210-Pb activity indicates that these muds are deposited within a few decades of subaerial marsh loss. The consistency of the cross-shore profile results suggests that a single profile of equilibrium can approximate the morphology of eroding marsh edges in southeast Louisiana: platform stratigraphy and resistance to erosion have a limited effect on profile shape. This equilibrium profile and remote sensing images of shoreline change are used to estimate the sediment yield to adjacent estuarine areas by this process. On average, 1.5 m³ of sediment are yielded per m shoreline length annually from both Barataria Bay and Breton Sound. Due to the highly organic nature of the eroded sediment (30%), this supply of organic-rich material could significantly impact estuarine productivity and hypoxia on the Louisiana continental shelf.     

History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble

We apply an established statistical methodology called history matching to constrain the parameter space of a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre Climate Model; HadCM3) by using a 10,000-member perturbed physics ensemble and observational metrics. History matching uses emulators (fast statistical representations of climate models that include a measure of uncertainty in the prediction of climate model output) to rule out regions of the parameter space of the climate model that are inconsistent with physical observations given the relevant uncertainties. Our methods rule out about half of the parameter space of the climate model even though we only use a small number of historical observations. We explore 2 dimensional projections of the remaining space and observe a region whose shape mainly depends on parameters controlling cloud processes and one ocean mixing parameter. We find that global mean surface air temperature (SAT) is the dominant constraint of those used, and that the others provide little further constraint after matching to SAT. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has a non linear relationship with SAT and is not a good proxy for the meridional heat transport in the unconstrained parameter space, but these relationships are linear in our reduced space. We find that the transient response of the AMOC to idealised CO₂ forcing at 1 and 2 % per year shows a greater average reduction in strength in the constrained parameter space than in the unconstrained space. We test extended ranges of a number of parameters of HadCM3 and discover that no part of the extended ranges can by ruled out using any of our constraints. Constraining parameter space using easy to emulate observational metrics prior to analysis of more complex processes is an important and powerful tool. It can remove complex and irrelevant behaviour in unrealistic parts of parameter space, allowing the processes in question to be more easily studied or emulated, perhaps as a precursor to the application of further relevant constraints.     

积雪对南极冰盖自动气象站气温观测影响的研究

随着冰盖表面雪的累积或消融,自动气象站(AWS)传感器相对地表的高度随之发生变化,故所记录的观测资料不能直接反映相对地表固定高度上的气象参数。为了使南极冰盖上AWS所获取的气象资料具有可靠性,在积累率对AWS观测气温影响的基础上,将东南极冰盖上中山站至DomeA断面3个AWS的连续观测气温修正到相对于雪表面的某一真实高度上。结果表明:(1)DomeA,Eagle和LGB69年平均1m气温分别为-53.19℃,-41.33℃和-26.29℃,年平均积累率分别为0.11m、0.30m和0.49m,对应的1m气温年平均修正量分别为0.34℃、0.29℃和0.35℃,2m和4m气温的年平均修正量均小于0.1℃;(2)积累率变化对离地表最近层次上的气温影响最大,越往上层影响越小;(3)气温的修正量大小与积累率并非成简单的正比关系,它与气温本身的季节变化特征以及局地近地表逆温强度有很大的关系。气温的平均修正量冬季为正,夏季修正量的正负由局地是否存在逆温决定,修正量值的大小主要由逆温强度和积累率决定。     

The ExaVolt Antenna: A large-aperture, balloon-embedded antenna for ultra-high energy particle detection

We describe the scientific motivation, experimental basis, design methodology, and simulated performance of the ExaVolt Antenna (EVA) mission, and planned ultra-high energy (UHE) particle observatory under development for NASA’s suborbital super-pressure balloon program in Antarctica. EVA will improve over ANITA’s integrated totals – the current state-of-the-art in UHE suborbital payloads – by 1–2 orders of magnitude in a single flight. The design is based on a novel application of toroidal reflector optics which utilizes a super-pressure balloon surface, along with a feed-array mounted on an inner membrane, to create an ultra-large radio antenna system with a synoptic view of the Antarctic ice sheet below it. Radio impulses arise via the Askaryan effect when UHE neutrinos interact within the ice, or via geosynchrotron emission when UHE cosmic rays interact in the atmosphere above the continent. EVA’s instantaneous antenna aperture is estimated to be several hundred m² for detection of these events within a 150–600 MHz band. For standard cosmogenic UHE neutrino models, EVA should detect of order 30 events per flight in the EeV energy regime. For UHE cosmic rays, of order 15,000 geosynchrotron events would be detected in total, several hundred above 10 EeV, and of order 60 above the GZK cutoff energy.     

Algal blooms and climate anomalies in north‐east New Zealand,August ‐December 1992

A raphidophyte‐dominated phytoplankton bloom extended discontinuously along the northeastern coastline of New Zealand, from Bream Tail, north of Leigh, to the western coast of the Coromandel Peninsula from late August until December 1992. The bloom was associated with an “El‐Niño” phase of the Southern Oscillation, resulting in unusually cold sea temperatures. The dominant bloom species in the north was Fibrocapsa japonica and in the south Heterosigma akashiwo. Associated species included the coccolithophorid Gephyrocapsa oceanica and the naked form of the silicoflagellate Dictyocha speculum. By December, numbers of the armoured form of D. speculum had increased, as those of raphidophytes and coccolithophorids declined. Bioassays to test for shellfish biotoxins were negative and Artemia salina bioassays, indicators of ichthyotoxicity, were negative except for Heterosigma akashiwo cultures, isolated from Coromandel water samples.     

The Role of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in Structuring the Nearshore Fish Community Within an Estuary of the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Artificial fertilizers are contributing to the replacement of eelgrass (Zostera marina) by sea lettuce (Ulva lactuca) in estuaries of Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada. In this study, we found that the nearshore fish community differed between areas dominated by these two vegetations within an estuary in every month sampled (April–August). Adult northern pipefish (Syngnathus fuscus), threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), blackspotted stickleback (Gasterosteus wheatlandi), and Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia) were most strongly associated with eelgrass, while mummichog (Fundulus heteroclitus), ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), and American eel (Anguilla rostrata) were often more numerous in sea lettuce. Sea lettuce stations tended to have more young-of-the-year mummichog, fourspine stickleback (Apeltes quadracus), and Gasterosteus sp. than eelgrass stations but fewer young-of-the-year northern pipefish and Atlantic silverside. Fish richness and abundance were significantly lower in the sea lettuce than eelgrass habitat during August when benthic hypoxia occurred. We conclude that the loss of eelgrass from PEI estuaries will result in significant declines in fish biodiversity.