The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest

As adaptation has come to the forefront in climate change discourse, research, and policy, it is crucial to consider the effects of how we interpret the concept. This paper draws attention to the need for interpretations that foster policies and institutions with the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. Social scientists have argued that, in practice, the standard definition of adaptation tends to prioritize economic over other values and technical over social responses, draw attention away from underlying causes of vulnerability and from the broader context in which adaptive responses take place, and exclude discussions of inequality, justice, and transformation. In this paper, we discuss an alternate understanding of adaptation, which we label “living with climate change,” that emerged from an ethnographic study of how rural residents of the U.S. Southwest understand, respond to, and plan for weather and climate in their daily lives, and we consider how it might inform efforts to develop a more comprehensive definition. The discussion brings into focus several underlying features of this lay conception of adaptation, which are crucial for understanding how adaptation actually unfolds on the ground: an ontology based on nature–society mutuality; an epistemology based on situated knowledge; practice based on performatively adjusting human activities to a dynamic biophysical and social environment; and a placed-based system of values. We suggest that these features help point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation, and one more fully informed by the understanding that we are living in the Anthropocene.     

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.     

Using analytic element models to delineate drinking water source protection areas

Since 1999, Ohio EPA hydrogeologists have used two analytic element models (AEMs), the proprietary software GFLOW and U.S. EPA's WhAEM, to delineate protection areas for 535 public water systems. Both models now use the GFLOW2001 solution engine, integrate well with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have a user-friendly graphical interface, are capable of simulating a variety of complex hydrogeologic settings, and do not rely upon a model grid. These features simplify the modeling process and enable AEMs to bridge the gap between existing simplistic delineation methods and more complex numerical models. Ohio EPA hydrogeologists demonstrated that WhAEM2000 and GFLOW2000 were capable of producing capture zones similar to more widely accepted models by applying the AEMs to eight sites that had been previously delineated using other methods. After the Ohio EPA delineated protection areas using AEMs, more simplistic delineation methods used by other states (volumetric equation and arbitrary fixed radii) were applied to the same water systems to compare the differences between various methods. GIS software and two-tailed paired t-tests were used to quantify the differences in protection areas and analyze the data. The results of this analysis demonstrate that AEMs typically produce significantly different protection areas than the most simplistic delineation methods, in terms of total area and shape. If the volumetric equation had been used instead of AEMs, Ohio would not have protected 265 km2 of critical upgradient area and would have overprotected 269 km2 of primarily downgradient land. Since an increasing number of land-use restrictions are being tied to drinking water protection areas, this analysis has broad policy implications.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Using the minimum spanning tree to trace mass segregation

We present a new method to detect and quantify mass segregation in star clusters. It compares the minimum spanning tree (MST) of massive stars with that of random stars. If mass segregation is present, the MST length of the most massive stars will be shorter than that of random stars. This difference can be quantified (with an associated significance) to measure the degree of mass segregation. We test the method on simulated clusters in both 2D and 3D and show that the method works as expected.
We apply the method to the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) and show that the method is able to detect the mass segregation in the Trapezium with a 'mass segregation ratio (MSR)'  Λ_MSR= 8.0 ± 3.5  (where  Λ_MSR= 1  is no mass segregation) down to  16 M_⊙  , and also that the ONC is mass segregated at a lower level  (∼2.0 ± 0.5)  down to  5 M_⊙  . Below  5 M_⊙  we find no evidence for any further mass segregation in the ONC.     

Verification of tropical cyclone deposits with oxygen isotope analyses of coeval ostracod valves

Reconstruction of prehistoric tropical cyclone (TC) activity often relies on the identification of distinctive overwash deposits (tempestites) in coastal lagoon sediments. Similar sediment deposits, however, can result from high-energy events other than TCs. In this study we assessed the utility of using the geochemistry of ostracod valves, specifically their stable oxygen isotope composition (δ¹⁸O), as a potential validation variable that could reduce the chances of misidentifying an overwash deposit as having been generated by a TC, when in fact it formed from another high-energy depositional process (type 1 error). We applied this technique to a sediment core recovered from Laguna Alejandro, Dominican Republic, which had already been analyzed for other sedimentary TC proxies. Negative δ¹⁸O anomalies identified in the ostracod valve stable isotope record are associated with TC deposits and are most easily explained by large influxes of ¹⁸O-depleted meteoric waters typical of intense tropical storms. There is potential for this technique to be used to identify TC landfalls that are not represented by overwash deposits. We, however, propose a more conservative approach and suggest this technique be used to validate the origin of a storm deposit and reduce the odds of a type 1 error.     

Study of Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects and Auto-conversion Processes over the West African Monsoon Region Using a Regional Climate Model

This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols(e.g., black carbon and sulfate)over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon(WAM) period(June–July–August). We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing(direct and indirect). Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng(BH), Tripoli and Cotton(TC) and Liu and Daum(R6) schemes] in Reg CM4.4.1,besides the default model's auto-conversion scheme(Kessler). Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in Reg CM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably(ranging from-5 to-25 W m~(-2)).     

Characteristics of stone covers on the surface of basalt flows in arid, northeast Jordan

Variations in the stone covers on desert surfaces have implications for the operation of hydrological processes. Some recent attention has been given to the difficulties of identifying and quantifying relevant characteristics of stone covers. Investigation of how such characteristics vary in relation to geological and topographical controls are limited. Results are presented of a field study of the characteristics of stone covers on four lithologies in the late Tertiary to Quaternary basalt plateau of northeast Jordan. Marked variations occur in clast dimensions and the characteristics of sorting between lithologies which are likely to affect hydrological response. A more subtle control, relating to slope conditions, is superimposed on the lithological differences. R- and Q-mode factor analysis identifies groupings within the data, which demonstrate the distinctiveness of different lithologies. Characteristics of the stone covers on sites affected by human occupation are markedly different from undisturbed sites on the same lithology.     

Basin‐scale methods for predicting salmonid spawning habitat via grain size and riffle spacing,tested in a California coastal drainage

Basin‐scale predictive geomorphic models for river characteristics, particularly grain size, can aid in salmonid habitat identification. However, these basin‐scale methods are largely untested with actual habitat usage data. Here, we develop and test an approach for predicting grain size distributions from high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)‐derived topographic data for a 77 km² watershed along the central California Coast. This approach improves on previous efforts in that it predicts the full grain size distribution and incorporates an empirically calibrated shear stress partitioning factor. The predicted grain size distributions are used to calculate the fraction of the bed area movable by spawning fish. We then compare the ‘movable fraction’ with 7 years of observed spawning data. We find that predicted movable fraction explains the paucity of spawning in the upper reaches of the study drainage, but does not explain variation along the mainstem. In search of another morphologic characteristic that may help explain the variation within the mainstem, we measure riffle density, a proxy for physical habitat complexity. We find that field surveys of riffle density explain 64% of the variation in spawning in these mainstem reaches, suggesting that within reaches of appropriate sized gravel, spawning density is related to riffle density. Because riffle density varies systematically with channel width, predicting riffle spacing is straightforward with LiDAR data. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the efficacy of basin‐scale spawning habitat predictions made using high‐resolution digital elevation models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.