Urban stormwater thermal gene expression models for protection of sensitive receiving streams

Thermal impact of typical high‐density residential, industrial, and commercial land uses is a major concern for the health of aquatic life in urban watersheds, especially in smaller, cold, and cool‐water streams. This is the first study of its kind that provides simple easy‐to‐use equations, developed using gene expression programming (GEP) that can guide the assessment and the design of urban stormwater management systems to protect thermally sensitive receiving streams. We developed 3 GEP models using data collected during 3 years (2009–2011) from 4 urban catchments; the first GEP model predicts event mean temperature at the inlet of the pond; the second model predicts the stormwater temperature at the outlet of the pond; and the third model predicts the temperature of the stormwater after flowing through a cooling trench and before discharging to the receiving stream. The new models have high correlation coefficients of 0.90–0.94 and low prediction uncertainty of less than 4% of the median value of the predicted runoff temperatures. Sensitivity analysis shows that climatic factors have the highest influence on the thermal enrichment followed by the catchment characteristics and the key design variables of the stormwater pond and the cooling trench. The general method presented here is easily transferable to other regions of the world (but not necessarily the exact equations developed here); also through sensitivity and parametric analysis, we gained insight on the key factors and their relative importance in modelling thermal enrichment of urban stromwater runoff.     

Modelling groundwater/surface water interaction in a managed riparian chalk valley wetland

Understanding hydrological processes in wetlands may be complicated by management practices and complex groundwater/surface water interactions. This is especially true for wetlands underlain by permeable geology, such as chalk. In this study, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE is used to simulate hydrological processes at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory, Boxford, Berkshire, UK. This comprises a 10‐ha lowland, chalk valley bottom, riparian wetland designated for its conservation value and scientific interest. Channel management and a compound geology exert important, but to date not completely understood, influences upon hydrological conditions. Model calibration and validation were based upon comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater heads and channel stages over an equally split 20‐month period. Model results are generally consistent with field observations and include short‐term responses to events as well as longer‐term seasonal trends. An intrinsic difficulty in representing compressible, anisotropic soils limited otherwise excellent performance in some areas. Hydrological processes in the wetland are dominated by the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Channel stage provides head boundaries for broad water levels across the wetland, whilst areas of groundwater upwelling control discrete head elevations. A relic surface drainage network confines flooding extents and routes seepage to the main channels. In‐channel macrophyte growth and its management have an acute effect on water levels and the proportional contribution of groundwater and surface water. The implications of model results for management of conservation species and their associated habitats are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Oxygen‐18 dynamics in precipitation and streamflow in a semi‐arid agricultural watershed,Eastern Washington,USA

Understanding flow pathways and mechanisms that generate streamflow is important to understanding agrochemical contamination in surface waters in agricultural watersheds. Two environmental tracers, δ¹⁸O and electrical conductivity (EC), were monitored in tile drainage (draining 12 ha) and stream water (draining nested catchments of 6‐5700 ha) from 2000 to 2008 in the semi‐arid agricultural Missouri Flat Creek (MFC) watershed, near Pullman Washington, USA. Tile drainage and streamflow generated in the watershed were found to have baseline δ¹⁸O value of ?14·7‰ (VSMOW) year round. Winter precipitation accounted for 67% of total annual precipitation and was found to dominate streamflow, tile drainage, and groundwater recharge. ‘Old’ and ‘new’ water partitioning in streamflow were not identifiable using δ¹⁸O, but seasonal shifts of nitrate‐corrected EC suggest that deep soil pathways primarily generated summer streamflow (mean EC 250 µS/cm) while shallow soil pathways dominated streamflow generation during winter (EC declining as low as 100 µS/cm). Using summer isotopic and EC excursions from tile drainage in larger catchment (4700‐5700 ha) stream waters, summer in‐stream evaporation fractions were estimated to be from 20% to 40%, with the greatest evaporation occurring from August to October. Seasonal watershed and environmental tracer dynamics in the MFC watershed appeared to be similar to those at larger watershed scales in the Palouse River basin. A 0·9‰ enrichment, in shallow groundwater drained to streams (tile drainage and soil seepage), of δ¹⁸O values from 2000 to 2008 may be evidence of altered precipitation conditions due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Inland Northwest. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

U–Th–Pb monazite dating and the timing of arc–continent collision in East Timor

The Timor Orogen represents one of the youngest arc–continent collisions exposed on the Earth. It has the potential to provide some of the key parameters about how this style of orogeny evolves. However, the metamorphic age of the highest-grade rocks formed in the collision remains controversial. Using U–Th–Pb dating of monazite from amphibolite-grade sillimanite and garnet-bearing schists we show the peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–4.7 Ma. The young age of the monazite and the presence of significant amounts of common Pb required the development of a new protocol to simultaneously account for the ²³⁰Th disequilibrium and the ²⁰⁷Pb common Pb correction. The new estimate of metamorphic age is consistent with the estimates based on plate reconstructions for the initiation of arc–continent collision in East Timor. The metamorphic event is a result of this collision.     

Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation

With the escalating costs of landslides, the challenge for local authorities is to develop institutional arrangements for landslide risk management that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by those affected. For this purpose, the participation of stakeholders in the decision-making process is mandated by the European Union as a way of improving its perceived legitimacy and transparency. This paper reports on an analytical-deliberative process for selecting landslide risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore in southern Italy. The process was structured as a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included a literature/media review, semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a survey eliciting residents’ views on landslide risk management. The main point of departure in the design of this process was the explicit elicitation and structuring of multiple worldviews (or perspectives) among the participants with respect to the nature of the problem and its solution. Rather than eliciting preferences using decision analytical methods (e.g. utility theory or multi-criteria evaluation), this process built on a body of research—based on the theory of plural rationality—that has teased out the limited number of contending and socially constructed definitions of problem-and-solution that are able to achieve viability. This framing proved effective in structuring participants’ views and arriving at a compromise recommendation (not, as is often aimed for, a consensus) on measures for reducing landslide risk. Experts played a unique role in this process by providing a range of policy options that corresponded to the different perspectives held by the participants.     

Continental margin syn‐rift salt tectonics at intermediate width margins

This paper examines interactions among syn‐rift continental margin extension, evaporites, particularly rocksalt (halite), deposited in the overlying sedimentary basins, and clastic sediment loading. We present dynamically evolving 2D numerical models that combine syn‐rift lithospheric extension, with salt (viscous halite, 10¹⁸–10¹⁹ Pa s) and clastic (frictional‐plastic) sediment deposition to investigate how salt is distributed and subsequently mobilized during syn‐rift extension. Example results are shown, contrasting salt deposition in the early, mid and late syn‐rift phases of a single lithospheric extension model. The lithospheric model is chosen to give depth‐dependent extension and intermediate width margins with proximal grabens and a hyperextended distal region. The models exhibit diachronous migration of extension towards the rift axis and this is reflected in the faulting of overlying sediments. The models illustrate the roles of timing of salt deposition, relative to rifting and subsequent sedimentation, in defining the location and deformation of syn‐rift salt, with post‐salt sediment progradation in some models. Late deposition of salt leads to increased lateral extent of the original salt body and decreased variation in salt thickness. Seaward flow of salt increases with later deposition; early syn‐rift salt is deposited and trapped in the grabens, whereas mid and late syn‐rift salt tends to flow towards the distal margin or even over the oceanic crust. Prograding clastic post‐salt sediments drive more substantial seaward movement of mid and late syn‐rift salt. A numerical model of the Red Sea with evaporite deposition during the mid to late syn‐rift period, preceded and followed by aggrading and prograding clastic sediment, shows reasonable agreement with observations from the central Red Sea.     

Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States

Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts.The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions;however,there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting.A data-driven model,KStar,is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations.KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function.Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO).Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States.A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases.A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast,with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models.Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899,while the observed record is used from 1900-2007.The model is evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE),root mean squared error(RMSE),RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio(RSR),Pearson’s correlation coefficient(R),NashSutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE),and linear error in probability space(LEPS) skill score(SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model.The results indicate ’good’ precipitation estimates using the KStar model.This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management.     

Tectonothermal events in the Olympic IOCG Province constrained by apatite and REE-phosphate geochronology

The Olympic iron oxide–copper–gold province in South Australia contains numerous deposits and prospects, including the Olympic Dam Cu–U–Au–Ag deposit and the Acropolis prospect. The Acropolis prospect comprises massive, coarse-grained magnetite–apatite veins partly replaced by a hematite-stable assemblage. The apatite grains in the veins contain zones with abundant inclusions of other minerals (including monazite and xenotime) and low trace-element concentrations relative to the inclusion-free zones. The inclusion-rich apatite zones are interpreted to be formed from the recrystallisation of the inclusion-free apatite and remobilisation of U, Th and rare earth element (REE) from apatite into monazite and xenotime. Apatite, monazite and xenotime are all established U–Th–Pb geochronometers and offer the potential to constrain the alteration history of the Acropolis prospect. The LA-ICPMS U–Pb age of inclusion-free apatite is within error of the age of the host volcanic units (ca 1.59 Ga). Inclusion-rich apatite yields both near-concordant analyses that are within error of the inclusion-free apatite as well as highly disturbed (discordant) analyses. The most concordant analyses of monazite (Th–Pb) inclusions and xenotime (U–Pb) inclusions and rim grains indicate an alteration event occurred at ca 1.37 Ga and possibly also at ca 500 Ma. The disparity in age of the inclusion-rich apatite and the REE-phosphate inclusions (and rim grains) is suggested to be owing to the apatite being initially recrystallised at ca 1.59 Ga and modified again by a later event that also formed (or coarsened) most of the inclusions. Partial resetting of the majority of the monazite inclusions as well as the presence of significant amounts of common Pb has complicated the interpretation of the monazite results. In contrast, xenotime is a more robust geochronometer in this setting. The ages of the two post-1.59 Ga events that appear to have affected the Acropolis prospect do not correspond to any events known to have occurred in the Gawler Craton. The earlier (ca 1.37 Ga) age instead corresponds best with metamorphic–magmatic–hydrothermal activity in Laurentia, consistent with the proximity of Laurentia and the Gawler Craton inferred from palaeogeographic reconstructions. The later (ca 500 Ma) event corresponds to the Delamerian Orogeny and has been shown by prior studies to have also affected the Olympic Dam deposit.