The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for ‘present’ climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea–ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within the climatic system, the inability of the model to reproduce the observed hemispheric mean temperature anomalies associated with these events indicates that external forcing must have been involved. Essentially the unforced climatic system is unable to sustain the generation of long-term climatic anomalies.     

Comparison of TL multiple aliquot, single grain GLSL SAR and C-14 ages for the Puritjarra, Australia, rock shelter

We report single-grain quartz luminescence ages for the Puritjarra rock shelter, with the aim of resolving an apparent discrepancy between ages obtained by ¹⁴C and a variety of luminescence methods, previously reported. Ages now found at all depths to 75 cm (ages to 30 ka) can be interpreted as largely resolving the differences. This implied caveat arises because single-grain methods are statistically inefficient. As a consequence, a degree of interpretation is inevitable in analysing the data. The emphasis in the present paper is an analysis making use of weighted histograms. The measurements by single grain OSL and ¹⁴C, including ABOX–SC, taken together, can be regarded as compatible. They indicate human occupation of the Puritjarra rock shelter at least as early as 30 ka BP.     

The initial responses of hot liquid water released under low atmospheric pressures: Experimental insights

Experiments have been performed to simulate the shallow ascent and surface release of water and brines under low atmospheric pressure. Atmospheric pressure was treated as an independent variable and water temperature and vapor pressure were examined as a function of total pressure variation down to low pressures. The physical and thermal responses of water to reducing pressure were monitored with pressure transducers, temperature sensors and visible imaging. Data were obtained for pure water and for solutions with dissolved NaCl or CO₂. The experiments showed the pressure conditions under which the water remained liquid, underwent a rapid phase change to the gas state by boiling, and then solidified because of removal of latent heat. Liquid water is removed from phase equilibrium by decompression. Solid, liquid and gaseous water are present simultaneously, and not at the 611 Pa triple point, because dynamic interactions between the phases maintain unstable temperature gradients. After phase changes stop, the system reverts to equilibrium with its surroundings. Surface and shallow subsurface pressure conditions were simulated for Mars and the icy satellites of the outer Solar System. Freezing by evaporation in the absence of wind on Mars is shown to be unlikely for pure water at pressures greater than c. 670 Pa, and for saline solutions at pressures greater than c. 610 Pa. The physical nature of ice that forms depends on the salt content. Ice formed from saline water at pressures less than c. 610 Pa could be similar to terrestrial sea ice. Ice formed from pure water at pressures less than c. 100 Pa develops a low thermal conductivity and a ‘honeycomb’ structure created by sublimation. This ice could have a density as low as c. 450 kg m⁻³ and a thermal conductivity as low as 1.6 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹, and is highly reflective, more akin to snow than the clear ice from which it grew. The physical properties of ice formed from either pure or saline water at low pressures will act to reduce the surface temperature, and hence rate of sublimation, thereby prolonging the lifespan of any liquid water beneath.     

Use of the L2C signal for inversions of GPS radio occultation data in the neutral atmosphere

Results from processing FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultations (RO) with the new GPS L2C signal acquired both in phase locked loop (PLL) and open loop (OL) modes are presented. Analysis of L2P, L2C, and L1CA signals acquired in PLL mode shows that in the presence of strong ionospheric scintillation not only L2P tracking, but also L1CA tracking often fails, while L2C tracking is most stable. The use of L2C improves current RO processing in the neutral atmosphere mainly by increasing the number of processed occultations (due to significant reduction in the number of L2 tracking failures) and marginally by a reduction in noise in statistics. The latter is due to the combination of reduced L2C noise (compared to L2P) and increased L1CA noise in those occultations where L2P would have failed. This result suggests application of OL tracking for L1CA and L2C signals throughout an entire occultation to optimally acquire RO data. Two methods of concurrent processing of L1CA and L2C RO signals are considered. Based on testing of individual occultations, these methods allow: (1) reduction in uncertainty of bending angles retrieved by wave optics in the lower troposphere and (2) reduction in small-scale residual errors of the ionospheric correction in the stratosphere.     

Fiji’s fisheries: their contribution to development and their future

The industrial fisheries of Fiji have had mixed fortunes. The fresh fish export industry has grown rapidly in importance so that fisheries is now the third most valuable export industry; its positive effect on the economy is mainly in the increase in the purchase of goods and services, such as air freight. The present ‘hands off’ policy by government in the fresh fish export industry should continue until the industry matures. In the longer run, ad valorem royalties should be considered as a mean of capturing resource rents. The government-owned export cannery has been in financial decline, and the maintenance of the social benefits of regional employment generated by the cannery has come at a high cost to government coffers. The future of the cannery, now leased to a private operator, is clouded by the uncertainty of the continuity of concessional access to European markets beyond the year 2000. The main task faced by government is the management of fisheries and fish stocks. The management of the inshore fisheries — vital to the needs of a large proportion of the population — needs additional resources. The capability for management of the industrial fisheries, necessary to maximise long term public benefits, would be enhanced by full cost recovery through a user pays policy. This article is based on a paper presented to the Fiji Update seminar, held at the National Centre for Development Studies, the Australian National University, Canberra, on 19 June 1998. The author wishes to thank Mr Krishna Swamy, Senior Fisheries Officer in the Fiji Fisheries Division, and Mr Grahame Southwick, Managing Director of the Fiji Fish Company Ltd, for their generous provision of information for the preparation of this paper; and Mr Joeli Veitayaki, Coordinator of the Ocean Resources Management Programme, University of the South Pacific, for helpful comments. Any errors or omissions are the author’s responsibility, however.