An interface-condition substitution strategy for theoretical study of dissolution-timescale reactive infiltration instability in fluid-saturated porous rocks

A theoretical study of reactive infiltration instability is conducted on the dissolution timescale. In the present theoretical study, the transient behavior of a dissolution-timescale reactive infiltration system needs to be considered, so that the upstream region of the chemical dissolution front should be finite. In addition, the chemical dissolution front of finite thickness should be considered on the dissolution timescale. Owing to these different considerations, it is very difficult, even in some special cases, to derive the first-order perturbation solutions of the reactive infiltration system on the dissolution timescale. To overcome this difficulty, an interface-condition substitution strategy is proposed in this paper. The basic idea behind the proposed strategy is that although the first-order perturbation equations in the downstream region cannot be directly solved in a purely mathematical manner, they should hold at the planar reference front, which is the interface between the upstream region and the downstream region. This can lead to two new equations at the interface. The main advantage of using the proposed interface-condition substitution strategy is that through using the original interface conditions as a bridge, the perturbation solutions for the dimensionless acid concentration, dimensionless Darcy velocity, and their derivatives involved in the two new equations at the interface can be evaluated just by using the obtained analytical solutions in the upstream region. The proposed strategy has been successfully used to derive the dimensionless growth rate, which is the key issue associated with the theoretical study of dissolution-timescale reactive infiltration instability in fluid-saturated porous rocks.     

The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.     

Spin vectors in the Koronis family: II. Additional clustered spins, and one stray

We recorded 101 new rotation lightcurves of five Koronis family members, and then combined the new observations with previous data to determine the objects' sidereal rotation periods, spin vector orientations, and model shape solutions. The observing program was tailored specifically for spin vector analyses by determining single-apparition Lumme–Bowell solar phase coefficients, and by measuring synodic rotation periods precisely enough to unambiguously count the rotations between two consecutive oppositions, which is a prerequisite for identifying the correct sidereal period. The new data make possible first pole and shape determinations for (263) Dresda, (462) Eriphyla, and (1289) Kutaïssi, and they improve the models for (277) Elvira and (534) Nassovia, two objects previously studied by Slivan et al. [Slivan, S.M., Binzel, R.P., Crespo da Silva, L.D., Kaasalainen, M., Lyndaker, M.M., Kr?o, M., 2003. Icarus 162, 285–307]. Our results increase the number of Koronis family spin vectors reported in the literature to fourteen, a sample which now includes the seven largest family members. The spin properties of Eriphyla (rotation period , spin vector obliquity ε=51°) and Kutaïssi (P=3.62 h, ε=165°) are consistent with the markedly nonrandom distribution reported by Slivan [Slivan, S.M., 2002. Nature 419, 49–51], and explained by Vokrouhlický et al. [Vokrouhlický, D., Nesvorný, D., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Nature 425, 147–151] as the result of the effects of thermal “YORP” torques combined with solar and planetary gravitational torques. Dresda (P=16.81 h, ε=16°) is the first prograde Koronis member whose spin obliquity and spin rate significantly differ from the clustered spin properties previously found for other prograde Koronis members; nevertheless, its spin vector is consistent with several of the spin evolution possibilities that were identified in the YORP modeling.     

Risk perception bias, self-reporting of illness, and the validity of reported results in an epidemiologic study of recreational water associated illnesses

Epidemiologic studies of water associated illness often have to rely on self-reported symptoms of the outcome illness(es) under study. Individual participant's perception of risk, in theory, can affect the validity of self-reported symptoms. The magnitude and effect of possible "risk perception bias" was evaluated as part of a series of randomized trials designed to assess infectious disease transmission via exposure to marine recreational waters with modest sewage contamination. All study subjects were blinded to both their individual indices of exposure and the outcome illnesses under study. Of the five outcome illnesses studied, the effect of "risk perception bias" only effected one: skin ailments. Although analysis of crude rates of skin ailments showed the exposed group (bathers) to be 3.5 times more likely to report skin ailments relative to the non-exposed (non-bathers), when the data was stratified by any perceived health risk of bathing in such waters, this association was shown to be spurious in nature. Bathers having pre-conceived notions of any health risk due to the exposure were 10.63 times more likely to report skin ailments relative to the unexposed (non-bathers) (95% CI 2.36-47.8, P = 0.0002), while bathers without any pre-conceived notion of risk were no more likely to report skin ailments relative to non-bathers (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.11-3.24, P = 0.71). Further stratification by exposure grouping showed bathers with pre-conceived notions of excess risk to be 4.78 times more likely to report skin ailments relative to bathers without any notion of excess risk (95% CI 1.04-21.86, P = 0.03), while among non-bathers those with pre-conceived notions of risk were 3.70 times less likely to report skin ailments relative to non-bathers without any pre-conceived notion of risk (95% CI 0.70-19.60, P = 0.10). This study shows that "risk perception bias" can be strong enough to lead to spurious associations in the presence of self-reported symptoms, and should be controlled for in future epidemiologic studies of recreational water associated illnesses and other water associated environmental exposures where the use of self-reported symptoms cannot be avoided.     

Climate change scenarios and long term projections

Predictions of future temperature increases depend critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken. This paper explores a range of methodological issues surrounding projecting greenhouse emissions over the next century. It points out that understanding future emissions requires a framework that deals with the sources of economic growth and allows for endogenous structural change. It also explores the role of convergence assumptions and the “Castles and Henderson Critique” of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) regarding use of Market Exchange Rates (MERs) rather than Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates (PPPs) to benchmark income differentials in the world economy. In the G-Cubed multi-country model, we show that emission projections based on convergence assumptions defined in MER terms, are 40% higher by 2100 than emissions generated using a PPP comparison of income differentials between economies. We support the argument presented by Castles and Henderson, that the use of MERs in the SRES represents a serious analytical error. It is not clear what this means for the SRES projections because the SRES is not transparent in its assumptions. In the G-Cubed model, the error leads to considerably higher emissions projections.     

Climate change and river flooding: part 1 classifying the sensitivity of British catchments

Effective national and regional policy guidance on climate change adaptation relies on robust scientific evidence. This two-part series of papers develops and implements a novel scenario-neutral framework enabling an assessment of the vulnerability of flood flows in British catchments to climatic change, to underpin the development of guidance for the flood management community. In this first part, the sensitivity of the 20-year return period flood peak (RP20) to changes in precipitation (P), temperature (T) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) is systematically assessed for 154 catchments. A sensitivity domain of 4,200 scenarios is applied combining 525 and 8 sets of P and T/PE mean monthly changes, respectively, with seasonality incorporated using a single-phase harmonic function. Using the change factor method, the percentage change in RP20 associated with each scenario of the sensitivity domain is calculated, giving flood response surfaces for each catchment. Using a clustering procedure on the response surfaces, the 154 catchments are divided into nine groups: flood sensitivity types. These sensitivity types show that some catchments are (very) sensitive to changes in P but others buffer the response, while the location of catchments of the same type does not show any strong geographical pattern. These results reflect the range of hydrological processes found in Britain, and demonstrate the potential importance of catchment properties (physical and climatic) in the propagation of change in climate to change in floods, and so in characterising the sensitivity types (covered in the companion paper).     

Triggering transformative change: a development path approach to climate change response in communities

While climate change action plans are becoming more common, it is still unclear whether communities have the capacity, tools, and targets in place to trigger the transformative levels of change required to build fundamentally low-carbon, resilient, healthy communities. Evidence increasingly supports the finding that this transformation is not triggered by climate policy alone, but rather is shaped by a broad array of decisions and practices that are rooted in underlying patterns of development. Even so, these findings have rarely penetrated the domain of practice, which often remains squarely focused on a relatively narrow set of climate-specific policies. This article builds a conceptual framework for understanding the dynamics of community-level development path transformations that may both dramatically reduce GHG emissions and significantly enhance community resilience. This framework illuminates eight critical enablers of innovation on climate change, each of which is illustrated by compelling examples of community-level experimentation on climate change across the province of British Columbia, Canada. It is concluded that community-based climate (or sustainability) policy might be more likely to trigger development path shifts if it employs a longer time horizon, recognition of adaptability and feedbacks, integrated decision making, and systems thinking.     

Distribution, magnitude and characterization of the toxicity of Ukrainian estuarine sediments

During the Soviet era, Ukraine was an important industrial and agricultural region of the Soviet Union. This industrial and agricultural activity resulted in contamination of Ukraine’s estuaries with legacy anthropogenic pollutants. Investigations on the toxicological effects of this estuarine contamination have been limited. For this research, we measured the toxicity of contaminated sediments from four Ukrainian estuaries to several aquatic organisms over 3 years. Sediment chemical analyses and whole sediment toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs) were also performed to determine the classes of contaminants contributing to toxicity. Toxic sediments were observed in several of the Ukrainian estuaries and chemical analyses of the sediments demonstrated anthropogenic contaminants were widely distributed. Contaminants were also detected in macrobenthic organisms collected from the sediments. Several lines of evidence, including TIEs, indicated hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) were contributing substantially to observed toxicity. This information can guide environmental managers to prioritize portions of the estuaries requiring remediation.     

The pressure and temperature stability limits of lawsonite: implications for H2O recycling in subduction zones

The stability relations of lawsonite, CaAl₂Si₂O₇(OH)₂H₂O, have been investigated at pressures of 6 to 14 GPa and temperatures of 740 to 1150°C in a multi-anvil apparatus. Experiments used the bulk composition lawsonite+H₂O to determine the maximum stability of lawsonite. Lawsonite is stable on its own bulk composition to a pressure of 13.5 GPa at 800°C, and between 6.5 and 12 GPa at 1000°C. Its composition does not change with pressure or temperature. All lawsonite reactions have grossular, vapour and two other phases in the system Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O (ASH) on their high-temperature side. A Schreinemakers analysis of the ASH phases was used to relate the reactions to each other. At the lowest pressures studied lawsonite breaks down to grossular+kyanite+coesite+vapour in a reaction passing through 980°C at 6 GPa and 1070°C at 9 GPa. Above 9 GPa the reactions coesite=stishovite and kyanite+vapour=topaz-OH are crossed. The maximum thermal stability of lawsonite is at 1080°C, at 9.4 GPa. At higher pressures the lawsonite breakdown reactions have negative slopes. The reaction lawsonite=grossular+topaz-OH+stishovite+vapour passes through 1070°C at 10 GPa and 1010°C at 12 GPa. At 14 GPa, 740–840°C, lawsonite is unstable relative to the assemblage grossular+diaspore+vapour+a hydrous phase with an Al:Si ratio of 1:1. Oxide totals in electron microprobe analyses suggest that the composition of this phase is AlSiO₃(OH). Two experiments on the bulk composition lawsonite+pyrope [Mg₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂] show that at 10 GPa the reaction lawsonite=Gr-Py_ss+topaz-OH+stishovite+vapour is displaced down temperature from the end-member reaction by 200°C for a garnet composition of Gr₂₀Py₈₀. Calculations suggest similar temperature displacements for reaction between lawsonite and Gr-Py-Alm garnets of compositions likely to occur in high-pressure eclogites. Temperatures in subduction zones remain relatively low to considerable depth, and therefore slab P-T paths can be within the stability field of lawsonite from the conditions of its crystallisation in blueschists and eclogites, up to pressures of at least 10 GPa. Lawsonite contains 11.5 wt% H₂O, which when released may trigger partial melting of the slab or mantle, or be incorporated in hydrous phases such as the aluminosilicates synthesised here. These phases may then transport H₂O to an even greater depth in the mantle.     

Pocho volcanic rocks and the melting of depleted continental lithosphere above a shallowly dipping subduction zone in the central Andes

The Late Miocene (7.9 to 4.5 Ma) Pocho volcanic field in Argentina occurs 700 km east of the Chile trench over the modern shallowly dipping Andean Wadati-Benioff zone near 32° S latitude in Argentina. The field is located in the Sierra de Cordoba which is the easternmost Laramide-style, block-faulted range in the Sierras Pampeanas (Pampean ranges). The arrival of the shallowly dipping slab initiated both volcanism and the uplift of the Sierra de Cordoba. Pocho rocks (52% to 68% SiO₂; FeO^*/MgO>2.2) comprise an older (7.5±0.5 Ma) high-K and a younger (5.3±0.7 Ma) shoshonitic series. Mineralogic data and fractionation models show that crystallization occurred under hydrous, oxidizing conditions, which were most extreme in the high-K series. An unusual pattern of successively lower REE at higher SiO₂ concentrations can be modeled by sphene, apatite and amphibole removal. An arc-like trace element signature attributed to an arc component is strongest in the younger shoshonitic series. An important depleted lower crustal/mantle lithospheric source component in both series is indicated by non-radiogenic Sr and Pb isotopic ratios at _Nd= 0 to + 2, low Rb/Sr ratios, and low U and Th concentrations. This depleted signature contrasts with the enriched one in potassic back-arc Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) lavas over the steeper subduction zone to the north and is attributed to several processes in the shallow subduction zone. First, deep crustal (MASH) processes in the nearly normal thickness crust beneath Pocho incorporated depleted Proterozoic basement components, and not complexly mixed structurally thickened crustal components as in the CVZ. Second, the association of Pocho volcanism with the arrival of the slab allowed little time for modification of the mantle by subduction components. Third, Miocene shallowing of the subduction zone beneath the flat-slab required thinning of both the astenosphere and the subcontinental lithosphere. Thus, an important subcrustal component could be from blocks removed from the base of the lithosphere to the west and recycled into the asthenosphere. Similar magmatic sources would have existed during Laramide shallow subduction in western North America.Deceased