Robust quantification of parametric uncertainty for surfactant–polymer flooding

Uncertainty in surfactant–polymer flooding is an important challenge to the wide-scale implementation of this process. Any successful design of this enhanced oil recovery process will necessitate a good understanding of uncertainty. Thus, it is essential to have the ability to quantify this uncertainty in an efficient manner. Monte Carlo simulation is the traditional uncertainty quantification approach that is used for quantifying parametric uncertainty. However, the convergence of Monte Carlo simulation is relatively low, requiring a large number of realizations to converge. This study proposes the use of the probabilistic collocation method in parametric uncertainty quantification for surfactant–polymer flooding using four synthetic reservoir models. Four sources of uncertainty were considered: the chemical flood residual oil saturation, surfactant and polymer adsorption, and the polymer viscosity multiplier. The output parameter approximated is the recovery factor. The output metrics were the input–output model response relationship, the probability density function, and the first two moments. These were compared with the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation over a large number of realizations. Two methods for solving for the coefficients of the output parameter polynomial chaos expansion are compared: Gaussian quadrature and linear regression. The linear regression approach used two types of sampling: full-tensor product nodes and Chebyshev-derived nodes. In general, the probabilistic collocation method was applied successfully to quantify the uncertainty in the recovery factor. Applying the method using the Gaussian quadrature produced more accurate results compared with using the linear regression with full-tensor product nodes. Applying the method using the linear regression with Chebyshev derived sampling also performed relatively well. Possible enhancements to improve the performance of the probabilistic collocation method were discussed. These enhancements include improved sparse sampling, approximation order-independent sampling, and using arbitrary random input distribution that could be more representative of reality.     

Quantification of methane emission from bacterial mat sites at Quepos Slide offshore Costa Rica

Seafloor methane emission from the Quepos Slide on the submarine segment of the Costa Rica fore-arc margin was estimated by extrapolating flux measurements from individual seeps to the total area covered by bacterial mats. This approach is based on the combination of detailed mapping to determine the abundance of seeps and the application of a numerical model to estimate the amount of benthic methane fluxes. Model results suggest that the majority of the studied seeps transport rather limited amount of methane (on average: ~177 μmol cm^?2 a^?1) into the water column due to moderate upward advection, allowing for intense anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM; on average: 53 % of the methane flux is consumed). Depth-integrated AOM rates (56–1,538 μmol CH₄ cm^?2 a^?1) are comparable with values reported from other active seep sites. The overall amount of dissolved methane released into the water column from the entire area covered by bacterial mats on the Quepos Slide is estimated to be about 0.28 × 10⁶ mol a^?1. This conservative estimate which relies on rather accurate determinations of seafloor methane fluxes emphasizes the potential importance of submarine slides as sites of natural methane seepage; however, at present the global extent of methane seepage from submarine slides is largely unknown.     

Using artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of collapse settlements of sandy gravels

Collapse settlement is one of the main geotechnical hazards, which should be controlled during first impoundment stage in embankment dams. Imposing large deformations and significant damages to dams makes it an important phenomenon, which should be checked during design phases. Also, existence of a variety of contributing parameters in this phenomenon makes it difficult and complicated to well predict the potential of collapse settlement. Thus, artificial neural networks, which are commonly applied by majority of geotechnical engineers in predicting various perplexing problems, can be efficiently used to calculate the value of collapse settlement. In this paper, feedforward backpropagation neural networks are considered. And three-layered FFBPNNs with the architectures of 4–6–2 and 4–9–2 accurately predicted the coefficient of stress release and collapse settlement value, respectively. These networks were trained using 180 datasets gained from large-scale direct shear test, which were carried out on gravel materials. High correlation between measured and predicted values for both collapse settlement and coefficient of stress release can be easily understood from the coefficient of determination and root mean square error. It is shown that sand content and normal stress applied to the specimens, respectively, are most effective parameters on the collapse settlement value and coefficient of stress release.     

Arsenic in groundwater,Quaternary sediments,and suspended river sediments from the Middle Gangetic Plain,India: distribution,field relations,and geomorphological setting

A groundwater arsenic (As) survey in Mirzapur, Varanasi, Ghazipur, Ballia, Buxar, Ara, Patna, and Vaishali districts of UP and Bihar shows that people from these districts are drinking As-contaminated groundwater (max. 1,300 μg/l). About 66 % of tubewells from Buxar to Mirzapur areas and 89 % of tubewells from Patna to Ballia areas have As?>?10 μg/l (WHO guideline). Moreover, 36 % of tubewells from Buxar to Mirzapur areas and 50 % of tubewells from Patna to Ballia areas have As above 50 μg/l. Most of the As-affected villages are located close to abandoned or present meander channels of the Ganga River. In contrast, tubewells located in Mirzapur, Chunar, Varanasi, Saidpur, Ghazipur, Muhammadabad, Ballia, Buxar, Ara, Chhapra, Patna, and Hazipur towns are As-safe in groundwater because of their positions on the Pleistocene Older Alluvium upland surfaces. The iron (Fe) content in tubewell water samples varies from 0.1 to 12.93 mg/l. About 77 % As-contaminated tubewells are located within the depth of 21 to 40 m in the Holocene Newer Alluvium aquifers. The potential source of As in sediments carried through the rivers from the Himalayas. Maximum As concentrations in the Older and Newer Alluvium sediments are 13.73 and 30.91 mg/kg, respectively. The Himalayas rivers, i.e. Yamuna, Ganga, Gomati, Ghaghara, Gondak, Buri Gandak, and Kosi rivers carrying suspended sediments have high content of As (max. 10.59 mg/kg).     

Palynological evidences on paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes during Holocene of Al-Hussaynia District,Central Iraq

This paper is concerned with the study of paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes of Hussaynia township which is located in Karbala at the center of the Mesopotamian plain during Holocene. Ten soil samples were examined to determine their content of pollens, spores, and marine organisms (dinoflagellates). These palynomorphs include: Graminidites, Palmaepollenites, Chenopodiaceae, Composita, Cyperaceae, Sphaginum sporites, Pinus pollenites, Convovolus, Artimesia, Laevigatosporites, Quercus, dinoflagellates, and fungi. The study revealed climatic and environmental changes in the area during Holocene and four climatic zones were determined in the studied sequence and correlated with other areas in and outside of Iraq. The climate was pluvial with intervening dry periods in the 10000 years?bp. The study indicated as well, some marine effects on the studied area on the commencement of Holocene due to the global transgression. This is based on the presence of marine organisms, dinoflagellate.     

Palaeoenvironments of the Continental Intercalaire fossil from the Late Cretaceous (Barremian-Albian) in North Africa: a case study of southern Tunisia

Through the Late Cretaceous, the southern shore of the Tethys Ocean migrated north and south over short distances. These vicissitudes are documented in the Continental Intercalaire, a long series of mainly non-marine sediments deposited in which dinosaur or other reptiles tracks and floral fossils are common across southern Tunisia (North Africa). A combined taxonomic, climatological, and palaentological studies provides independent lines of evidence for reconstruction of palaeoenvironments. The Bou Hedma/Boulouha and Sidi Aïch/Douiret Formations from southern Tunisia span the later part of the Late Cretaceous. During the Late Cretaceous the Tunisian territory was an archipelago, thus a particularly suitable area for a more detailed study. We investigated the area’s plant palaeo-biogeography, using fossil wood, with information from both a literature survey and investigation of new samples. The presence of fossils at great depths and distances from the present coastline, without signs of abrasion and far from areas of fluvial discharges does indicate that these remains have not been transported from the continent to the shelf, but have been preserved directly on the area that today correspond to the continental shelf. The climate during the accumulation of Barremian-Albian deposits in this region is inferred to have been warm and humid.     

Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County,Guilan, Iran

Urban growth models (UGM) as regional planning tools are of great interest for quantitative analysis of urban complex systems. In this study, the SLEUTH UGM has been calibrated through a sequential multistage automated method to derive the pattern of urban growth in Rasht County from 1975 up to year 2011. Evaluation of model goodness of fit confirms that the model is adjusted properly to the area under investigation. Four growth rules of spontaneous, new spreading center, edge and road influenced growth as well as five coefficients of diffusion, breed, spread, road gravity and slope resistance are responsible to detect quantitative aspects of urban dynamics from control years. According to the results, successive improvement of the model parameters during the calibration mode indicates applicability of the model for forecasting of future urban growth mechanism until the year 2050. Accordingly, two growth scenarios were developed mainly with the aim of investigating the coefficients’ role in controlling the nature of urban dynamics. In this concern, the spread and road gravity coefficients’ value, as two major driving forces of urban sprawl in the study area were reduced to dictate compact and infill growth, compared to their original values derived from calibration for historical prediction. Comparison between two forecasted scenarios indicates insignificant difference in total amount of the urban area, which denotes there is a threshold to urbanization and the current trend of urban growth could not be maintained. Finally, we conclude that Rasht County with considerable industrial and agricultural attractions, will witness noticeable expansion from 20,310 ha in 2011, up to 34,745 ha in 2050, accounting to 71 % increase in total area of manmade surfaces.     

Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan

Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan.     

Scleractinian coral communities of Hormuz Island in the Persian Gulf

The abundance and health of scleractinian coral communities of Hormuz Island were investigated. For this purpose, we employed 20 m line intercept transects—12 in the intertidal zone and 15 subtidally to evaluate coral cover and community composition. The estimated dead coral coverage was 6.21%±0.81%, while live coral coverage was 16.93%±1.81%, considered as very poor. Totally, 12 genera were recorded, of which Porites with 11.9%±1.4% live cover was the dominant, while Goniopora had the least cover (0.07%±0.08%). Based on Mann-Whitney U-test, live coral coverage, dead coral coverage, algal coverage, cover of other benthic organisms and abiotic components showed significant univariate differences between zones (p<0.05). The Spearman correlation test between the abundance of biotic and abiotic components indicated significant negative correlation of live coral and sand with zoantharian and significant positive correlation of algae and other benthic organisms with rubble. The reef health indices used for the corals indicated that, in general, the environmental conditions were not suitable, which could be attributed to both natural and anthropogenic factors, the most important of which was zoantharian’ overgrowth on the scleractinian corals in this region.     

The role of short-wave troughs on the formation and development of sea-effect snowbands in the western Black Sea

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The short waves (less than 6000&nbsp;km) embedded within the long waves and the resulting short-wave troughs have an effect on the sea-effect snow (SES)....