Raingauge network optimization in a tropical urban area by coupling cross-validation with the geostatistical technique

An adequate and reliable raingauge network is essential for observing rainfall data in hydrology and water resource applications. A raingauge network developed for a catchment area is commonly extended periodically to increase data accuracy. Due to financial constraints, the network is reviewed for the optimal number of stations. A new optimization approach is developed in this study by coupling a cross-validation technique with a geostatistical method for raingauge network optimization to prioritize raingauge stations. The spatial interpolation error of the spatial rainfall distribution, measured as the root mean square error (E_rms) optimization criterion is applied to a raingauge network in a tropical urban area. The results indicate that this method can successfully optimize the number of rainfall stations in an existing raingauge network, as the stations are prioritized based on their importance in the network.     

Geo-Spatial Dynamics of Snow Cover and Hydro-Meteorological Parameters of Hunza Basin,HKH Region,Pakistan

Water Resources - Snow cover dynamics play an important role in the hydrological characteristics of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan in terms of seasonal accumulation and depletions. The current...     

Investigation of Groundwater Potential Zones in Hard Rock Terrain,Wadi Na'man,Saudi Arabia

In arid and hyper-arid zones, groundwater exploration is one of the most significant ways to locate potential new water supplies. Geophysical prospecting is currently the most successfully used method for locating new supplies, but it is rather costly. Satellite remote sensing (RS) detection, however, with its integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provides the best chance for identifying and initially evaluating water-bearing formations. In the western part of Saudi Arabia, Wadi Na'man has for centuries been one of the major water sources for the city of Makkah Al-Mukarramah. It is therefore very important to find appropriate groundwater potential (GP) zones in this wadi for water supply. This study utilizes RS and GIS techniques, and also studies the hydrogeological, geological, and geomorphological characteristics that have significant impact on groundwater occurrence in Wadi Na'man. Representative layers are generated for each component and each given a weight ratio that depends on the level of influence. The overlay and integration of these thematic layers was used to produce a map that shows the most promising potential groundwater areas and classifies local potentials as either low, medium, or high. The results also reveal that the areas overall-rated as “promising” (i.e., classified as medium or high) represent approximately 17-25% of the total basin area and consist mainly of Quaternary sediments and connected fractured rock areas.     

Mineral chemistry and petrogenesis of chromitites from the Khoy ophiolite complex,Northwestern Iran: Implications for aggregation of two ophiolites

The Khoy ophiolitic complex in Northwestern Iran is a part of the Tethyan ophiolite belt, and is divided into two sections: the Eastern ophiolite in Qeshlaq and Kalavanes (Jurassic–Cretaceous) and the Western ophiolite in Barajouk, Chuchak and Hessar (Late Cretaceous). Our chromitites can be clearly classified into two groups: high‐Al chromitites (Cr# = 0.38–0.44) from the Eastern ophiolite, and high‐Cr chromitites (Cr# = 0.54–0.72) from the Western ophiolite. The chromian spinels in high‐Al chromitite include primary mineral inclusions mainly as Na‐bearing diopside and pargasite with subordinate rutile and their formation was probably related to reaction between a MORB (mid‐ocean‐ridge basalt)‐like melt with depleted harzburgite, possibly in a back‐arc setting. Their host harzburgites contain clinopyroxene with higher contents of Al₂O₃, Na₂O, Cr₂O₃, and TiO₂ relative to Western harzburgites and are possibly residue after moderate partial melting (~15 %) whereas the Western harzburgite is residue after high partial melting (~25 %). The chromian spinel in the Western Khoy chromitites contains inclusions such as clinopyroxene, olivine and platinum group mineral‐bearing sulfides. These Western chromitites were possibly formed at two stages during arc growth and are divided into the moderately high‐Cr# chromitites (Barajouk and Hessar) and the high‐Cr# chromitites (Chuchak A and C). The former crystallized from island‐arc‐tholeiite (IAT) melts during reaction with the host depleted harzburgites, whereas the latter crystallized from boninitic melts (second stage melt) during reaction with highly depleted harzburgite in a supra‐subduction‐zone environment. Based on the mineral chemistry of chromian spinels, pyroxenes, and mineral inclusions, the chromitites and the host peridotites from the Eastern and Western Khoy ophiolites were formed in a back‐arc basin and arc‐related setting, respectively. The Khoy ophiolitic complex is a tectonic aggregate of the two different ophiolites formed in two different tectonic settings at different ages.     

Study of seismicity in the NW Himalaya and adjoining regions using IMS network

The Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) of the International Data Center (IDC) has been used in order to investigate the seismicity of the Northwest Himalaya and its neighboring region for the time period June 1999 to March 2015 within the geographical coordinates 25–40° N latitude and 65–85° E longitude. We have used a very precisely located earthquake dataset recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS) Network containing 7,583 events with body wave magnitudes from 2.5 to 6.3. The study area has been subdivided into six regions based on the Flinn-Engdahl (F-E) seismic and geographical regionalization scheme, which was used as the region classifications of the International Data Center catalog. The examined region includes NW India, Pakistan, Nepal, Xizang, Kashmir, and Hindukush. For each region, Magnitudes of completeness (Mc) and Gutenberg-Richter (GR) recurrence parameters (a and b values) have been estimated. The Gutenberg-Richter analysis is preceded by an overview of the seismotectonics of the study area. The obtained Mc values vary from 3.5 to 3.9. The lower value of Mc was found mainly in Xizang region whereas the higher Mc threshold is evident in Pakistan region. However, the b values vary from 1.19 to 1.48. The lowest b value is recorded in Xizang region, which is mostly related to the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) fault, whereas the highest b values are recorded in NW India and Kashmir regions, which are mostly related to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault. The REB for the selected period has been compared to the most renowned bulletin of global seismicity, namely that issued by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A study of 4,821 events recorded by USGS in the study region indicates that about 36 % of seismic events were missed and the catalog is considered as complete for events with magnitudes ≥4.0. However, both a and b values are obviously higher than those of IMS catalog. The a and b parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude–frequency relationship have been utilized to forecast the probability of future earthquakes of different magnitudes and returned periods (recurrence intervals).     

江苏盐城盐纺井地球化学异常信息提取及机理分析

依据江苏省盐城市纺织厂井Ca²⁺和Cl^-月均值浓度,利用从属函数和自适应阈值法对该井进行了地球化学异常信息提取与分析;结合波速比和地磁谐波振幅比数据,利用膨胀扩容模式开展了映震机理讨论。结果表明,2008～2016年Ca²⁺浓度出现6次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,Cl^-浓度出现4次从属函数异常和5次自适应阈值异常,较好地对应了台站200km范围内M_L≥4.0的地震。此外,根据波速比、地磁谐波振幅比和该井地下水地球化学成因等分析结果,判断Ca²⁺、Cl^-浓度在震前的快速上升与深部流体上涌有关。     

地震短期综合预测的一种思路

本文介绍了一种地震短期综合预测思路,即以虚报率较低的短期异常作为“引信”,在出现1个或数个“引信”异常后,再依据其它异常综合判定发震地点和震级,其优点是据此做出的综合预测意见的成功率较高。本文以2012年江苏高邮-宝应4.9级地震和2016年江苏射阳4.4级地震的震前实时跟踪过程为例,详细介绍了该思路的应用,该综合预测思路对指导今后震情跟踪工作有实际意义。     

A first order evaluation of the capacity of a healthcare network under emergency

Immediately after an earthquake a healthcare system within a city, comprising several hospitals, endures an extraordinary demand. This paper proposes a new methodology to estimate whether the hospital network has enough capacity to withstand the emergency caused by an earthquake. The ability of healthcare facilities and to provide a broad spectrum of emergency services immediately after a seismic event is assessed through a metamodel that assumes waiting time as main response parameter to assess the hospital network performance. The First Aid network of San Francisco subjected to a 7.2 Mw magnitude earthquake has been used as case study. The total number of injuries and their distributions among the six major San Francisco's Emergency Departments have been assessed and compared with their capacity that has been determined using a survey conducted by the medical staff of the hospitals. The numerical results have shown that three of the six considered San Francisco's hospitals cannot provide emergency services to the estimated injured. Two alternatives have been proposed to improve the performance of the network. The first one redistributes existing resources while the second one considers additional resources by designing a new Emergency Department.     

Evaluation of the Iranian guideline for deismic rehabilitation of existing buildings

The Iranian Guideline for Seismic Rehabilitation of Existing Buildings （GSREB）, which is currently used for vulnerability assessment of existing buildings in Iran, is evaluated in this paper. The vulnerability of sample buildings of a variety stories with special steel moment resisting frames, designed according to the Standard No.2800 requirements, is assessed by GSREB. In the vulnerability assessment, different analysis methods were used and the results, in terms of usage ratio, defined as the ratio of the strength/deformation demand to the corresponding capacity, are compared. Numerical results show that some columns of these buildings do not satisfy the life safety performance criteria in the design hazard level. Moreover, the target displacement estimated by the Displacement Coefficient Method （DCM） is larger than the maximum displacement calculated by nonlinear dynamic analysis.     

The Maastrichtian-Danian in the SW Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt (S. Iran): An Integration of Planktonic Foraminiferal Biostratigraphy and Gamma-Ray Spectrometry

In this study, the Maastrichtian-Danian boundary was measured and sampled in two stratigraphic sections, the north and south flanks of the Dehnow anticline in Coastal Fars, Southern Iran. This boundary was also investigated in the drilled exploratory well-1 in the same region. The lithology of the Maastrichtian-Danian deposits consists of glauconitic, phosphatic argillaceous limestones and marlstones. 30 genera and 77 species of planktonic foraminifera have been determined. The recognized biozones are the Gansserina gansseri Interval Zone, and the Contusotruncana contusa Interval Zone, which indicates latest Campanian to middle Maastrichtian age for the upper part of the Gurpi Formation. In addition, the Eoglobigerina edita (P1) Partial Range Zone, Praemurica uncinata (P2) Lowest Occurrence Zone, Morozovella angulata (P3) Lowest Occurrence Zone and Globanomalina psudomenardii (P4) Taxon Range Zone represent a Danian to Thanetian age for the lower part of the Pabdeh Formation. From the absence of the Abathomphalus mayaroensis Interval Zone, Pseudoguembelina hariaensis Interval Zone, Pseudotextularia elegans Interval Zone, Plummerita hantkeninoides Interval Zone, Guembelitria cretacea (P0) Partial Range Zone and Parvularugoglobigerina eugubina (Pα) Total Range Zone, it can be deduced that there is a paraconformity across the Maastrichtian–Danian boundary in the studied area, this hiatus encompassing the late Maastrichtian and the earliest Danian. Danian deposits from the study area contain reworked glauconitized macrofossils, planktonic and benthic foraminifera of the Cretaceous. The obtained surface gamma-ray spectrometry logs resemble the exploratory well-1 gamma-ray wireline log.