A possible mechanism of stimulation of seismic activity by ionizing radiation of solar flares

A possible mechanism of earthquake triggering by ionizing radiation of solar flares is considered. A theoretical model and results of numerical calculations of disturbance of electric field, electric current, and heat release in lithosphere associated with variation of ionosphere conductivity caused by absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares are presented. A generation of geomagnetic field disturbances in a range of seconds/tens of seconds is possible as a result of large-scale perturbation of a conductivity of the bottom part of ionosphere in horizontal direction in the presence of external electric field. Amplitude-time characteristics of the geomagnetic disturbance depend upon a perturbation of integral conductivity of ionosphere. Depending on relation between integral Hall and Pedersen conductivities of disturbed ionosphere the oscillating and aperiodic modes of magnetic disturbances may be observed. For strong perturbations of the ionosphere conductivities amplitude of pulsations may obtain ~10² nT. In this case the amplitude of horizontal component of electric field on the Earth surface obtains 0.01 mV/m, electric current density in lithosphere –10^–6 A/m², and the power density of heat release produced by the generated current is 10^–7 W/m³. It is shown that the absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares can result in variations of a density of telluric currents in seismogenic faults comparable with a current density generated in the Earth crust by artificial pulsed power systems (geophysical MHD generator " Pamir-2” and electric pulsed facility " ERGU-600”), which provide regional earthquake triggering and spatiotemporal variation of seismic activity. Therefore, triggering of seismic events is possible not only by man-made pulsed power sources but also by the solar flares. The obtained results may be a physical basis for a novel approach to solve the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic triggering phenomena.     

A comparison of continuous mass‐lumped finite elements with finite differences for 3‐D wave propagation

The finite‐difference method on rectangular meshes is widely used for time‐domain modelling of the wave equation. It is relatively easy to implement high‐order spatial discretization schemes and parallelization. Also, the method is computationally efficient. However, the use of finite elements on tetrahedral unstructured meshes is more accurate in complex geometries near sharp interfaces. We compared the standard eighth‐order finite‐difference method to fourth‐order continuous mass‐lumped finite elements in terms of accuracy and computational cost. The results show that, for simple models like a cube with constant density and velocity, the finite‐difference method outperforms the finite‐element method by at least an order of magnitude. Outside the application area of rectangular meshes, i.e., for a model with interior complexity and topography well described by tetrahedra, however, finite‐element methods are about two orders of magnitude faster than finite‐difference methods, for a given accuracy.     

S‐wave kinematics in acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis

Acoustic transversely isotropic models are widely used in seismic exploration for P‐wave processing and analysis. In isotropic acoustic media only P‐wave can propagate, while in an acoustic transversely isotropic medium both P and S waves propagate. In this paper, we focus on kinematic properties of S‐wave in acoustic transversely isotropic media. We define new parameters better suited for S‐wave kinematics analysis. We also establish the travel time and relative geometrical spreading equations and analyse their properties. To illustrate the behaviour of the S‐wave in multi‐layered acoustic transversely isotropic media, we define the Dix‐type equations that are different from the ones widely used for the P‐wave propagation.     

Generalized non‐hyperbolic approximation for qP‐wave relative geometrical spreading in a layered transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis

Compensation for geometrical spreading along the ray‐path is important in amplitude variation with offset analysis especially for not strongly attenuative media since it contributes to the seismic amplitude preservation. The P‐wave geometrical spreading factor is described by a non‐hyperbolic moveout approximation using the traveltime parameters that can be estimated from the velocity analysis. We extend the P‐wave relative geometrical spreading approximation from the rational form to the generalized non‐hyperbolic form in a transversely isotropic medium with a vertical symmetry axis. The acoustic approximation is used to reduce the number of parameters. The proposed generalized non‐hyperbolic approximation is developed with parameters defined by two rays: vertical and a reference rays. For numerical examples, we consider two choices for parameter selection by using two specific orientations for reference ray. We observe from the numerical tests that the proposed generalized non‐hyperbolic approximation gives more accurate results in both homogeneous and multi‐layered models than the rational counterpart.     

Global warming mitigation by sulphur loading in the stratosphere: dependence of required emissions on allowable residual warming rate

An approach to mitigate global warming via sulphur loading in the stratosphere (geoengineering) is studied, employing a large ensemble of numerical experiments with the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The model is forced by the historical+SRES A1B anthropogenic greenhouse gases+tropospheric sulphates scenario for 1860–2100 with additional sulphur emissions in the stratosphere in the twenty-first century. Different ensemble members are constructed by varying values of the parameters governing mass, horizontal distribution and radiative forcing of the stratospheric sulphates. It is obtained that, given a global loading of the sulphates in the stratosphere, among those studied in this paper latitudinal distributions of geoengineering aerosols, the most efficient one at the global basis is that peaked between 50°N and 70°N and with a somewhat smaller burden in the tropics. Uniform latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates is a little less efficient. Sulphur emissions in the stratosphere required to stop the global temperature at the level corresponding to the mean value for 2000–2010 amount to more than 10 TgS/year in the year 2100. These emissions may be reduced if some warming is allowed to occur in the twenty-first century. For instance, if the global temperature trend S _g in every decade of this century is limited not to exceed 0.10 K/decade (0.15 K/decade), geoengineering emissions of 4–14 TgS/year (2–7 TgS/year) would be sufficient. Even if the global warming is stopped, temperature changes in different regions still occur with a magnitude up to 1 K. Their horizontal pattern depends on implied latitudinal distribution of stratospheric sulphates. In addition, for the stabilised global mean surface air temperature, global precipitation decreases by about 10%. If geoengineering emissions are stopped after several decades of implementation, their climatic effect is removed within a few decades. In this period, surface air temperature may grow with a rate of several Kelvins per decade. The results obtained with the IAP RAS CM are further interpreted employing a globally averaged energy–balance climate model. With the latter model, an analytical estimate for sulphate aerosol emissions in the stratosphere required climate mitigation is obtained. It is shown that effective vertical localisation of the imposed radiative forcing is important for geoengineering efficiency.     

Russia's 2020 GHG emissions target: Emission trends and implementation

This article provides an overview of the recent modelling results on Russia's GHG emission trends, and reviews the success of mitigation policies in order to establish whether Russia's domestic target seems feasible. Various Russian GHG emission scenarios indicate that Russia's domestic target – emissions 25% below the 1990 level by 2020 – is not far from the business-as-usual emissions trajectory. In particular, two factors could deliver the required emissions reductions: the currently declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth and ongoing domestic mitigation policies. The former is more likely to secure the target level of emissions, because GDP growth has been contracting significantly in comparison to earlier forecasts of 3–5% annual growth, and this trend is expected to continue. The latter option – success with domestic mitigation measures – seems less likely, given the various meta-barriers to policy implementation, and the marginality of mitigation policies, problems with law-making processes, bureaucratic tradition, and informality of legislative and implementation systems.

Policy relevance

This article provides an assessment of the stringency of Russia's domestically set emissions limitation target by 2020 and the chances of Russia, the fourth largest GHG emitter in the world, achieving it. We base our assessment on a number of recent key sources that analyse Russia's GHG emission paths by applying socio-economic models, which have only been available in the Russian language prior to this publication. This knowledge is applicable for use by other negotiation parties to compare Russia's efforts to mitigate climate change to their own, and thus makes a contribution to facilitating a more equal burden-sharing of climate commitments under the future climate change agreement.     

Pressure solution creep under cyclic loading

Pressure solution creep was studied on sodium chloride, calcium carbonate and ammonium nitrate in respective saturated aqueous solutions under static loading and cyclic unloading. Ball indentation and powder compaction curves show that each transition from static to cyclic regime produces an increase—sometimes manifold—in creep rate which lasts over the whole time of cyclic impact. After returning to static regime, the initial creep rate reappears. Over longer-term tests, both in static and cyclic regime, the creep gradually slows down. Increasing impact frequency enhances the effect. Any noticeable changes in strain rate are absent in a pure inert medium (paraffin oil). Possible mechanisms of the cyclic unloading effect are discussed.     

Surface studies of water isotopes in Antarctica for quantitative interpretation of deep ice core data

Polar ice cores are unique climate archives. Indeed, most of them have a continuous stratigraphy and present high temporal resolution of many climate variables in a single archive. While water isotopic records (δD or δ¹⁸O) in ice cores are often taken as references for past atmospheric temperature variations, their relationship to temperature is associated with a large uncertainty. Several reasons are invoked to explain the limitation of such an approach; in particular, post-deposition effects are important in East Antarctica because of the low accumulation rates. The strong influence of post-deposition processes highlights the need for surface polar research programs in addition to deep drilling programs. We present here new results on water isotopes from several recent surface programs, mostly over East Antarctica. Together with previously published data, the new data presented in this study have several implications for the climatic reconstructions based on ice core isotopic data: (1) The spatial relationship between surface mean temperature and mean snow isotopic composition over the first meters in depth can be explained quite straightforwardly using simple isotopic models tuned to d-excess vs. δ¹⁸O evolution in transects on the East Antarctic sector. The observed spatial slopes are significantly higher (～ 0.7–0.8‰·°C^?1 for δ¹⁸O vs. temperature) than seasonal slopes inferred from precipitation data at Vostok and Dome C (0.35 to 0.46‰·°C^?1). We explain these differences by changes in condensation versus surface temperature between summer and winter in the central East Antarctic plateau, where the inversion layer vanishes in summer. (2) Post-deposition effects linked to exchanges between the snow surface and the atmospheric water vapor lead to an evolution of δ¹⁸O in the surface snow, even in the absence of any precipitation event. This evolution preserves the positive correlation between the δ¹⁸O of snow and surface temperature, but is associated with a much slower δ¹⁸O-vs-temperature slope than the slope observed in the seasonal precipitation. (3) Post-deposition effects clearly limit the archiving of high-resolution (seasonal) climatic variability in the polar snow, but we suggest that sites with an accumulation rate of the order of 40 kg.m^?2.yr^?1 may record a seasonal cycle at shallow depths.