Household and community responses to impacts of climate change in the rural hills of Nepal

The research was designed to answer how households and local communities in rural Nepal are responding to the impacts of climate change. Using four villages as case study units, a mixed method approach was adopted in a multi-scaled process carried out at community, district and national levels. The research found that adaptation practices being adopted differ according to household well-being and are largely governed by access to education, information and resources within the community. Responses such as livelihood and income diversification, internal migration, share cropping, taking consumption loans, use of alternative energy and use of bio-pesticides were found to mostly vary according to well-being status of the interviewees. Development of adaptation plans, strategies and support mechanisms should take account of the different adaptation practices and needs of households. If such individual situations are not considered, adaptation responses may be ineffective or even be maladaptive and increase vulnerability. The research also found that the autonomous, unplanned and reactive nature of adaptation practices chosen by rural communities can contribute to further inequity and unequal power relations. The knowledge generated from this research contributes to understanding of how climate change contributes to vulnerability, but also how local practices and lack of an effective climate policy or response measures may magnify the effects of many existing drivers of vulnerability in terms of maladaptation and increasing social inequalities.     

High-Resolution Vertical Profile Measurements for Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour Concentrations Within and Above Crop Canopies

We present a portable elevator-based facility for measuring \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), water vapour, temperature and wind-speed profiles between the soil surface and the atmospheric surface layer above crop canopies. The end of a tube connected to a closed-path gas analyzer is continuously moved up and down over the profile range (in our case, approximately 2 m) while concentrations are logged at a frequency of \(20 \hbox { s}^{-1}\). Using campaign measurements in winter wheat, winter barley and a catch crop mixture (spring 2015 to autumn 2016) during different stages of crop development and different times of the day, we demonstrate a simple approach to correct for time lags, and the resulting profiles of 30-min mean mole fractions of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and \(\hbox {H}_{2}\hbox {O}\) over height increments of 0.025 m. The profiles clearly show the effects of soil respiration and photosynthetic carbon assimilation, varying both during the diurnal cycle and during the growing season. Profiles of temperature and wind speed are based on a ventilated finewire thermocouple and a hot-wire anemometer, respectively. Measurements over bare soil and a short plant canopy were analyzed in the framework of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to check the validity of the measurements and raw-data-processing approach. Derived fluxes of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), latent and sensible heat and momentum show good agreement with eddy-covariance measurements.     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Influence of the Surf Zone on the Marine Aerosol Concentration in a Coastal Area

Sea-salt aerosol concentrations in the coastal zone are assessed with the numerical aerosol-transport model MACMod that applies separate aerosol source functions for open ocean and the surf zone near the sea–land transition. Numerical simulations of the aerosol concentration as a function of offshore distance from the surf zone compare favourably with experimental data obtained during a surf-zone aerosol experiment in Duck, North Carolina in autumn 2007. Based on numerical simulations, the effect of variations in aerosol production (source strength) and transport conditions (wind speed, air–sea temperature difference), we show that the surf-zone aerosols are replaced by aerosols generated over the open ocean as the airmass advects out to sea. The contribution from the surf-generated aerosol is significant during high wind speeds and high wave events, and is significant up to 30 km away from the production zone. At low wind speeds, the oceanic component dominates, except within 1–5 km of the surf zone. Similar results are obtained for onshore flow, where no further sea-salt aerosol production occurs as the airmass advects out over land. The oceanic aerosols that are well-mixed throughout the boundary layer are then more efficiently transported inland than are the surf-generated aerosols, which are confined to the first few tens of metres above the surface, and are therefore also more susceptible to the type of surface (trees or grass) that determines the deposition velocity.     

An Abrupt Rainfall Decrease over the Asian Inland Plateau Region around 1999 and the Possible Underlying Mechanism

A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau(AIP) region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount,leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore,the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999–2007. Three different drought indices—the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index—present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999–2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region.     

Impact of data model and point density on aboveground forest biomass estimation from airborne LiDAR

Background

Accurate estimation of aboveground forest biomass (AGB) and its dynamics is of paramount importance in understanding the role of forest in the carbon cycle and the effective implementation of climate change mitigation policies. LiDAR is currently the most accurate technology for AGB estimation. LiDAR metrics can be derived from the 3D point cloud (echo-based) or from the canopy height model (CHM). Different sensors and survey configurations can affect the metrics derived from the LiDAR data. We evaluate the ability of the metrics derived from the echo-based and CHM data models to estimate AGB in three different biomes, as well as the impact of point density on the metrics derived from them.

Results

Our results show that differences among metrics derived at different point densities were significantly different from zero, with a larger impact on CHM-based than echo-based metrics, particularly when the point density was reduced to 1 point m^?2. Both data models-echo-based and CHM-performed similarly well in estimating AGB at the three study sites. For the temperate forest in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, USA, R² ranged from 0.79 to 0.8 and RMSE (relRMSE) from 69.69 (35.59%) to 70.71 (36.12%) Mg ha^?1 for the echo-based model and from 0.76 to 0.78 and 73.84 (37.72%) to 128.20 (65.49%) Mg ha^?1 for the CHM-based model. For the moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, the models gave R² ranging between 0.70 and 0.71 and RMSE between 30.08 (12.36%) and 30.32 (12.46) Mg ha^?1 [between 0.69–0.70 and 30.42 (12.50%) and 61.30 (25.19%) Mg ha^?1] for the echo-based [CHM-based] models. Finally, for the Atlantic forest in the Sierra do Mar, Brazil, R² was between 0.58–0.69 and RMSE between 37.73 (8.67%) and 39.77 (9.14%) Mg ha^?1 for the echo-based model, whereas for the CHM R² was between 0.37–0.45 and RMSE between 45.43 (10.44%) and 67.23 (15.45%) Mg ha^?1.

Conclusions

Metrics derived from the CHM show a higher dependence on point density than metrics derived from the echo-based data model. Despite the median of the differences between metrics derived at different point densities differing significantly from zero, the mean change was close to zero and smaller than the standard deviation except for very low point densities (1 point m^?2). The application of calibrated models to estimate AGB on metrics derived from thinned datasets resulted in less than 5% error when metrics were derived from the echo-based model. For CHM-based metrics, the same level of error was obtained for point densities higher than 5 points m^?2. The fact that reducing point density does not introduce significant errors in AGB estimates is important for biomass monitoring and for an effective implementation of climate change mitigation policies such as REDD + due to its implications for the costs of data acquisition. Both data models showed similar capability to estimate AGB when point density was greater than or equal to 5 point m^?2.

     

Elastic response of catamaran wetdeck to liquid impact

The impact of an elastic plate onto the compressible fluid without free surface deformation is considered. The ability of the liquid volume to be deformed is geometrically limited which leads to severe impact conditions. The present analysis is focused on the stresses in the plate and the hydrodynamic loads under the impact. The motivation for this research comes from ship hydrodynamics, where the hulls of a catamaran restrict the liquid outflow and the water impacts onto the wetdeck. The influence of the air on the impact process is investigated. The analysis did not reveal any great advantage of utilizing the air-cushion effect or ejection of air into the water near the impact region to prevent high stresses in the elastic plate. It was found that in the problem considered, the stress peaks far from the plate centre and the one-mode approximation does not provide correct information about the stress level.     

Water fluxes through the Cretan Arc Straits, Eastern Mediterranean Sea: March 1994 to June 1995

Five research cruises were undertaken incorporating ADCP sections along the Cretan Arc Straits and CTD surveys covering the entire area of the Straits and the Cretan Sea. In addition, six moorings (with 15 current meters) were deployed within the Straits, which monitored flows in the surface (50 m), intermediate (250 m), and deep (50 m from the bottom) layers. The ADCP, CM, and CTD datasets enable the derivation of water transports through the Cretan Arc Straits to be assessed. Flow structure through the Cretan Arc Straits is not the typical flow regime with a surface inflow and deep outflow, instead there is a persistent deep outflow of Cretan Deep Water (CDW) (σ_θ>29.2) with an annual mean of ˜0.6 Sv, through the Antikithira and Kassos Straits at depths below 400 m and 500 m, respectively. CDW outflowing transports are higher (˜0.8 Sv) in April–June, and lower (˜0.3 Sv) in October–December. Within the upper water layer (0–˜400 m), the transport and the water exchanges through the Straits are controlled by local circulation features, which weaken substantially below 200 m. The Asia Minor Current (AMC) influences the Rhodes and the Karpathos Straits, resulting in a net inflow of water. In contrast, the Mirtoan/West Cretan Cyclone influences the Antikithira and Kithira Straits, where there is a net outflow. In the Kassos Strait, there is a complex interaction between the East Cretan Cyclone, the Ierapetra Anticyclone and the westward extension of the Rhodes Gyre, which results in a variable flow regime. There is a net inflow in autumn and early winter, and a switch to a net outflow in early spring and summer. The total inflow and outflow, throughout all of the Straits, ranged from ˜2 to ˜3.5 Sv, with higher values in autumn and early winter and lower in summer. The AMC carries ˜2 Sv of inflow through the Rhodes and Karpathos Straits, and this accounts for 60–80% of the total inflow. About 10–15% of the total outflow is of CDW, and a further 45–70% occurs through the upper 400 m of the Kithira and Antikithira Straits. The Kassos Strait exhibits a net inflow of ˜0.7 Sv in autumn and early winter, with a net outflow of ˜0.5 Sv in early spring and summer.     

A synthesis of the circulation and hydrography of the South Aegean Sea and the Straits of the Cretan Arc (March 1994–January 1995)

Four seasonal oceanographic cruises were carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, within the framework of the CEC/MAST-MTP Project PELAGOS, during 1994–1995. The surveys covered the South Aegean Sea and the adjacent open sea regions (southeastern Ionian, northwestern Levantine). Analysis of CTD data revealed that a multiscaled circulation pattern prevails in the area. It differs from the circulations detected during the 1986–87, thus indicating interannual variability. Cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres and eddies are interconnected by currents and jets variable in space and time. Most of the features are persistent, others seem transitional or recurrent. The hydrological structure is also complex and apart from the upper layer does not present basinwide any significant seasonality. Dynamical and hydrological regimes are variable in the upper and intermediate layers at the Straits of the Cretan Arc, while the deep regime seems rather constant. Topographic control is evident on the flows through the straits. The new very dense deep water mass, namely the Cretan Deep Water (CDW) and a well-defined intermediate layer of minimum temperature and salinity, the so-called Transition Mediterranean Water (TMW), consists the new important structural elements of the South Aegean Sea. The CDW outflows towards the deep and bottom layers of the Eastern Mediterranean, thus considerably contributing to the formation of the new, denser Deep and Bottom Water of the Eastern Mediterranean, which sinks and displaces the Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water of Adriatic origin in the adjacent sea regions outside the Aegean Sea.     

The mobilization and deposition of mud deposits in a coastal plain estuary

Muddy sediments with their potential for containing contaminants are commonly deposited and remobilized by tidal currents in estuarine environments. We examined the mobilization and subsequent redeposition of mud in a coastal plain estuary located in the southeastern United States. Time-series data for salinity, suspended sediment concentrations and quality (percent organic matter and pigment concentrations) were obtained over a 13-hour tidal cycle. We found that fast-settling mud particles are found during the highest tidal current speeds. Particle quality analyses suggest that all the material is of similar origin, and that phaeopigment can be used as a tracer of particles in this system. These particles settle onto the bed when current speeds approach slack conditions. We speculate that the quantity of mud mobilized during neap tide is less than during spring tide resulting in an opportunity for the mud to partially consolidate on the bottom and be removed from resuspension. We further speculate that the muddy sediments are mainly derived from fringing marshes in this estuary.