Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.     

Hydrogeochemical transport modeling of the infiltration of tertiary treated wastewater in a dune area, Belgium

Managed artificial recharge (MAR) is a well-established practice for augmentation of depleted groundwater resources or for environmental benefit. At the St-André MAR site in the Belgian dune area, groundwater resources are optimised through re-use of highly treated wastewater by means of infiltration ponds. The very high quality of the infiltration water sets this system apart from other MAR systems. The low total dissolved solid (TDS) content in the infiltration water (less than 50 mg/L) compared to the dune aquifer (500 mg/L) triggers a number of reactions, increasing the TDS through soil-aquifer passage. Multi-component reactive transport modelling was applied to analyse the geochemical processes that occur. Carbonate dissolution is the main process increasing the TDS of the infiltration water. Oxic aquifer conditions prevail between the infiltration ponds and the extraction wells. This is driven by the high flow velocities, leaving no time to consume O₂ between the ponds and extraction wells. Cation exchange is important when infiltration water is replaced by native dune water or when significant changes in infiltration-water quality occur. The seasonal variation of O₂ and temperature in the infiltration water are the main drivers for seasonal changes in the concentration of all major ions.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987113000327

The Panzhihua intrusion in southwest China is part of the Emeishan large igneous province and host of a large Fe-Ti-V ore deposit.In previous interpretations it was considered to be a layered,differentiated sill with the ore deposits at its base.New structural and petrological data suggest instead that the intrusion has an open S-shape,with two near-concordant segments joined by a discordant dyke-like segment. During emplacement of the main intrusion,multiple generations of mafic dykes invaded carbonate wall rocks,producing a large contact aureole.In the central segment,magmatic layering is oriented oblique to the walls of the intrusion.This layering cannot have formed by crystal settling or in-situ growth on the floor of the intrusion;instead we propose that it resulted from inward solidification of multiple,individually operating,convection cells.Ore formation was triggered by interaction of magma with carbonate wall rocks.     

Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961–2000) and future (2046–2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961–2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21^st century.     

Khatyrka,a new CV3 find from the Koryak Mountains,Eastern Russia

A new meteorite find, named Khatyrka, was recovered from eastern Siberia as a result of a search for naturally occurring quasicrystals. The meteorite occurs as clastic grains within postglacial clay‐rich layers along the banks of a small stream in the Koryak Mountains, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of far eastern Russia. Some of the grains are clearly chondritic and contain Type IA porphyritic olivine chondrules enclosed in matrices that have the characteristic platy olivine texture, matrix olivine composition, and mineralogy (olivine, pentlandite, nickel‐rich iron‐nickel metal, nepheline, and calcic pyroxene [diopside‐hedenbergite solid solution]) of oxidized‐subgroup CV3 chondrites. A few grains are fine‐grained spinel‐rich calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions with mineral oxygen isotopic compositions again typical of such objects in CV3 chondrites. The chondritic and CAI grains contain small fragments of metallic copper‐aluminum‐iron alloys that include the quasicrystalline phase icosahedrite. One grain is an achondritic intergrowth of Cu‐Al metal alloys and forsteritic olivine ± diopsidic pyroxene, both of which have meteoritic (CV3‐like) oxygen isotopic compositions. Finally, some grains consist almost entirely of metallic alloys of aluminum + copper ± iron. The Cu‐Al‐Fe metal alloys and the alloy‐bearing achondrite clast are interpreted to be an accretionary component of what otherwise is a fairly normal CV3 (oxidized) chondrite. This association of CV3 chondritic grains with metallic copper‐aluminum alloys makes Khatyrka a unique meteorite, perhaps best described as a complex CV3 (ox) breccia.     

A petrogenetic model for the comagmatic origin of chassignites and nakhlites: Inferences from chlorine‐rich minerals,petrology, and geochemistry

Twelve samples belonging to the chassignite and nakhlite subgroups of Martian meteorites were investigated using a variety of micro‐beam analytical techniques to gain insight into the petrogenesis of these two meteorite classes. There are a striking number of geochemical similarities between the chassignites and nakhlites, including mineralogy and petrology, crystallization age, cosmic‐ray exposure age, and radiogenic isotopic compositions. However, there are also geochemical differences, namely in trace element systematics of pyroxenes, that have led some authors to conclude that the nakhlites are comagmatic with each other, but not comagmatic with the chassignites. On the basis of data presented here, we propose a model in which these differences can be reconciled by the addition of an exogenous Cl‐rich fluid to the chassignite‐nakhlite magma body shortly after the formation of the cumulate horizon that was sampled by the Chassigny meteorite. This model is supported by the textural and chemical associations of the volatile‐bearing minerals apatite, amphibole, and biotite, which record a history starting with the addition of a Cl‐ and LREE‐enriched fluid to the magma body. As the magma continued to crystallize, it eventually reached chloride saturation and degassed a Cl‐rich fluid phase. Depending on the provenance of the Cl‐rich fluid, this model could explain how the chassignites and nakhlites originated from an LREE‐depleted source, yet all exhibit LREE‐enriched bulk‐rock patterns. Additionally, the model explains the range in oxygen fugacity that is recorded by the chassignites and nakhlites because eventual exsolution and loss of Cl‐rich fluid phases near the end of crystallization of the nakhlite sequence leads to auto‐oxidation of the magma body due to the preferential partitioning of Fe²⁺ into the fluid phase.     

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

Terrestrial satellite records for climate studies: how long is long enough? A test case for the Sahel

Satellite-based observations provide a unique data record to study the Earth system. Recent efforts of the space agencies to reprocess the archives of satellite observations aim to provide Essential Climate Variable (ECV) data records for manifold applications in climate sciences. Varying lengths of a data record or gaps in a data time series are likely to affect the analysis results obtained from long-term satellite data records. The present paper provides a systematic assessment of the impact of variations in the observational record of terrestrial ECVs for selected climate applications like trend detection and the analysis of relationships between different ECVs. As an example, the Sahelian drought and the subsequent recovery in precipitation and vegetation will be analyzed in detail using observations of precipitation, surface albedo, vegetation index, as well as ocean indices. The paper provides a different perspective on the robustness of long-term satellite observations than previous studies. It shows in particular that the long-term significant trends in precipitation and vegetation dynamics are rather sensitive to the investigation period chosen and that small data gaps can already have a considerable influence on the analysis results. It is therefore a plea for continuous climate observations from space.