Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador

The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador.     

Alpine overdeepenings and paleo-ice flow changes: an integrated geophysical-sedimentological case study from Tyrol (Austria)

We present a study of the inneralpine basin of Hopfgarten focused on the analysis of basin fill in order to reveal its formation in relation to paleo-ice flow and tectonics. The study is based on geological mapping as well as seismic (reflection and refraction) and geoelectrical surveys. The oldest sequence in the basin, identified by seismic stratigraphy at 400 m below surface, consists of coarse grained sediments of supposedly Oligocene to Miocene age, which subsided along faults linked to the Inn fault. Three superimposed sequences, each displaying baselaps in contact with a subglacially formed unconformity and sigmoid foresets, show pleniglacial conditions followed by a glaciolacustrine environment. The uppermost of these three sequences lies on top of last glacial maximum till (LGM; Würmian Pleniglacial; MIS 2) and represents Termination I. The middle sequence is classified as Termination II following the Rissian Pleniglacial (MIS 6). The oldest glacial sequence cannot be constrained chronostratigraphically but might correlate with Termination V following the major glaciation of MIS 12. Limited glacial erosion during the LGM occurred only during the ice build-up phase. Further overdeepening was impeded due to topographic barrier and mutual blockades of glaciers within this highly dissected landscape. The occurrence and relative timing of the impediment was controlled by the onset of transfluences and thus by the altitude of coles. The higher amount of overdeepening during older glacial periods is explained by longer phases of free ice advance in the ice build up phase due to higher transfluences routes at that time. Thus, the preservation of older Pleistocene sequences within the basin may be the result of the lowering of watersheds from one glaciation to the next. Our model of an inverse relationship between glacial shaping of the surface and the subsurface may apply to similar Alpine landscapes as well.     

The role of choke points in the ocean context

Choke points are narrow international waterways where three characteristics are present. The waterway should be narrow and capable of being closed off to both commercial and military snipping. There should be no readily available maritime route to utilize in the event of closure. Finally, the choke point should be of considerable significance to at least several States. This article identifies seven “primary” choke points which seem to satisfy these criteria. These are Gibraltar, Bab el Mandeb, Hormuz, the Danish and Turkish Straits, and the Suez and Panama Canals. It also identifies eleven “secondary” choke points, where at least one of the reouired characteristics is missing. The eleven include Dover, Bering and Magellan Straits, as well as Malacca-Singapore and a number of others in the Western Pacific. Turning to a consideration of the status of choke points in a Post-Cold War era, the article notes four basic assumptions: (1) the intense military rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union will be reduced in coming years; (2) for many countries marine-related environmental concerns may be increasing considerably; (3) as the Cold War recedes, regional contests and confrontations will grow more intense; and (4) the overall densities of water-borne traffic will undergo change as the relative economic growth of regional centers changes. The article then considers the potential impact of these trends on the future role of choke points.     

Properties and depositional environment of the Neogene Elhovo Lignite, Bulgaria

Several Mio-Pliocene aged lignite seams occur as part of a non-marine transgressive sequence in the Elhovo graben in south-eastern Bulgaria. The present study is focused on 45 samples collected from three boreholes in the eastern part of the basin. Petrographic data along with ash and sulphur contents were used in order to determine the lateral and vertical variations of the coal facies and depositional environment of the Elhovo lignite.The lignite seams accumulated in a rheotrophic, low-lying mire with high pH value and are characterized by high ash yields and sulphur contents. Despite of the neutral to weakly alkaline environment the bacterial activity was limited and the tissue preservation and gelification were mainly controlled by the redox conditions.Vegetation rich in decay resistant conifers dominated in the Elhovo basin together with mesophytic angiosperm species. The absence of algal remains and sapropelic coal indicated that open water areas were not present during peat accumulation. The latter processed in an environment, characterized by low subsidence rate, in which prior to the burial the woods were subjected to severe mechanical destruction. According to our interpretation, the enhanced impregnation of the tissues bacteria and fungi played only a secondary role in the process of humification. The lignite from borehole 122 and partly from BH 145 deposited in an environment characterized by relatively low (ground)water table, whereas to the south an area dominated by a flooded forest swamp (BH 104) formed. This is suggested by the better tissue preservation and gelification of the organic matter in BH 104. The vertical variation of the maceral composition in the studied lignite is interpreted as a consequence of vegetational changes, rather than to changes in the depositional environment. The low contents of inertinite macerals indicate that despite of the low water level the environment was relatively wet and the thermal and oxidative destruction of the tissues was limited.Peat accumulation was terminated by a major flooding event and a short term establishment of a lake. In contrast to the West Maritsa basin, no seam formed in the Elhovo basin during the filling stage of the lake.     

Built environment and agricultural value at risk from Hurricane Irma flooding in Florida (USA)

Natural Hazards - Flooding is the most costly type of natural disaster, as well as the most frequent. To provide risk-based flood insurance, providers must be able to accurately determine an...     

The Ca-Eskola component in eclogitic clinopyroxene as a function of pressure, temperature and bulk composition: an experimental study to 15 GPa with possible implications for the formation of oriented SiO2-inclusions in omphacite

Experiments have been conducted in the P-T range 2.5–15 GPa and 850–1,500°C using bulk compositions in the systems SiO₂–TiO₂–Al₂O₃–Fe₂O₃–FeO–MnO–MgO–CaO–Na₂O–K₂O–P₂O₅ and SiO₂–TiO₂–Al₂O₃–MgO–CaO–Na₂O to investigate the Ca-Eskola (CaEs Ca_0.5□_0.5AlSi₂O₆) content of clinopyroxene in eclogitic assemblages containing garnet + clinopyroxene + SiO₂ ± TiO₂ ± kyanite as a function of P, T, and bulk composition. The results show that CaEs_ss in clinopyroxene increases with increasing T and is strongly bulk composition dependent whereby high CaEs-contents are favoured by bulk compositions with high normative anorthite and low diopside contents. In this study, a maximum of 18 mol% CaEs_ss was found at 6 GPa and 1,350°C in a kyanite-eclogite assemblage garnet + clinopyroxene + kyanite + rutile + coesite. By comparison, no significant increase in CaEs_ss with increasing P could be observed. If the formation of oriented SiO₂-rods frequently observed in eclogititc clinopyroxenes is due to the retrogressive breakdown of a CaEs-component then these textures are a cooling rather than a decompression phenomenon and are most likely to be found in kyanite-bearing eclogites cooled from temperatures ≥750°C. The presence of clinopyroxene with approx. 4 mol% CaEs_ss in an experiment conducted at 2.5 GPa/850°C confirms earlier suggestions based on field data that vacancy-rich clinopyroxenes are not necessarily restricted to ultrahigh pressure metamorphic conditions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Early Cambrian Mollusc Watsonella crosbyi: A Potential GSSP Index Fossil for the Base of the Cambrian Stage 2

The mollusc Watsonella crosbyi was studied on the basis of material from the lower Cambrian Dahai Member of the Zhujiaqing Formation in eastern Yunnan, China and the Pestrotsvet Formation of the Aldan River region in the Siberian Platform. This fossil had been excessively described under different names in the literature, such as Heraultia varensalensis Cobbold, 1935, H. sibirica Missarzhevsky, 1974, Heraultipegma yunnanensis He and Yang, 1982, H. yannanese He and Yang, 1982, Watsonella yunnanensis, W. crosbyi Grabau, 1900, etc. Taxonomic revision shows that other species are junior synonyms of W. crosbyi. Analysis of functional morphology implies that W. crosbyi may be rather a helcionelloid than a rostroconch since its univalved conch is untorted endogastric and lacks a rostrum and a true internal pegma. Replicas of the original microstructures preserved on the surfaces of phosphatic internal moulds confirm that the shell consists of two layers. The inner layer is lamello-fibrillar, and the outer layer is spherulitic prismatic. The widespread geographical occurrences in both siliciclastic and carbonate rocks of the late Terreneuvian indicate that W. crosbyi is an important index fossil for global correlations and subdivision of the Cambrian Series 1 (Terreneuvian). The first appearance datum (FAD) of W. crosbyi is suggested to be a potential GSSP (Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point) candidate marker for defining the base of the Cambrian Stage 2.