Inundation and flow properties of a runoff-generated debris flow following successive high-severity wildfires in northern Arizona,USA

Burned slopes are susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows in the years following wildfire due to reductions in vegetation cover and soil infiltration capacity. Debris flows can pose serious threats to downstream communities, so quantifying variations in flow properties along debris-flow runout paths is needed to improve both conceptual and quantitative models of debris-flow behaviour to help anticipate and mitigate the risk associated with these events. Changes in flow properties along the runout paths of the runoff-generated debris flows that follow fire may be particularly dramatic, since they initiate when a water-dominated flow rapidly entrains sediment and later transition back to a water-dominated flow once they reach greater drainage areas and lower slopes. Here, we study the properties of a debris flow that initiated 1 month following the 2022 Pipeline Fire in northern Arizona, USA. We categorized flow type into two classes, granular debris flow and muddy debris flow, along the 7-km runout path and examined how flow properties varied between the phases. Changes in channel gradient and confinement likely facilitated the transition between the flow phases, which were characterized by significant differences in maximum clast size, but similar clay content and fine fractions. We also found that the volume and runout distance of the debris flow were 28 and six times greater, respectively, than that of a debris flow that initiated in the same watershed following a fire 12 years earlier. We attribute these differences to the combined effects of two high-severity fires, suggesting that consideration of recent fire history could improve post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. Results of this study provide quantitative constraints on changes in post-fire debris-flow properties along a runout path. Data collected in this study add to a small number of debris-flow inundation datasets that can be used to test runout models in post-fire settings.     

Laboratory Exploration of Solar Energetic Phenomena

The solar atmosphere displays a wide variety of dynamic phenomena driven by the interaction of magnetic fields and plasma. In particular, plasma jets in the solar chromosphere and corona, coronal heating, solar flares and coronal mass ejections all point to the presence of magnetic phenomena such as reconnection, flux cancellation, the formation of magnetic islands, and plasmoids. While we can observe the signatures and gross features of such phenomena we cannot probe the essential physics driving them, given the spatial resolution of current instrumentation. Flexible and well-controlled laboratory experiments, scaled to solar parameters, open unique opportunities to reproduce the relevant unsteady phenomena under various simulated solar conditions. The ability to carefully control these parameters in the laboratory allows one to diagnose the dynamical processes which occur and to apply the knowledge gained to the understanding of similar processes on the Sun, in addition directing future solar observations and models. This talk introduces the solar phenomena and reviews the contributions made by laboratory experimentation.     

Household and community responses to impacts of climate change in the rural hills of Nepal

The research was designed to answer how households and local communities in rural Nepal are responding to the impacts of climate change. Using four villages as case study units, a mixed method approach was adopted in a multi-scaled process carried out at community, district and national levels. The research found that adaptation practices being adopted differ according to household well-being and are largely governed by access to education, information and resources within the community. Responses such as livelihood and income diversification, internal migration, share cropping, taking consumption loans, use of alternative energy and use of bio-pesticides were found to mostly vary according to well-being status of the interviewees. Development of adaptation plans, strategies and support mechanisms should take account of the different adaptation practices and needs of households. If such individual situations are not considered, adaptation responses may be ineffective or even be maladaptive and increase vulnerability. The research also found that the autonomous, unplanned and reactive nature of adaptation practices chosen by rural communities can contribute to further inequity and unequal power relations. The knowledge generated from this research contributes to understanding of how climate change contributes to vulnerability, but also how local practices and lack of an effective climate policy or response measures may magnify the effects of many existing drivers of vulnerability in terms of maladaptation and increasing social inequalities.     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

Contributors to chromium isotope variation of meteorites

We report the results of a comprehensive, high precision survey of the Cr isotopic compositions of primitive chondrites, along with some differentiated meteorites. To ensure complete dissolution of our samples, they were first fused with lithium borate-tetraborate at 1050-1000 °C. Relative to the NIST Cr standard SRM 3112a, carbonaceous chondrites exhibit excesses in ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr from 0.4 to 1.6ε (1ε = 1 part in 10,000), and ordinary chondrites display a common ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr deficit of ∼0.4ε. Analyses of acid-digestion residues of chondrites show that carbonaceous and ordinary chondrites share a common ⁵⁴Cr-enriched carrier, which is characterized by a large excess in ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr (up to 200ε) associated with a very small deficit in ⁵³Cr/⁵²Cr (<2ε). We did not find ⁵⁴Cr anomalies in either bulk enstatite chondrites or in leachates of their acid-digestion residues. This either requires that the enstatite chondrite parent bodies did not incorporate the ⁵⁴Cr anomaly carrier phase during their accretion, or the phase was destroyed by parent body metamorphism. Chromium in the terrestrial rocks and lunar samples analyzed here show no deviation from the NIST SRM 3112a Cr standard. The eucrite and Martian meteorites studied exhibit small deficits in ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr. The ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr variations among different meteorite classes suggest that there was a spatial and/or temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of a ⁵⁴Cr-rich component in the inner Solar System.We confirm the correlated excesses in ⁵⁴Cr/⁵²Cr and ⁵³Cr/⁵²Cr for bulk carbonaceous chondrites, but the new data yield a steeper slope (∼6.6) than that reported in Shukolyukov and Lugmair (2006). The correlated excesses may affect the use of the Mn-Cr chronometer in carbonaceous chondrites. We could not confirm the bulk carbonaceous chondrite Mn-Cr isochron reported by Shukolyukov and Lugmair (2006) and Moynier et al. (2007), mostly because we find much smaller total variations in ε⁵³Cr (∼0.2). All bulk chondrites have small ε⁵³Cr excesses (up to 0.3) relative to the Earth, most likely reflecting the sub-chondritic Mn/Cr ratio of the Earth. The ε⁵³Cr variations in chondrites do seem to grossly correlate with Mn/Cr and yield an initial Solar System ⁵³Mn/⁵⁵Mn value of 5.4(±2.4) × 10⁻⁶, corresponding to an absolute age of 4566.4 (±2.2) Ma.Nuclear interactions with cosmic rays result in coupled excesses in ε⁵⁴Cr and ε⁵³Cr with a ∼4:1 ratio in phases with high Fe/Cr. These are most dramatically demonstrated in the iron meteorite Carbo, showing excesses in ε⁵⁴Cr of up to 140ε. These new results show that the Mn-Cr chronometer should be used with caution in samples/minerals with high Fe/Cr and long cosmic ray exposure ages.     

Analysing Debris-Flow Impact Models, Based on a Small Scale Modelling Approach

The objective of this study is to analyse adaptable debris-flow impact models, which are very important for mitigation measurements and buildings using their sphere of influence. For this reason, 16 debris-flow experiments, on a small-scale modelling approach, were performed. Impact forces were measured with a force plate panel, consisting of 24 aluminium devices, coaxially mounted with resistance strain gauges. Flow velocities, flow heights as well as horizontal impact forces were sampled with a frequency of 2.4 kHz. Sub datasets of sampled raw force data were defined by applying an average median filter, a low-pass filter routine. Further, estimated peak pressure values as well as empirical coefficients of hydraulic impact models were compared, and the influence of signal processing is discussed.     

Oxygen isotope and chemical compositions of magnetite and olivine in the anomalous CK3 Watson 002 and ungrouped Asuka‐881595 carbonaceous chondrites: Effects of parent body metamorphism

We report in situ O isotope and chemical compositions of magnetite and olivine in chondrules of the carbonaceous chondrites Watson‐002 (anomalous CK3) and Asuka (A)‐881595 (ungrouped C3). Magnetite in Watson‐002 occurs as inclusion‐free subhedral grains and rounded inclusion‐bearing porous grains replacing Fe,Ni‐metal. In A‐881595, magnetite is almost entirely inclusion‐free and coexists with Ni‐rich sulfide and less abundant Ni‐poor metal. Oxygen isotope compositions of chondrule olivine in both meteorites plot along carbonaceous chondrite anhydrous mineral (CCAM) line with a slope of approximately 1 and show a range of Δ¹⁷O values (from approximately ?3 to ?6‰). One chondrule from each sample was found to contain O isotopically heterogeneous olivine, probably relict grains. Oxygen isotope compositions of magnetite in A‐881595 plot along a mass‐dependent fractionation line with a slope of 0.5 and show a range of Δ¹⁷O values from ?2.4‰ to ?1.1‰. Oxygen isotope compositions of magnetite in Watson‐002 cluster near the CCAM line and a Δ¹⁷O value of ?4.0‰ to ?2.9‰. These observations indicate that magnetite and chondrule olivine are in O isotope disequilibrium, and, therefore, not cogenetic. We infer that magnetite in CK chondrites formed by the oxidation of pre‐existing metal grains by an aqueous fluid during parent body alteration, in agreement with previous studies. The differences in Δ¹⁷O values of magnetite between Watson‐002 and A‐881595 can be attributed to their different thermal histories: the former experienced a higher degree of thermal metamorphism that led to the O isotope exchange between magnetite and adjacent silicates.     

Optimal and sustainable extraction of groundwater in coastal aquifers

Four examples are investigated for the optimal and sustainable extraction of groundwater from a coastal aquifer under the threat of seawater intrusion. The objectives and constraints of these management scenarios include maximizing the total volume of water pumped, maximizing the profit of selling water, minimizing the operational and water treatment costs, minimizing the salt concentration of the pumped water, and controlling the drawdown limits. The physical model is based on the density-dependent advective-dispersive solute transport model. Genetic algorithm is used as the optimization tool. The models are tested on a hypothetical confined aquifer with four pumping wells located at various depths. These solutions establish the feasibility of simulating various management scenarios under complex three-dimensional flow and transport processes in coastal aquifers for the optimal and sustainable use of groundwater.     

Bayesian maximum entropy approach and its applications: a review

The present paper reviews the conceptual framework and development of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) approach. BME has been considered as a significant breakthrough and contribution to applied stochastics by introducing an improved, knowledge-based modeling framework for spatial and spatiotemporal information. In this work, one objective is the overview of distinct BME features. By offering a foundation free of restrictive assumptions that limit comparable techniques, an ability to integrate a variety of prior knowledge bases, and rigorous accounting for both exact and uncertain data, the BME approach was coined as introducing modern spatiotemporal geostatistics. A second objective is to illustrate BME applications and adoption within numerous different scientific disciplines. We summarize examples and real-world studies that encompass the perspective of science of the total environment, including atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and ecosphere, while also noting applications that extend beyond these fields. The broad-ranging application track suggests BME as an established, valuable tool for predictive spatial and space–time analysis and mapping. This review concludes with the present status of BME, and tentative paths for future methodological research, enhancements, and extensions.