A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector

Background

United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline (‘business as usual’) scenario.

Results

Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe.

Conclusions

It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.

     

Patterns of basin fill in Triassic turbidites of the Nanpanjiang basin: implications for regional tectonics and impacts on carbonate‐platform evolution

The Nanpanjiang Basin occurs in a key position for resolving controversies of basin tectonics and patterns of plate assembly at the junction between south China and Southeast Asian plates. Paleocurrent measurements indicate that siliciclastic turbidites in the basin were sourced by the Precambrian Jiangnan uplift to the northeast, the Precambrian Yunkai uplift to the southeast and the Triassic Songma suture to the south. Detrital zircon geochronology reveals Archean (2500 Ma), Paleoproterozoic (1800–1900 Ma), Neoproterozoic (900–1000 Ma) and Paleozoic (420–460 Ma) ages consistent with derivation from the Jiangnan and Yunkai uplifts. A large Permian‐Triassic peak of 250 Ma is present in the southern basin and attenuates northward suggesting derivation from an arc developed along the Songma suture. Sandstone QFL compositions average 65/12/23% and plot in the recycled orogen field except for a few samples in the southern basin that fall in the dissected arc field. The compositions are consistent with derivation from Precambrian basement that includes orogenic complexes. In the southern basin, Middle Triassic turbidites contain greater lithics and feldspars and Lower Triassic turbidites have volcaniclastic composition consistent with derivation from a southerly arc. Our preferred interpretation is evolution from remnant basin to a large peripheral foreland with southward subduction and convergence with Indochina along the Songma suture. The previously proposed Dian‐Qiong zone is not a suture as its map location places it within carbonate platforms bounded by identical stratigraphy. The Nan‐Uttaradit zone is too distant to have provided voluminous siliciclastic flux to the basin. The Nanpanjiang Basin provides an example of the evolution of an exceptionally large foreland with far‐field rejuvenation of Precambrian uplifts and carbonate platforms that were significantly influenced by siliciclastic flux. The timing and pattern of turbidite basin fill impacted platform evolution by enabling margin progradation in areas proximal to siliciclastic sources, whereas platforms distant from sources were driven to aggradation and extreme relief with large‐scale gravitational sector collapse.     

Uncertain climate: An investigation into public scepticism about anthropogenic climate change

This study presents a detailed investigation of public scepticism about climate change in Britain using the trend, attribution, and impact scepticism framework of Rahmstorf (2004). The study found that climate scepticism is currently not widespread in Britain. Although uncertainty and scepticism about the potential impacts of climate change were fairly common, both trend and attribution scepticism were far less prevalent. It further showed that the different types of scepticism are strongly interrelated. Although this may suggest that the general public does not clearly distinguish between the different aspects of the climate debate, there is a clear gradation in prevalence along the Rahmstorf typology. Climate scepticism appeared particularly common among older individuals from lower socio-economic backgrounds who are politically conservative and hold traditional values; while it is less common among younger individuals from higher socio-economic backgrounds who hold self-transcendence and environmental values. The finding that climate scepticism is rooted in people's core values and worldviews may imply a coherent and encompassing sceptical outlook on climate change. However, attitudinal certainty appeared mainly concentrated in non-sceptical groups, suggesting that climate sceptical views are not held very firmly. Implications of the findings for climate change communication and engagement are discussed.     

Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1 m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20–25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.     

The Polonez Cove Formation of King George Island, Antarctica: stratigraphy, facies and implications for mid-Cenozoic cryosphere development

The middle to late Oligocene Polonez Cove Formation, exposed on south‐eastern King George Island, South Shetland Islands, provides rare evidence of mid‐Cenozoic West Antarctic cryosphere evolution. A revised lithostratigraphy and facies analysis and a review of the palaeoenvironmental significance of the formation are presented here. The diamictite‐dominated basal member of the formation (Krakowiak Glacier Member) records the presence and retreat of marine‐based ice on a shallow continental shelf. Five overlying members are recognized. These consist of basaltic‐sourced sedimentary rocks and lavas and represent a variety of shoreface and shallow continental shelf environments in an active volcanic setting. These units contain diverse reworked and ice‐rafted exotic clasts that become sparse towards the top of the formation, suggesting a continuing but waning glacial influence. New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates from interbedded lava flows indicate a late Oligocene age (25·6–27·2 Ma) for the Polonez Cove Formation, but are slightly younger than skeletal carbonate Sr‐isotope ages obtained previously (28·5–29·8 Ma). There is evidence for wet‐based subice conditions at the base of the Polonez Cove Formation, but no sedimentary facies to suggest substantial meltwater. This may reflect a subpolar setting or may result from lack of preservation or a high‐energy depositional environment. A northern Antarctic Peninsula/South Shetland Islands provenance is probable for most non‐basaltic clasts, but certain lithologies with possible origins in the Transantarctic and Ellsworth Mountains also occur sparsely throughout the formation. There is evidence to suggest that the presence of such far‐travelled clasts within subglacially deposited facies at the base of the formation reflects the advance of a local ice cap across marine sediments containing the clasts as ice‐rafted material. The presence of these clasts suggests that extensive marine‐based ice drained into the southern Weddell Sea region and that a strong Weddell Sea surface current operated both before and during deposition of the Polonez Cove Formation.     

Ries Bunte Breccia revisited: Indications for the presence of water in Itzing and Otting drill cores and implications for the emplacement process

We reassessed two drill cores of the Bunte Breccia deposits of the Ries crater, Germany. The objectives of our study were the documentation of evidence for water in the Bunte Breccia, the evaluation of how that water influenced the emplacement processes, and from which preimpact water reservoir it was derived. The Bunte Breccia in both cores can be structured into a basal layer composed mainly of local substrate material, overlain by texturally and compositionally diverse, crater‐derived breccia units. The basal layer is composed of the youngest sediments (Tertiary clays and Upper Jurassic limestone) and has a razor‐sharp boundary to the upper breccia units, which are composed of older rocks of Upper Jurassic to Upper Triassic age. Sparse material exchange occurred between the basal layer and the rest of the Bunte Breccia. Fluids predominantly came from the Tertiary and the Upper Triassic sandstone formation. In the basal layer, Tertiary clays were subjected to intense, ductile deformation, indicating saturation with water. This suggests that water was mixed into the matrix, creating a fluidized basal layer with a strong shear localization. In the upper units, Upper Triassic sandstones are intensely deformed by granular flow. The texture requires that the rocks were disaggregated into granular sand. Vaporization of pore water probably aided fragmentation of these rocks. In the Otting core, hot suevite (T > 600 °C) covered the Bunte Breccia shortly after its emplacement. Vertically oriented gas escape pipes in suevite partly emanate directly at the contact to the Bunte Breccia. They indicate that the Bunte Breccia contained a substantial amount of water in the upper part that was vaporized and escaped through these vents.     

Increasing non-linearity of the storage-discharge relationship in sub-Arctic catchments

The Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate. We hypothesis that as seasonally frozen soils thaw and recede in extent as a response to this warming, flow path diversity and thus hydrologic connectivity increases. This enhanced hydrologic connectivity then increases the non-linearity of the storage-discharge relationship in a catchment. The objective of this study is to test this hypothesis by quantifying trends and spatio-temporal differences in the degree of linearity in the storage-discharge relationships for 16 catchments within Northern Sweden from 1950 to 2018. We demonstrate a clear increase in non-linearity of the storage-discharge relationship over time for all catchments with 75% showing a statistically significant increase in non-linearity. Spring has significantly more linear storage-discharge relationships than summer for most catchments (75%) supporting the idea that seasonally frozen soils with a low degree of hydrological connectivity have a linear storage-discharge relationship. For the period considered, spring also showed greater change in storage-discharge relationship trends than summer signifying that changes in recessions are primarily occurring during the thawing period. Separate storage-discharge analyses combined with preceding winter conditions demonstrated that especially cold winters with little snow yielded springs and summers with more linear storage-discharge relationships. We show that streamflow recession analysis reflects ongoing hydrological change of an arctic landscape as well as offering new metrics for tracking change across arctic and sub-arctic landscapes.     

Growth of volcanic ash aggregates in the presence of liquid water and ice: an experimental approach

Key processes influencing the aggregation of volcanic ash and hydrometeors are examined with an experimental method employing vibratory pan aggregation. Mechanisms of aggregation in the presence of hail and ice pellets, liquid water (≤30?wt%), and mixed water phases are investigated at temperatures of 18 and ?20?°C. The experimentally generated aggregates, examined in hand sample, impregnated thin sections, SEM imagery, and X-ray microtomography, closely match natural examples from phreatomagmatic phases of the 27?ka Oruanui and 2010 Eyjafjallaj?kull eruptions. Laser diffraction particle size analysis of parent ash and aggregates is also used to calculate the first experimentally derived aggregation coefficients that account for changing liquid water contents and subzero temperatures. These indicate that dry conditions (<5–10?wt% liquid) promote strongly size selective collection of sub-63?μm particles into aggregates (given by aggregation coefficients >1). In contrast, liquid-saturated conditions (>15–20?wt% liquid) promote less size selective processes. Crystalline ice was also capable of preferentially selecting volcanic ash <31?μm under liquid-free conditions in a two-stage process of electrostatic attraction followed by ice sintering. However, this did not accumulate more than a monolayer of ash at the ice surface. These quantitative relationships may be used to predict the timescales and characteristics of aggregation, such as aggregate size spectra, densities, and constituent particle size characteristics, when the initial size distribution and water content of a volcanic cloud are known. The presence of an irregularly shaped, millimeter-scale vacuole at the center of natural aggregates was also replicated during interaction of ash and melting ice pellets, followed by sublimation. Fine-grained rims were formed by adding moist aggregates to a dry mixture of sub-31?μm ash, which adhered by electrostatic forces and sparse liquid bridges. From this, we infer that the fine-grained outer layers of natural aggregates reflect recycled exposure of moist aggregates to regions of volcanic clouds that are relatively dry and dominated by <31?μm ash.     

The near-miss of a tsunami and an emergency evacuation: the post-exposure effects on future emergency preparedness and evacuation intentions

Natural Hazards - In the early hours of January 23, 2018, residents of Port Alberni, British Columbia, Canada, awoke to the sounds of the community’s tsunami warning system, alerting them of...