Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review

The response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming, one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m^?2 K^?1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.     

A UML‐based Representation of Spatio‐Temporal Evolution in Road Network Data

Geographic features change over time, this change being the result of some kind of event. Most database systems used in GIS are relational in nature, capturing change by exhaustively storing all versions of data, or updates replace previous versions. This stems from the inherent difficulty of modelling geographic objects and associated data in relational tables, and this is compounded when the necessary time dimension is introduced to represent how these objects evolve. This article describes an object‐oriented (OO) spatio‐temporal conceptual data model called the Feature Evolution Model (FEM), which can be used for the development of a spatio‐temporal database management system (STDBMS). Object versioning techniques developed in the fields of Computer Aided Design (CAD) and engineering design are utilized in the design. The model is defined using the Unified Modelling Language (UML), and exploits the expressiveness of OO technology by representing both geographic entities and events as objects. Further, the model overcomes the limitations inherent in relational approaches in representing aggregation of objects to form more complex, compound objects. A management object called the evolved feature maintains a temporally ordered list of references to features thus representing their evolution. The model is demonstrated by its application to road network data.     

A four‐dimensional agent‐based model: A case study of forest‐fire smoke propagation

Dynamic geospatial complex systems are inherently four‐dimensional (4D) processes and there is a need for spatio‐temporal models that are capable of realistic representation for improved understanding and analysis. Such systems include changes of geological structures, dune formation, landslides, pollutant propagation, forest fires, and urban densification. However, these phenomena are frequently analyzed and represented with modeling approaches that consider only two spatial dimensions and time. Consequently, the main objectives of this study are to design and develop a modeling framework for 4D agent‐based modeling, and to implement the approach to the 4D case study for forest‐fire smoke propagation. The study area is central and southern British Columbia and the western parts of Alberta, Canada for forest fires that occurred in the summer season of 2017. The simulation results produced realistic spatial patterns of the smoke propagation dynamics.     

Impact of recycling and lateral sediment input on grain size fining trends—Implications for reconstructing tectonic and climate forcings in ancient sedimentary systems

Grain size trends in basin stratigraphy are thought to preserve a rich record of the climatic and tectonic controls on landscape evolution. Stratigraphic models assume that over geological timescales, the downstream profile of sediment deposition is in dynamic equilibrium with the spatial distribution of tectonic subsidence in the basin, sea level and the flux and calibre of sediment supplied from mountain catchments. Here, we demonstrate that this approach in modelling stratigraphic responses to environmental change is missing a key ingredient: the dynamic geomorphology of the sediment routing system. For three large alluvial fans in the Iglesia basin, Argentine Andes we measured the grain size of modern river sediment from fan apex to toe and characterise the spatial distribution of differential subsidence for each fan by constructing a 3D model of basin stratigraphy from seismic data. We find, using a self‐similar grain size fining model, that the profile of grain size fining on all three fans cannot be reproduced given the subsidence profile measured and for any sediment supply scenario. However, by adapting the self‐similar model, we demonstrate that the grain size trends on each fan can be effectively reproduced when sediment is not only sourced from a single catchment at the apex of the system, but also laterally, from tributary catchments and through fan surface recycling. Without constraint on the dynamic geomorphology of these large alluvial systems, signals of tectonic and climate forcing in grain size data are masked and would be indecipherable in the geological record. This has significant implications for our ability to make sensitive, quantitative reconstructions of external boundary conditions from the sedimentary record.     

Extended two-body problem for rotating rigid bodies

Given the interest in future space missions devoted to the exploration of key moons in the solar system and that may involve libration point orbits, an efficient design strategy for transfers between moons is introduced that leverages the dynamics in these multi-body systems. The moon-to-moon analytical transfer (MMAT) method is introduced, comprised of a general methodology for transfer design between the vicinities of the moons in any given system within the context of the circular restricted three-body problem, useful regardless of the orbital planes in which the moons reside. A simplified model enables analytical constraints to efficiently determine the feasibility of a transfer between two different moons moving in the vicinity of a common planet. In particular, connections between the periodic orbits of such two different moons are achieved. The strategy is applicable for any type of direct transfers that satisfy the analytical constraints. Case studies are presented for the Jovian and Uranian systems. The transition of the transfers into higher-fidelity ephemeris models confirms the validity of the MMAT method as a fast tool to provide possible transfer options between two consecutive moons.

     

Noble gas systematics of deep rift zone glasses from Loihi Seamount, Hawaii

We report new noble gas fusion and crushing data for six pillow rim glasses, recovered between 3 and 5 km water depth on the south rift zone of Loihi Seamount, Hawaii. Helium abundances of the glasses vary from 0.3 to 2.3 μcc/g, with ⁴He/³He ratios between 30000 and 27000 (24–27 R_A), similar to previously reported values. The neon data form a correlation line which is similar to the Loihi-Kilauea line reported by Honda et al. [1], but extends to much higher ratios, up to 12.9 and 0.0382 for the ²⁰Ne/²²Ne and ²¹Ne/²²Ne ratios, respectively. This provides conclusive evidence for the suggestion that the Hawaiian plume, thought to originate in the lower mantle, has a solar-like ²⁰Ne/²²Ne composition [1], but a slightly higher ²¹Ne/²²Ne ratio. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios of the deep rift-zone glasses are as high as 2600, and show a positive correlation with neon isotopic ratios. In contrast to neon and argon, all xenon isotopic compositions are isotopically indistinguishable from air, which either suggests preferential atmospheric contamination of xenon, or could indicate an atmospheric xenon isotopic composition for the lower mantle.     

The location of deep salinity sources in the Israeli Coastal aquifer

The salinization process of the Israeli Coastal aquifer has led to an average concentration of about 200 mgCl/l with a significant number of discrete salinity plumes in the middle and southern regions. The salinity of these plumes is high (500–1000 mgCl/l) and is increasing rapidly. Geochemical evidence has suggested that the salinity source in the Be'er Tuvia plume (in the south part of the aquifer) is at the bottom of the aquifer. This paper describes a solution of the source inverse problem and its application in the Be'er Tuvia plume. A transient two-dimensional finite element model was solved and the source terms were computed at each node in a 14×14 km² area. An error analysis has shown that when no errors are introduced in the input data the reconstruction is perfect. The results of a sensitivity analysis are presented and the actual reconstruction errors are estimated. Applying the model in the Be'er Tuvia region indicates that a salinity source exists about 1 km to the west and 1.5 km to the north of the center of the salinity plume. This source is believed to be the plume source.     

晚泥盆世海岸平原的沼泽沉积——沉积特征和碳酸盐层序地层学意义

沼泽碳酸盐是盐水从淡到浓的沉积物,具有成土作用的证据,是环海或湖的典型沉积物(Freytet,1973; Freytet 和Plaziat,1982; Alonso-Zarza,2003).如果气候允许,它们能形成在位于海岸平原和潮坪的浅水、富碳、由淡到浓的盐水沼泽中 (Monty和Hardie,1976;Shinn,1983; Platt和Wright,1992).在这些边缘海环境中,沼泽沉积能覆盖数千平方千米,可能伴随发生喀斯特和钙质结壳岩现象(Platt和Wright,1992).