The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

Climatic and environmental reconstructions based on fossil assemblages from middle devensian (Weichselian) deposits of the river Thames at south kensington, central London, UK

Fossiliferous silts within the Late Pleistocene Kempton Park Gravel, of the River Thames Valley, were exposed in 1980 during foundation works for the Ismaili Centre in South Kensington, London. The results of a multidisciplinary study of the geomorphology, sediments, fossil plants, vertebrates, molluscs, ostracods and insects are reported. The silts were deposited under two distinct climatic regimes; a lower unit accumulated when the climate was arctic and an upper when the temperatures were at least as warm as those of the present day. Both these units occupy the same channel system and are separated from one another by less than a metre of sediment, implying that the climatic change was probably sudden and intense. The strongest evidence for this climatic difference comes from a study of the Coleoptera, which show an almost complete replacement of the arctic element in the fauna by a suite of temperate species. Palaeotemperature reconstructions using the Mutual Climatic Range method, based on the coleopteran assemblages from the lower unit, suggest that the mean temperature of the warmest month was 9±2 °C and that of the coldest month −22±10 °C. For the upper unit the mean temperature of the warmest month had risen to about 17 °C and that of the coldest month to about −4 °C. The episode represented by the lower unit, with its arctic climate, had not previously been recognized in the Thames Valley. The fauna from the upper, temperate, unit is very similar to that from other sites in the Kempton Park Gravel, such as that from Isleworth, 10 km upriver, which, like the upper unit at the Ismaili Centre, was characterized by the virtual absence of trees. It would appear that in such cases this treelessness does not indicate cold conditions, equivalent to those of the modern tundra, but may instead result from a combination of ecological and temporal factors. The value of multidisciplinary studies in reaching such conclusions is emphasized.The temperate episode described here is correlated with the thermal maximum at the early part of the Upton Warren Interstadial Complex. An earlier suggestion, based on amino acid epimerization ratios, that the Upton Warren Interstadial correlates with Oxygen Isotope Sub-stage 5a is not supported by the data, which show no evidence of the forested environments that characterized this period in both Britain and the adjacent Continent. It is thought that the temperate deposits at the Ismaili Centre belong to the Middle (Pleniglacial), rather than the Early, Devensian (Weichselian) and are equivalent to Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.     

The abundance of ammonium in the granites of central Spain,and the behaviour of the ammonium ion during anatexis and fractional crystallization

Summary The granites of the Sistema Central Espanol are richer in ammonium than those of most other regions, and have a mean NH₄ ⁺ content of 84 ppm (range = 1–243 ppm). Among the possible causes for the high level of ammonium, a high proportion of organic-rich pelitic protolith and reducing conditions during anatexis are considered to be the most significant. The behaviour of the ammonium ion during magmatic differentiation is discussed by reference to its distribution in the Pedrobernardo layered intrusion: ammonium is depleted in the final liquid fraction, but there is no relative fractionation of NH₄ ⁺ and K⁺. The depletion of the melt in NH₄ ⁺ during crystallization is attributed to its removal by biotite and to a lesser extent by K-feldspar. The behaviour of the ammonium ion during anatexis is discussed with reference to the Peña Negra migmatite complex. It is shown that large amounts of NH₄ ⁺ are present in these high grade metamorphic rocks, and that NH₄ ⁺ is preferentially partitioned into the restite fraction during partial melting. These relationships are attributed to the preferential incorporation of NH₄ ⁺ into potassic host minerals in the order: biotite > muscovite > K-feldspar.

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Ammonium in Zentralspanischen Graniten, und das Verhalten des Ammonium-Ions während Anatexis und fraktionierter Kristallisation

Zusammenfassung Die Granite des Sistema Central Espanol sind reicher an Ammonium als die der meisten anderen Regionen, und haben einen durchschnittlichen NH₄ ⁺ Gehalt von 84 ppm (von 1-243 ppm). Der hohe Ammoniumgehalt könme auf einen hohen Anteil peiitischer Ausgangsgesteine, die reich an organischen Material sind, and auf reduzierende Bedingungen während der Anatexis zurückgehen. Das Verhalten des Ammonium-Ions während magmatischer Differentiation wind in Hinblick seiner Verteilung in der geschichteten Intrusion von Pedrobernardo diskutiert: Ammonium ist in der finalen Schmelzfraktion angereichert, aber es gibt keine relative Fraktionierung von NH₄ ⁺ and K⁺. Die Verarmung der Schmelze an NH₄ ⁺ wahrend der Kristallisation geht darauf zurück, daß NH₄ ⁺ von Biotit and in einem geringen Ausmaß von K-Feldspat aufgenommen wird. Das Verhalten des Ammonium-Ions während der Anatexis wird am Peña Negra Migmatit-Komplex diskutiert. Es zeigt rich, daß große Mengen von NH₄ ⁺ in diesen hochgradig metamorphen Gesteinen vorkommen, and das NH₄ ⁺ während teilweiser Aufschmelzung vorzugsweise in der Restit-Fraktion angereichert wird. Diese Beziehungen gehen auf die vorzugsweise Aufnahme von NH₄ ⁺ in Kali-führenden Gastmineralen zurück, and zwar in folgender Ordnung: Biotit > Muskovit > K-Feldspat.

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With 5 Figures     

Calculating surface water PCO2 from foraminiferal organic δC

The δ¹³C of organic matter bound within the crystal lattice of foraminiferal calcite tests may provide a potential tracer of the isotopic composition of the surface water primary photosynthate. Using δ¹³C of the organic matter extracted from the crystal lattice and the calcite test, it is theoretically possible to estimate the paleo-surface water pCO₂. We have tailored this technique initially for the subpolar planktonic foraminifera species Globigerina bulloides. Initial surface water pCO₂ estimates from deep-sea core BOFS 5K (50°41.3′N, 21°51.9′W, water depth 3547 m) indicate that the northeast Atlantic Ocean may have been a greater sink for CO₂ during the last glacial than during the Holocene. Greatly reduced benthic foraminifera abundances, especially phytodetritus feeders, in BOFS 5K during the last glacial indicates low surface productivity. This rules out a productivity-driven CO₂ sink. The enhanced glacial CO₂ sink must, therefore, have results from a southwards shift of the centre of deep water formation.     

Evidence for freeze–thaw events and their implications for rock weathering in northern Canada

Discussions regarding weathering in cold environments generally centre on mechanical processes and on the freeze–thaw mechanism in particular. Despite the almost ubiquitous assumption of freeze–thaw weathering, unequivocal proof of interstitial rock water actually freezing and thawing is singularly lacking. Equally, many studies have used the crossing of 0 °C, or values close to that, as the basis for determining the number of ‘freeze–thaw events’. In order to assess the weathering regime at a site in northern Canada, temperatures were collected at the surface, 1 cm and 3 cm depth for sets of paving bricks, with exposures both vertical and at 45°, orientated to the four cardinal directions. Temperature data were collected at 1 min intervals for 1 year. These data provide unequivocal proof for the occurrence of the freezing and thawing of water on and within the rock (freeze–thaw events). The freeze event is evidenced by the exotherm associated with the release of latent heat as the water actually freezes. This is thought to be the ?rst record of such events from a ?eld situation. More signi?cantly, it was found that the temperature at which freezing occurred varied signi?cantly through the year and that on occasion the 1 cm depth froze prior to the rock surface. The change in freeze temperature is thought to be due to the chemical weathering of the material (coupled with on‐going salt inputs via the melting of snowfall), which, it is shown, could occur throughout the winter despite air temperatures down to ?30 °C. This ?nding regarding chemical weathering is also considered to be highly signi?cant. A number of thermal stress events were also recorded, suggesting that rock weathering in cold regions is a synergistic combination of various chemical and mechanical weathering mechanisms. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precise/ Small Sample Size Determinations of Lithium Isotopic Compositions of Geological Reference Materials and Modern Seawater by MC-ICP-MS

The Li isotope ratios of four international rock reference materials, USGS BHVO-2, GSJ JB-2, JG-2, JA-1 and modern seawater (Mediterranean, Pacific and North Atlantic) were determined using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS). These reference materials of natural samples were chosen to span a considerable range in Li isotope ratios and cover several different matrices in order to provide a useful benchmark for future studies. Our new analytical technique achieves significantly higher precision and reproducibility (< ± O.3%o 2s) than previous methods, with the additional advantage of requiring very low sample masses of ca . 2 ng of Li.     

Li/Ca in multiple species of benthic and planktonic foraminifera: thermocline, latitudinal, and glacial-interglacial variation

Li/Ca ratios were measured in planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a variety of hydrographic settings to investigate the factors influencing lithium incorporation into foraminiferal tests including temperature, dissolution, pressure, and interspecies differences. Down-core measurements of planktonic (Orbulina universa, Globigerinoides ruber, and Globigerinoides sacculifer) and benthic foraminifera (calcitic Cibicides wuellerstorfi and aragonitic Hoeglandina elegans) show a systematic variation in Li/Ca with δ¹⁸O through the last glacial-interglacial transition. All species examined exhibit an increase in Li/Ca between 14 to 50% from the Holocene to the last glacial maximum. Li/Ca generally increases with decreasing temperature as seen in a latitudinal transect of planktonic O. universa and down-slope benthic species along the Bahama Bank margins. Postdepositional dissolution possibly causes a decrease in planktonic foraminiferal Li/Ca along the Sierra Leone Rise, and increased water depth causes a decrease in benthic foraminiferal Li/Ca in the deep Caribbean. However, none of these effects are sufficient to account for the observed glacial-interglacial changes. Physiological factors such as calcification rate may affect the Li/Ca content of foraminiferal calcite. The calcification rate in turn may be a function of carbonate ion concentration of ambient ocean water. This work shows that incorporation of lithium by foraminifera appears to be influenced by factors other than seawater composition and does not appear to be dominated by changes in temperature, dissolution, or pressure. We hypothesize that the consistent increase in foraminiferal Li/Ca during the last glacial maximum may be linked to changes in seawater carbonate ion concentration. Important parameters to be tested include calcification rate and foraminiferal test size and weight. If foraminiferal Li/Ca is dominantly controlled by calcification rate as a function of seawater carbonate ion concentration, then Li/Ca may act as a proxy of past atmospheric CO₂.     

Thermo-mechanical structure beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan

We investigate the thermo-mechanical properties beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan by constructing a shear strength profile from a vertical stratified rheological structure. The stratified rheological structure is estimated based on the recently developed thermal structure and its likely composition. Subduction–collision in the young orogenic belts and the thick accretionary wedge make a significant contribution to the growth of sialic crust in the hinterland. The sialic bulk crust not only results in a low seismic velocity but also produces weak crust in the hinterland. The earthquake depth–frequency distribution in the foreland and hinterland correlates very well with the regimes of the brittle/ductile transition revealed in the strength profile. Our results show that the observed two-layer seismicity in the foreland is due to a moderate geotherm and an intermediate mafic bulk composition; while single-layer seismicity in the hinterland is due to its felsic bulk composition. In the foreland, the mechanically strong crust (MSC) and the mechanically strong lithosphere (MSL) coincide with frequent seismicity. The shallow MSC in the hinterland is consistent with the 20- to 25-km seismicity occurring there. The total lithospheric integrated strength (LIS) in the hinterland is only about half of that in the foreland, suggesting a weak lower crust and lithosphere mantle in the hinterland. The results confirm that the earthquake cutoff depth is a proxy for temperature. The calculated decrease of effective elastic thickness (EET) from the orogenic margin (foreland) to the center (hinterland) is consistent with the results of flexure modeling in most orogenic belts. Due to the weak LIS in the hinterland, crustal thinning and rifting may occur in the future. Our results, thus, suggest that the mechanical structure is also closely related to the composition and is not directly reflected in the thermal structure.     

Rock albedo and monitoring of thermal conditions in respect of weathering: some expected and some unexpected results

Broadly speaking, there is, at least within geomorphic circles, a general acceptance that rocks with low albedos will warm both faster and to higher temperatures than rocks with high albedos, reflectivity influencing radiative warming. Upon this foundation are built notions of weathering in respect of the resulting thermal differences, both at the grain scale and at the scale of rock masses. Here, a series of paving bricks painted in 20 per cent reflectivity intervals from black through to white were used to monitor albedo‐influenced temperatures at a site in northern Canada in an attempt to test this premise. Temperatures were collected, for five months, for the rock surface and the base of the rock, the blocks being set within a mass of local sediment. Resulting thermal data did indeed show that the dark bricks were warmer than the white but only when their temperatures were equal to or cooler than the air temperature. As brick temperature exceeded that of the air, so the dark and light bricks moved to parity; indeed, the white bricks frequently became warmer than the dark. It is argued that this ‘negating’ of the albedo influence on heating is a result of the necessity of the bricks, both white and black, to convect heat away to the surrounding cooler air; the darker brick, being hotter, initially convects faster than the white as a product of the temperature difference between the two media. Thus, where the bricks become significantly hotter than the air, they lose energy to that air and so their respective temperatures become closer, the albedo influence being superceded by the requirement to equilibrate with the surrounding air. It is argued that this finding will have importance to our understanding of weathering in general and to our perceptions of weathering differences between different lithologies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.