Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

Hydrogen emissions from Erebus volcano, Antarctica

The continuous measurement of molecular hydrogen (H₂) emissions from passively degassing volcanoes has recently been made possible using a new generation of low-cost electrochemical sensors. We have used such sensors to measure H₂, along with SO₂, H₂O and CO₂, in the gas and aerosol plume emitted from the phonolite lava lake at Erebus volcano, Antarctica. The measurements were made at the crater rim between December 2010 and January 2011. Combined with measurements of the long-term SO₂ emission rate for Erebus, they indicate a characteristic H₂ flux of 0.03?kg s^–1 (2.8?Mg? day^–1). The observed H₂ content in the plume is consistent with previous estimates of redox conditions in the lava lake inferred from mineral compositions and the observed CO₂/CO ratio in the gas plume (～0.9 log units below the quartz–fayalite–magnetite buffer). These measurements suggest that H₂ does not combust at the surface of the lake, and that H₂ is kinetically inert in the gas/aerosol plume, retaining the signature of the high-temperature chemical equilibrium reached in the lava lake. We also observe a cyclical variation in the H₂/SO₂ ratio with a period of ～10?min. These cycles correspond to oscillatory patterns of surface motion of the lava lake that have been interpreted as signs of a pulsatory magma supply at the top of the magmatic conduit.     

Cosmological Parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies: Status and Prospects

A survey is made of the present constraints on cosmological parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Ferrara hard X-ray facility for testing/calibrating hard X-ray focusing telescopes

We will report on the current configuration of the X-ray facility of the University of Ferrara recently used to perform reflectivity tests of mosaic crystals and to calibrate the experiment JEM–X aboard Integral. The facility is now located in the technological campus of the University of Ferrara in a new building (named LARIX laboratory= ̳LARge ̳Italian ̳X-ray facility) that includes a tunnel 100 m long with, on the sides, two large experimental rooms. The facility is being improved for determining the optical axis of mosaic crystals in Laue configuration, for calibrating Laue lenses and hard X-ray mirror prototypes.     

Spectroscopic Characterization of Compost at Different Maturity Stages

We studied the physicochemical and molecular changes of compost during its maturation within 60, 90, and 150 days after the composting process. Moreover, the changes were also studied in compost residues after sequential removal of lipidic compounds. Infrared DRIFT spectrometry and ¹³C‐CPMAS‐NMR spectroscopy indicate that the molecular composition of compost changes dramatically during the stabilization period. The most decomposable components, mainly represented by bioavailable lipidic and peptidic structures, were progressively mineralized passing from 60 days to longer periods of compost stabilization. At increasing maturity stages, the composition of organic matter underwent a progressive enrichment in stable hydrophobic and ligno‐cellulosic material. The sequential extraction of lipidic compounds allowed an improved characterization of substrates and confirmed the outlined progressive transformation of compost. Compost may well be chosen on the basis of selected characteristics for environmental applications.     

Geometric characteristics and evolution of a tidal channel network in experimental setting

This paper reports on a laboratory study that aims to reproduce a tidal channel network, in order to enhance the understanding of the morphodynamic evolution of the channel characteristics as the network expands and finally reaches equilibrium. A high‐resolution laser system scanned the bed topography at different time steps creating multiple digital elevation models of the channel network. Two hundred and seventy individual channel segments are analyzed and cross‐correlated in terms of their width, depth and length. The laboratory results show positive linear correlations between depth and width as well as between length and width of channel segments of the network configuration at final equilibrium. In a downstream direction, channels appear to widen more than they deepen, indirectly a sign that discharge has a stronger control on channel width than on depth. In contrast to fluvial drainage networks that commonly display fractal and scale‐invariant behavior, the geometric properties of the experimental tidal creek network shows scale dependence. Channel attributes exhibit consistent patterns of exponentially decreasing abundance, with increasing creek length, depth and width. The nature of the observed exponential distributions within creek attributes (width, depth, length) allows for statistical predictability of relative creek attribute dimensions downstream and through time. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

We analyze decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region using observational datasets over the period 1850–2009 and a regional climate model simulation for the period 1960–2000, focusing in particular on the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Our results show that decadal variability associated with the winter and summer manifestations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and SNAO respectively) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly contribute to decadal climate anomalies over the Mediterranean region during these seasons. Over 30% of decadal variance in DJF and JJA precipitation in parts of the Mediterranean region can be explained by NAO and SNAO variability respectively. During JJA, the AMO explains over 30% of regional surface air temperature anomalies and Mediterranean Sea surface temperature anomalies, with significant influence also in the transition seasons. In DJF, only Mediterranean SST still significantly correlates with the AMO while regional surface air temperature does not. Also, there is no significant NAO influence on decadal Mediterranean surface air temperature anomalies during this season. A simulation with the PROTHEUS regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model is utilized to investigate processes determining regional decadal changes during the 1960–2000 period, specifically the wetter and cooler 1971–1985 conditions versus the drier and warmer 1986–2000 conditions. The simulation successfully captures the essence of observed decadal changes. Model set-up suggests that AMO variability is transmitted to the Mediterranean/European region and the Mediterranean Sea via atmospheric processes. Regional feedbacks involving cloud cover and soil moisture changes also appear to contribute to observed changes. If confirmed, the linkage between Mediterranean temperatures and the AMO may imply a certain degree of regional decadal climate predictability. The AMO and other decadal influences outlined here should be considered along with those from long-term increases in greenhouse gas forcings when making regional climate out-looks for the Mediterranean 10–20?years out.     

Physical properties and petrologic description of rock samples from an IOCG mineralized area in the northern Fennoscandian Shield, Sweden

The Tjårrojåkka Fe–Cu-prospect in northern Sweden is considered an example of a Fe-oxide Cu–Au (IOCG) deposit and is hosted in metamorphosed Paleoproterozoic volcanic and intrusive rocks. Rock samples from 24 outcrops were collected for petrophysical analysis (magnetic susceptibility, remanent magnetization, variation of magnetic susceptibility with temperature, Curie temperature and density). The major Cu-prospect in the area has been studied by magnetic and electron microprobe analyses of four selected rock samples. The samples are from an exploration well that intersects the main Cu-mineralized body.The magnetic analyses show that magnetite is the dominant magnetic mineral, while hematite and other Fe-minerals are present in minor amounts. The electron microprobe observations confirm the presence of magnetite and further indicate that hematite is an alteration product of magnetite. Moreover, microprobe observations indicate that Fe-sulfides are present in negligible amounts in the samples from the Tjårrojåkka area. The strong spatial relationship of Cu-minerals (e.g., chalcopyrite) and the oxidation of magnetite to hematite suggest that the presence of rocks with low magnetic susceptibility in areas dominated by high susceptibility rocks may be a signal of related Cu-prospects.     

A nonlinear macroelement model for the seismic analysis of masonry buildings

The macroelement technique for modelling the nonlinear response of masonry panels is particularly efficient and suitable for the analysis of the seismic behaviour of complex walls and buildings. The paper presents a macroelement model specifically developed for simulating the cyclic in‐plane response of masonry walls, with possible applications in nonlinear static and dynamic analysis of masonry structures. The model, starting from a previously developed macroelement model, has been refined in the representation of flexural–rocking and shear damage modes, and it is capable of fairly simulating the experimental response of cyclic tests performed on masonry piers. By means of two internal degrees of freedom, the two‐node macroelement permits to represent the coupling of axial and flexural response as well as the interaction of shear and flexural damage. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.