Flooding scenarios due to land subsidence and sea‐level rise: a case study for Lipari Island (Italy)

Archaeological and instrumental data indicate that the southern sector of the volcanic island of Lipari has been subsiding for the last 2100 years due to isostatic and tectonic factors, at variable rates of up to ~11 mm a^?1. Based on this data, a detailed marine flooding scenario for 2100 AD is provided for the bay of Marina Lunga in the eastern part of the island from (1) an ultra‐high‐resolution Digital Terrain and Marine Model (DTMM) generated from multibeam bathymetry (MB) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), (2) the rate of land subsidence from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and (3) the regional sea‐level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When land subsidence is considered, the upper bound of sea‐level rise is estimated at 1.36 m and 1.60 m for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. Here, we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore.     

Lithostratigraphic setting and P-T metamorphic evolution for the Dora Maira Massif along the Piedmont Zone boundary (middle Susa Valley,NW Alps)

A new structural and petrological study, associated with a detailed geological mapping, allowed to better understand the tectonic relationships between the Dora Maira Massif and the Piedmont Zone in the middle Susa Valley. In the study area, a thick sequence of calcschists, previously attributed to the stratigraphic cover of the Dora Maira, is interpreted as belonging to the Piedmont Zone. Four deformation phases were identified: D₁ represents the eclogite facies stage, D₂ developed under greenschist facies conditions, transposed the early foliation and was responsible for the development of the regional schistosity S₂. D₃ is characterized by close to open folds with N dipping axial surfaces and finally, D₄ developed macro-scale folds with E-dipping axial planes. Structural analyses allow to infer a relative timing for the tectonic contact between the two nappes which were coupled after the eclogite facies metamorphism but before the development of the S₂ foliation under greenschist facies conditions. Petrographic investigation into metapelite samples permitted to identify two main metamorphic assemblages within the Dora Maira polymetamorphic basement: M₁ (Phe + Pg + Cld + Grt + ChlI + Qtz + Rt) assemblage defines the S₁ relict foliation, while M₂ (Ms + Pg + Ab + ChlII + Qtz + Ilm ± Bt) assemblage is related to the regional foliation S₂. PERPLE_X pseudosection modelling allowed to reconstruct a P-T path for a garnet–chloritoid-bearing micaschist from the northern part of the Dora Maira Massif, which reached eclogite facies conditions at 18–20 kbar and 515–525°C (M₁/S₁ event) and then was exhumed during increasing T (10–11 kbar and 555–565°C). The M₂ assemblage defining the S₂ regional foliation developed at P < 7 kbar and T < 575°C. According to the structural evolution, the tectonic coupling between Dora Maira and Piedmont Zone took place during exhumation along the subduction channel.     

Sediment grain size and hydrodynamics in Mediterranean coastal lagoons: Integrated classification of abiotic parameters

Integrated classification maps were produced by combining sediment grain-size and hydrological data (water renewal time, WRT) from two Mediterranean lagoons, Lesina (LL) and Varano (LV), Italy. The geophysical characteristics of the two basins, derived from detailed bathymetric charts, are quite distinct: ～30% of LL (mean depth ～1 m) but only 3% of LV (mean depth ～3 m) is shallower than 1 m. The sediments of both lagoons are mainly composed of mud (～80%). A detailed multivariate analysis of grain-size data by EntropyMax classified the lagoon beds of LL and LV into five sedimentary facies. WRT data, computed by a hydrodynamic model, indicated different hydrological conditions in the two lagoons: LL showed a sharp west–east gradient, with a basin-wide average of ～190 days, whilst LV showed a fairly uniform distribution and a higher basin-wide average (～260 days). The distribution of sedimentary facies and water renewal times were combined in a composite map representing the distribution of environmental patterns. The approach outlined in this study can be used to improve zonation schemes by providing a hydromorphological perspective on transitional and coastal environments.     

Spectral and fragility evaluations of retrofitted structures through strength reduction and enhanced damping

A retrofit procedure for existing buildings called the "weakening and damping technique" (WED) is presented in this paper. Weakening of structures can limit the maximum response accelerations during severe ground motions, but leads to an increase in the displacements or inter-story drifts. Added damping by using viscous dampers, on the other hand, reduces the inter-story drifts and has no significant effect on total accelerations, when structures behave inelastically. The weakening and damping technique addresses the two main causes for both structural and nonstructural damage in structures. The weakening retrofit is particularly suitable for structures that have overstressed components and weak brittle components. In this paper, the advantages of the WeD are verified by nonlinear dynamic analysis and simplified spectral approach that has been modified to fit structures with additional damping devices. A hospital structure located in the San Femando Valley in California is selected as a case study. The results from both analyses show that the retrofit solution is feasible to reduce both structural acceleration and displacement. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the retrofitting method using different combinations of performance thresholds in accelerations and displacements through fragility analysis.     

The star formation history of redshift z ~ 2 galaxies： the role of the infrared prior

We build a sample of 298 spectroscopically-confirmed galaxies at redshift z - 2, selected in the z850-band from the GOODS-MUSIC catalog. By utilizing the rest frame 8 p.m luminosity as a proxy of the star formation rate （SFR）, we check the accuracy of the standard SED-fitting technique, finding it is not accurate enough to provide reliable estimates of the physical parameters of galaxies. We then develop a new SED-fitting method that includes the IR luminosity as a prior and a generalized Calzetti law with a variable Rv. Then we exploit the new method to re-analyze our galaxy sample, and to robustly determine SFRs, stellar masses and ages. We find that there is a general trend of increasing attenuation with the SFR. Moreover, we find that the SFRs range between a few to 103 M~ yr-1, the masses from 109 to 4 ~ 1011 Mo, and the ages from a few tens of Myr to more than 1 Gyr. We discuss how individual age measurements of highly attenuated objects indicate that dust must have formed within a few tens of Myr and already been copious at 〈 100 Myr. In addition, we find that low luminosity galaxies harbor, on average, significantly older stellar populations and are also less massive than brighter ones; we discuss how these findings and the well known ＇downsizing＇ scenario are consistent in a framework where less massive galaxies form first, but their star formation lasts longer. Finally, we find that the near-IR attenuation is not scarce for luminous objects, contrary to what is customarily assumed; we discuss how this affects the interpretation of the observed M,/L ratios.     

Three‐fold nature of coastal progradation during the Holocene eustatic highstand,Po Plain,Italy – close correspondence of stratal character with distribution patterns

Although general trends in transgressive to highstand sedimentary evolution of river‐mouth coastlines are well‐known, the details of the turnaround from retrogradational (typically estuarine) to aggradational–progradational (typically coastal/deltaic) stacking patterns are not fully resolved. This paper examines the middle to late Holocene eustatic highstand succession of the Po Delta: its stratigraphic architecture records a complex pattern of delta outbuilding and coastal progradation that followed eustatic stabilization, since around 7·7 cal kyr bp . Sedimentological, palaeoecological (benthic foraminifera, ostracods and molluscs) and compositional criteria were used to characterize depositional conditions and sediment‐dispersal pathways within a radiocarbon‐dated chronological framework. A three‐stage progradation history was reconstructed. First, as soon as eustasy stabilized (7·7 to 7·0 cal kyr bp ), rapid bay‐head delta progradation (ca 5 m year^?1), fed mostly by the Po River, took place in a mixed, freshwater and brackish estuarine environment. Second, a dominantly aggradational parasequence set of beach‐barrier deposits in the lower highstand systems tract (7·0 to 2·0 cal kyr bp ) records the development of a shallow, wave‐dominated coastal system fed alongshore, with elongated, modestly crescent beaches (ca 2·5 m year^?1). Third, in the last 2000 years, the development of faster accreting and more rapidly prograding (up to ca 15 m year^?1) Po delta lobes occurred into 30 m deep waters (upper highstand systems tract). This study documents the close correspondence of sediment character with stratal distribution patterns within the highstand systems tract. Remarkable changes in sediment characteristics, palaeoenvironments and direction of sediment transport occur across a surface named the ‘A–P surface’. This surface demarcates a major shift from dominantly aggradational (lower highstand systems tract) to fully progradational (upper highstand systems tract) parasequence stacking. In the Po system, this surface also reflects evolution from a wave‐dominated to river‐dominated deltaic system. Identifying the A–P surface through detailed palaeoecological and compositional data can help guide interpretation of highstand systems tracts in the rock record, especially where facies assemblages and their characteristic geometries are difficult to discern from physical sedimentary structures alone.     

Tracing clinothem geometry and sediment pathways in the prograding Holocene Po Delta system through integrated core stratigraphy

Though clinothem geometry represents a key control on fluid flow in reservoir modelling, tracing clinothem boundaries accurately is commonly limited by the lack of sufficiently precise outcrop or subsurface data. This study shows that in basin systems with strongly heterogeneous compositional signatures, the combination of bulk-sediment geochemistry and benthic foraminiferal distribution can help identify clinothem architecture and generate realistic models of 3D deltaic upbuilding and evolution. Middle-late Holocene deposits in the Po Delta area form an aggradational to progradational parasequence set that reveals the complex interaction of W–E Po Delta progradation, S-directed longshore currents (from Alpine rivers) and Apennines rivers supply. Unique catchment lithologies (ophiolite rocks and dolostones) were used to delineate basin-wide geochemical markers of sediment provenance (Cr and Mg) and to assess distinctive detrital signatures. The geochemical characterization of cored intervals across different components of the sediment routing system enabled a direct linkage between clinothem growth, transport pathways and provenance mixing to be established. On the other hand, abrupt microfaunal variations at clinothem boundaries were observed to reflect the palaeoenvironmental response to sharp changes in sediment flux and fluvial influence. This study documents the ability of an integrated geochemical and palaeoecological approach to delineate three distinct sources (Po, Alps and Apennines) that contributed to coastal progradation and to outline the otherwise lithologically cryptic geometries of clinothems that using conventional sedimentological methods it would be virtually impossible to restore.     

Changes in biomass structure and trophic status of the plankton communities in a highly dynamic ecosystem (Gulf of Venice,Northern Adriatic Sea)

The changes in the plankton biomass structure in relation to nutrient inputs were studied in the Gulf of Venice (Northern Adriatic Sea), an area characterized by a very marked trophic state variability. The investigation was carried out at two stations, in March, May and July 2005 and 2006, considering the whole water column. The size structure (from picoplankton to mesozooplankton) of both autotrophs and heterotrophs was analysed. Signals of diluted waters and nutrient inputs were more marked in 2005 than in 2006. In 2005, the total plankton biomass was almost double (87 ± 37 μg·C·l^?1) that in 2006 (44 ± 26 μg·C·l^?1). The variations were determined mainly by phytoplankton, with a 70% decrease, and a shift from a community dominated by microphytoplankton (49 ± 12%) in 2005 to one dominated by bacteria (43 ± 11%) in 2006 was observed. The relationship between the heterotrophic (H) and autotrophic (A) biomass indicated a rapid decline of the H/A ratio with increasing phytoplankton biomass. This study, although temporally limited, is consistent with the results reported for other marine environments and it seems to confirm the importance of nutrient inputs in structuring the biomass of plankton community.