Field investigations and monitoring as tools for modelling the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Appennines, Italy)

In the evening of February 28, 2004, a landslide took place in the village of Rossena (Northern Apennines, Italy), built at the base of a crag shaped in a basalt mass and wrapped in highly deformed formation of clay and shale with blocks. The failure damaged some houses, roads and fields but, fortunately, the medieval Rossena Castle, lying on the crag, was not involved at all. The goal of the study was to attain a technical and geological model of the slope to generate a landslide risk zonation, for regularity and development planning, so that the most correct action plans could be proposed. A detailed geological and geomorphological survey allowed for distinguishing the different gravitative landform of this area. It was very helpful to plan direct and indirect investigation, including borehole drillings, samplings, seismic (tomography), and electrical surveys. A monitoring system was built up immediately after the event (three wire extensometers and one inclinometer), then progressively substituted by a more complete one (two tiltmeters, two jointmeters, four inclinometers, two incremental extensometers, and two piezometers). The phenomenon can be divided in different parts. The central sector of the slope is interested by compound slides likely affecting the bedrock and can be considered, at present, the ‘engine’ of the whole instability framework. Indeed, as a consequence, in the upper portion of the slope the huge blocks in which the outer part of the crag is disjointed experienced vertical displacements and, locally, topplings. Finally, the lowest sector is affected by slow movements, probably connected to bedrock creep or rock flow, while the toe, really at the foot of the slope, by shallow landslides. This instability framework is the result of a complex evolution, starting almost more than 9,000 years ago, as testified from a radiocarbon dating. In more recent time (19th century), the Rossena landslide was also triggered by an earthquake that induced the partially breaking up of the crag, causing rock falls and cracks in the ground.     

An Overview on the Kuiper Belt and on the Origin of Jupiter-family Comets

The present paper reviews our current understanding of the dynamical structure of the Kuiper belt and of the origin of Jupiter-family comets. It also discusses the evolutionary scenarios that have been proposed so far to explain the observed structure of the Kuiper belt population. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tectonic structure and post-Hercynian evolution of the Serre, Calabrian Arc, southern Italy: Geological, petrological and radiometric evidences

Conflicting opinions exist concerning the structure and the post-Hercynian evolution of the Serre. The present paper deals with these topics on the basis of new geological, petrological and radiometric evidence. The composition of the so-called Stilo and Polia-Copanello units has been redefined. The above domains—former sections of upper and lower Palaeozoic continental crust respectively—came into contact, due to transcurrent movements 130–140 Ma ago. A significant vertical component during the transcurrent movements, probably, exhumed the former section of lower crust. The above domains, juxtaposed, were successively involved as a single kinematic body in the Alpine orogenesis. The results enable us to make inferences for the Calabrian Arc evolution and call attention to similarities between an Austro-Alpine element (Stilo + Polia-Copanello) of the Calabrian chain and a South-Alpine sector of the Alps (Ivrea + Ceneri zones).     

Late Triassic-Early Jurassic Paleokarst from the Ligurian Alps and its geological significance (Siderolitico Auct., Ligurian Briançonnais domain)

In the Ligurian Briançonnais domain, the thick Middle Triassic carbonateplatform units, formally known as the Costa Losera Fm. and S. Pietro dei Monti Dolomites, are followed by a significant unconformity separating them from the Rio di Nava neritic limestones of Bathonian age. According to the evolution of a passive continental margin, the end of subsidence and subsequent uplift led to the progressive erosion of the Triassic carbonate platform from outer to inner units, i.e., in the direction of the Ligurian Tethys. This erosion, possibly acting on a fault-controlled block system, created sedimentary sequences of differential composition, and the virtual absence of the entire Triassic complex and even the underlying Permian rocks. In the study area (and in many other locations belonging to the external Ormea unit), the so-called “briançonnais sedimentary gap” shows more than a nondepositional surface: the associated deposits (known as “Siderolitico” Auct.) include both red pelites between the above-mentioned units, and deep-penetrating karstic red breccia within the Ladinian carbonates. We performed detailed stratigraphic, microfacies and compositional analyses on the karsts and paleosoils associated with the unconformity in order to define their character, genesis and age. In addition, we discuss the regional context and importance of these deposits in a large-scale comparison with the classic Briançonnais domain and other locations of the Western Alpine Arch with the same unconformity. In light of these data, we propose an Upper Triassic to Early Jurassic age (until the Upper Bajocian?) for the karstic event in the Ligurian Alps.     

Probabilistic analysis of risk and mitigation of deepwater well blowouts and oil spills

The development of robust risk assessment procedures for offshore oil and gas operations is a major element for the assessment of the potential feedback between planned activities and the environment. We illustrate a methodological and computational framework conducive to (1) a quantitative risk analysis of deepwater well barrier failures and subsequent hydrocarbon release to the environment and (2) the analysis of the value of the deployment of conventional and/or innovative mitigation measures. Our methodological framework is grounded on historical records and combines the use of Dynamic Event Trees and Decision Trees from which we estimate probability of occurrence and impact of post-blowout events. Each sequence of response actions, which are undertaken immediately after the event or in the subsequent days, is considered within the context of appropriately structured event paths. This approach is conducive to an estimate of the expected value of key decisions and underlying technologies, with an emphasis on their potential to reduce the oil spill volume, which can critically impact the environment. Our study yields an original comparative analysis of diverse intervention strategies, and forms a basis to guiding future efforts towards the development and deployment of technologies and operating procedures yielding maximum benefit in terms of safety of operations and environmental protection.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for target-oriented and interval-oriented amplitude versus angle inversions with non-parametric priors and non-linear forward modellings

In geophysical inverse problems, the posterior model can be analytically assessed only in case of linear forward operators, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture, or generalized Gaussian prior models, continuous model properties, and Gaussian-distributed noise contaminating the observed data. For this reason, one of the major challenges of seismic inversion is to derive reliable uncertainty appraisals in cases of complex prior models, non-linear forward operators and mixed discrete-continuous model parameters. We present two amplitude versus angle inversion strategies for the joint estimation of elastic properties and litho-fluid facies from pre-stack seismic data in case of non-parametric mixture prior distributions and non-linear forward modellings. The first strategy is a two-dimensional target-oriented inversion that inverts the amplitude versus angle responses of the target reflections by adopting the single-interface full Zoeppritz equations. The second is an interval-oriented approach that inverts the pre-stack seismic responses along a given time interval using a one-dimensional convolutional forward modelling still based on the Zoeppritz equations. In both approaches, the model vector includes the facies sequence and the elastic properties of P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. The distribution of the elastic properties at each common-mid-point location (for the target-oriented approach) or at each time-sample position (for the time-interval approach) is assumed to be multimodal with as many modes as the number of litho-fluid facies considered. In this context, an analytical expression of the posterior model is no more available. For this reason, we adopt a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically evaluate the posterior uncertainties. With the aim of speeding up the convergence of the probabilistic sampling, we adopt a specific recipe that includes multiple chains, a parallel tempering strategy, a delayed rejection updating scheme and hybridizes the standard Metropolis–Hasting algorithm with the more advanced differential evolution Markov chain method. For the lack of available field seismic data, we validate the two implemented algorithms by inverting synthetic seismic data derived on the basis of realistic subsurface models and actual well log data. The two approaches are also benchmarked against two analytical inversion approaches that assume Gaussian-mixture-distributed elastic parameters. The final predictions and the convergence analysis of the two implemented methods proved that our approaches retrieve reliable estimations and accurate uncertainties quantifications with a reasonable computational effort.